PokerFink's 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 5)

PokerFink · #1 10-09-2007, 02:24 AM

Granted, both teams were at home, but Pittsburgh's 21-0 stomping of Seattle along with Indy's 33-14 demolition of Tampa was a solid statement to the superiority of the AFC. Only a little movement this week as things went pretty much as planned.

Disclaimer: My rankings are NOT a traditional power rankings. They are projective, meaning we are ranking based on where teams will finish. Rankings are done based on the playoff guidelines. For a full explanation, please see this post.

Also, when I list a team's NFL rank (such as Seattle's defensive rankings this week), it's generally based on DVOA unless otherwise noted.

[/b] 1. DALLAS (5-0) : In his first six games of 2006, Romo averaged 8.5 net (i.e. minus sack) yards per attempt with 12 scores and 5 picks. After that, he averaged 6.7 net ypa with 6 scores and 8 picks, plus 6 fumbles. I'm not saying that Romo will have a similar collapse in 2007 - every quarterback has to rebound from the occasional bad game - but it's something to keep an eye on. And Dallas still managed to win, setting up a 5-0 vs. 5-0 blockbuster for next week. NEXT: vs. New England.

 2. GREEN BAY (4-1) : Holy karmic retribution, Batman! In Week 1, the Packers benefited from a pair of muffed punts to beat Philadelphia. This week, it was the Packers who fumbled the game away, putting it on the ground three times. Toss in a pair of Favre interceptions - including a vintage "trying to make something happen" gunslinger disaster - and the Pack managed to lose despite outgaining Chicago by 154 yards. NEXT: vs. Washington.

 3. SEATTLE (3-2) : Although Najeh Davenport made them look silly this week, the defense (ranked 5th) has really rebounded nicely from last year (20th). On offense, Mack Strong suffered a neck injury and retired, meaning the poor ground attack will get even worse. The days of riding Alexander to victory are over - their best chance is to let Hasselbeck chuck it up 40+ times a game. While that doesn't work against Pittsburgh's #1 ranked pass defense, it will work just fine against the Rams, owners of the NFL's worst secondary. NEXT: vs. New Orleans.

 4. TAMPA BAY (3-2) : Despite losing Cadillac and Petigue last week, Tampa tried getting their running game going early and failed miserably, going three-and-out on their first three possessions. They finished with 11 carries for 10 yards. Meanwhile, the Colts cruised up and down the field, and by the time Tampa got their first possession of the second half, it was already 23-7 and pretty much over. Tampa will have to stem the tide of a tough schedule over the next few weeks, but it gets a lot easier down the stretch. NEXT: vs. Tennessee.

 5. ARIZONA (3-2) : After playing quarterback musical chairs for a few weeks, Arizona will turn to Kurt Warner full time as Leinart recovers from a broken collarbone suffered this week. Warner has played pretty well so far, so the Cards should be ok. Cornerback Rod Hood, signed as a free agent this offseason from Philadelphia, had a big game this week, picking off Frerotte twice and taking one of them to the house. NEXT: vs. Carolina.

 6. WASHINGTON (3-1) : The pass defense matched its brilliant performance from Week 2 against Philadelphia, holding Jon Kitna to just 106 yards while recording five sacks and two picks. Carlos Rogers, Sean Taylor and LaRon Landry are all first round picks, and that investment is paying off. (Shawn Springs was a first rounder as well, of the Seahawks). Meanwhile, Jason Campbell had perhaps his best game in a Redskins uniform (23/29 - 248 - 2 - 0). NEXT: @ Green Bay.

 7. NEW YORK (3-2) *UP 1* : The rejuvenated Giants continue their climb up the rankings. Brandon Jacobs returned to the lineup and combined with Ward to pound out 156 yards on 33 carries (4.7ypc) with a pair of scores. On defense, Osi Umenyiora tallied his NFL leading 7th sack in the win. NEXT: @ Atlanta.

 8. DETROIT (3-2) *DOWN 1* : Punter Nick Harris had a nice game, averaging 48.8 yards on six punts and landing 2 inside the 20. NEXT: Bye.

 9. PHILADELPHIA (1-3) : LJ Smith, Brian Westbrook and Tra Thomas were all back at practice on Monday, a good sign for the banged up Eagles. Let us hope that Winston Justice doesn't play another snap in 2007. NEXT: @ New York Jets.

 10. CAROLINA (3-2) : My post in Assani's rankings thread: "They're a bad football team that has taken advantage of three teams who are even worse - their three wins have come against teams that are a combined 1-13. Their two real opponents (Houston and Tampa) blew them out. David Carr is their quarterback. Peppers is struggling this year and outside of him, they have one good player. They're 25th in DVOA and 22nd in Sagarin." NEXT: @ Arizona.

 11. CHICAGO (2-3) *UP 2* : With Berrian out, Muhammad too old to accomplish much of anything, and the running game failing as usual, Griese turned to his tight ends for some production. And they delivered. Desmond Clark and rookie Greg Olsen combined to catch 7 balls for 119 yards and two touchdowns. It was a big win for Chicago, but hardly a season saver because they haven't fixed any of their problems. They still can't move the ball consistently, they still have no running game, and their defense is still banged up and allowed 439 yards to Green Bay. NEXT: vs. Minnesota.

 12. MINNESOTA (1-3) : His injured groin healed, Tavaris Jackson returns this week to face Chicago. But Minnesota's best bet offensively remains the same regardless of who is under center: give the ball to Adrian Peterson as much as possible. NEXT: @ Chicago.

 13. SAN FRANCISCO (2-3) *DOWN 2* : Chicago's offense is terrible because they try to throw the ball down the field and turn it over too much. San Fran's offense is terrible because they don't even try to throw the ball down the field in the first place. Every pass is into the flat, often to Gore five yards behind the line of scrimmage. They run the ball on 3rd and 6 for fear of turning it over. The results are abysmal: just 203 yards per game, worst in the NFL by 23 yards. Memo to Mike Nolan: open up the offense! NEXT: Bye.

 14. ATLANTA (1-4) : I don't get the Joey Harrington benching. The Titans have a good defense, so it's no surprise that he struggled (16/31 - 87 - 0 - 1) and it's not like Leftwich was any better in relief (2/8 - 28 - 0 -1). Joey has played surprisingly well this year; he deserves to be under center again next week. NEXT: vs. New York Giants.

 15. NEW ORLEANS (0-4) : In his first start as "the man", Reggie Bush got 21 carries but only gained 67 yards (3.2ypc). The Saints finally had some success moving the ball, but they had trouble finding the endzone. Two short field goals (to go along with two missed field goals) and a pair of Brees interceptions allowed the Panthers to hang tough and kick the game winning 52-yarder as time expired. NEXT: @ Seattle.

 16. ST. LOUIS (0-5) : Brian "Wait, is that a white running back?" Leonard had a big day, running for 102 yards on 18 carries (5.7ypc). Meanwhile, Gus "Wait, he's still in the league?" Frerotte threw for 262 yards and three scores, but added three picks and a touchdown to the wrong team as well. T-Minus five weeks until the Basement Bowl with the Saints. [b] NEXT: @ Baltimore.

tarheeljks · #2 10-09-2007, 02:28 AM

i think washington should be ahead of seattle and zona

PokerFink · #3 10-09-2007, 02:30 AM

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i think washington should be ahead of seattle and zona

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Disclaimer: My rankings are NOT a traditional power rankings. They are projective, meaning we are ranking based on where teams will finish. Rankings are done based on the playoff guidelines. For a full explanation, please see this post.

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As for Arizona, I considered that. It's close.

tarheeljks · #4 10-09-2007, 02:32 AM

i saw the disclaimer, i'm just not very high on seattle. fwiw, i also think arizona is a little better than them

Semtex · #5 10-09-2007, 02:35 AM

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i saw the disclaimer, i'm just not very high on seattle. fwiw, i also think arizona is a little better than them

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how can you possible put Washington above Seattle when they're not the best team in their division? If you read the disclaimer you didn't get it.

vixticator · #6 10-09-2007, 02:46 AM

This is good stuff. When does Washington play Dallas? I'm impressed by the Redskins defense, tremendously. They beat down and stopped the Lions from doing anything which is, believe it or not, a difficult task. The Lions have played good on offense in every game until this one including against the Eagles for most of the time except when JT O'Sullivan got snaps for Kitna against Vikes. The Redskins dominated the line of scrimmage, getting pressure without blitzing and the Lions couldn't do anything. IMO the offensive explosion is nice but not as important. This team matches up very well against everyone in the NFC.

The Packers perhaps played their best overall game and lost, to some degree. James Jones coughs it up twice and Nick Collins just doesn't cover Clark for easy touchdown along with Favre just giving Urlacher a gift followed by immediate td to Olsen. Bizarre turn of events. They ran the ball well for once and Favre was unstoppable through the first half. Offense seemed to play tighter in second half. I'm not sure what happened there.

Meanwhile the Bears didn't look very good again, kudos to Tillman for keeping the game alive. Griese did not make any huge mistake and made one excellent throw (Olsen td) but was unremarkable overall. If the defense can get healthy fast they can get back in it. Tommie Harris is clearly not close to 100% and Vasher is a big part as well. Urlacher got owned in the running game. Cedric Benson is almost totally worthless. At least Greg Olsen looks like a potential stud.

I think the Seahawks are in a bit of trouble. Deion Branch is out for a while, right? At least Burleson has played well so maybe no significant drop off. But, Alexander is almost officially washed up. Don't think this team can rely on the pass. Hasselbeck isn't quite good enough and seems to have regressed as well. The defense has to carry the team, I just don't buy it.

Tampa got destroyed by Indy, standard. I wouldn't hold it against them much. They still seem like a good team at this point IMO. Injuries are starting to become an issue. Carnell Williams and Michael Pittman are the most replaceable players in the NFL, prob, lol so no big deal. I heard some rumor about Mewelde Moore being available. Tampa should be all over this, he fits that system excellent and IMO would improve over all of their injured players. Garcia is still playing well enough. Now that Carr is starting I think they basically have a lock on the division unless Garcia implodes or gets hurt.

tarheeljks · #7 10-09-2007, 02:51 AM

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i saw the disclaimer, i'm just not very high on seattle. fwiw, i also think arizona is a little better than them

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how can you possible put Washington above Seattle when they're not the best team in their division? If you read the disclaimer you didn't get it.

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it said based on where teams will finish. i don't think seattle or washington will win their respective divisions, and i think washington will have a better record.

edit: also, zona is technically first in that division

Nonfiction · #8 10-09-2007, 02:54 AM

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This is good stuff. When does Washington play Dallas? I'm impressed by the Redskins defense, tremendously. They beat down and stopped the Lions from doing anything which is, believe it or not, a difficult task. The Lions have played good on offense in every game until this one including against the Eagles for most of the time except when JT O'Sullivan got snaps for Kitna against Vikes. The Redskins dominated the line of scrimmage, getting pressure without blitzing and the Lions couldn't do anything. IMO the offensive explosion is nice but not as important. This team matches up very well against everyone in the NFC.

The Packers perhaps played their best overall game and lost, to some degree. James Jones coughs it up twice and Nick Collins just doesn't cover Clark for easy touchdown along with Favre just giving Urlacher a gift followed by immediate td to Olsen. Bizarre turn of events. They ran the ball well for once and Favre was unstoppable through the first half. Offense seemed to play tighter in second half. I'm not sure what happened there.

Meanwhile the Bears didn't look very good again, kudos to Tillman for keeping the game alive. Griese did not make any huge mistake and made one excellent throw (Olsen td) but was unremarkable overall. If the defense can get healthy fast they can get back in it. Tommie Harris is clearly not close to 100% and Vasher is a big part as well. Urlacher got owned in the running game. Cedric Benson is almost totally worthless. At least Greg Olsen looks like a potential stud.

I think the Seahawks are in a bit of trouble. Deion Branch is out for a while, right? At least Burleson has played well so maybe no significant drop off. But, Alexander is almost officially washed up. Don't think this team can rely on the pass. Hasselbeck isn't quite good enough and seems to have regressed as well. The defense has to carry the team, I just don't buy it.

Tampa got destroyed by Indy, standard. I wouldn't hold it against them much. They still seem like a good team at this point IMO. Injuries are starting to become an issue. Carnell Williams and Michael Pittman are the most replaceable players in the NFL, prob, lol so no big deal. I heard some rumor about Mewelde Moore being available. Tampa should be all over this, he fits that system excellent and IMO would improve over all of their injured players. Garcia is still playing well enough. Now that Carr is starting I think they basically have a lock on the division unless Garcia implodes or gets hurt.

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Agree with all of this. Can't believe Dallas won today. With Dallas losing, and losing next week to NE, and Wash winning vs Greenbay (who they match up well against, amazing secondary vs all pass offense), Skins could have been in 1st [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

tarheeljks · #9 10-09-2007, 02:58 AM

i am a panthers fan so my opinions on tampa are obv biased, but--

carnell williams' injury is a big deal, but i think pettigout going down is just as big. i fully expect garcia to tank in the second half of the season

PokerFink · #10 10-09-2007, 03:03 AM

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When does Washington play Dallas?

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In Dallas week 11. In Washington week 17.

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I'm impressed by the Redskins defense, tremendously.

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I didn't see this game yet but I have it taped, might watch it tonight. Just from the box score, that's the Washington team that I expected to see a lot more of after they beat Philly.

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I think the Seahawks are in a bit of trouble

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I disagree. Hasselbeck struggled this week but Pittsburgh is very good defensively - he will be fine. Defense is very good. Overall they're not great, but I don't think anyone expected them to be great. They're still good enough to win the division.

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Alexander is almost officially washed up

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Almost? Alexander is washed up. Period. Every week I go to write some disparaging comment about Alexander, then realize I'm a broken record and try to come up with something else.