PokerFink's 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 2)

[Assani Fisher]

First thought is that you have Carolina too low. Houston is a legit team this year, and in a few weeks you won't look back at that as a bad loss imo.

[vixticator]

Rest of my commentary:


9. CAR- Yes, running game is pathetic. It has to get better. No idea what solution is though. Nick Goings, lol? This offense is built on pass, to Steve Smith. I think they can score enough to be fine here. Defense is their strong suit. They did an excellent job against Rams, not so much versus Houston. Need to bring it every week. I haven't heard Peppers name mentioned yet. This is a problem.

10. ARI- Is it possible they have a running game? With me not sold on Seahawks and them having beat said team and 49ers being kind of shaky overall, Arizona played awful against them, maybe, just maybe this team can make an impact. But, this is Arizona. They do have a first year coach. I doubt it.

11. DET- The Philly game will show a whole lot that I want to know. Is this defense any good? Let me rephrase that. Is it not terrible? Maybe. Oakland and Minnesota cannot play much offense so I can't tell yet. This offense without Kitna at helm is an absolute abomination. He is the team for better or worse. Detroit needs to run even more four reciever combonations. So far the line is holding well against two quality fronts. Kitna is making quick decisions, sometimes bad ones. Offense is a well oiled machine. Neither Oakland or Minnesota had any response to the 4 WR set. Kevin Jones comes back soon, he won't relly help running game but is good reciever.

12. MIN- LOL. How can this team not be interested in Leftwich? Tavaris Jackson is clueless. Simple as that. He doesn't even make plays with legs, just worthless overall. Make him win the game and you have no shot. Adrian Peterson is for real and with Chester Taylor healthy plus a bit of Mewelde Moore with that line, they should be able to run. The problem on defense is same as last season. Put out as many recievers as possible and throw. They have no answer to this. Yeah, the Williams' are sick. Decent pass rush. Sharper is making plays too. But, they don't have enough depth to stop a spread out offense. Lucky for them most teams don't have the personnel to run it either.

13. STL- Passing game will slow down eventually b/c of Pace. It's nice to see Bruce have a big game. Maybe he has something left. Obv Jackson needs to get out of slump ASAP. On defense they seemed to play well for once against 49ers. I doubt this is a sign that they have anything resembling quality defensive talent. Anyone watch these games closely, how does Carriker look? Tye Hill out long time, another big loss. I expect decent offenses to put up 30+ points on this team regularly. If Bulger takes a hit and misses time you are looking at worst team in NFL.

14. TB- Team looked sick against Saints. Defense flying around, I thought this was a throwback. Jermaine Phillips and Barett Rudd in particular just leaped off television. They absolutely owned the Saints. Imagine if Gaines Adams starts playing great. Very impressed by this defense. I cannot stress that enough. Jeff Garcia played like he did last year. Offensive line held back Will Smith, Charles Grant all day. Awesome pass protection. Bucs have no run game yet but they have some maulers up front, I think Cadillac could get the engine tuned and if he does watch out. Serious division contenders here.

15. NYG- Holy [censored] this team blows. Coughlin good as gone. Glad to see Eli playing. But, really. Eli needs to play like Peyton every week to just keep them in the game. Defense is hopeless. If/when this team is like 1-6 the media will go crazy. Team obv hates Coughlin, I can see them giving up.

16. ATL- Nothing to say really. I have not seen this team play. Vick was a player that, if not a leader, he inspired the others to play better just to get on sideline and watch IMO. Harrington is the opposite. He's a servicable backup QB but keeps ending up playing most of season. I mean, if he plays more than four games in a row your team is [censored].

[PokerFink]

I just did a fun little exercise: a quick prediction of every NFC game for the rest of the season. In general, I took the home team unless the road team is clearly superior. And I gave the AFC teams some bias over the NFC teams, especially the elite AFC teams. I don't think I picked the NFC team in any game against New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego or Indy.

Also, remember that there is no room for variance in this. I don't actually think New York will go 0-16, but at this point they're not favored in any game the rest of the way.

I put it into an excel spreadsheet, meaning I can update it as the season goes along and it will automatically recalculate a record prediction.

Anyway, here's what came out.

Washington: 13-3
Green Bay: 12-4
San Fran: 11-5
Carolina: 9-7

Dallas: 11-5
Chicago: 11-5

Seattle: 10-6
Philly: 10-6
New Orleans: 8-8
Tampa Bay: 7-9
Minnesota: 5-11
Detroit: 5-11
St. Louis: 3-13
Atlanta: 1-15
New York: 0-16

[tdarko]

Wash 13-3 lol wtf?

One, I think Philly is a poor team and this:

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[broken record]The Eagles are better than their record.[/broken record] For the second week in a row, McNabb showed some good mobility, even scrambling twice for 15 yards and a first down. But the receivers had trouble getting open, and when they got open McNabb overthrew them, and when McNabb threw them a good pass they dropped it, and when they actually did catch it, they only got as far as the red zone before screwing up and settling for a field goal. Two very winnable games approach, and with McNabb struggling, Philly must ride Brian Westbrook back into the race. NEXT: vs. Detroit.

[/ QUOTE ]

...is just excuses. Good teams don't overthrow receivers constantly or have trouble getting open or drop passes all night or screw up red zone opportunities. This transfers to Washington, they beat a very beatable Philly team. That game was ugly, ugly, ugly. That last drive of the game for example, McNabb has a wide open receiver at the 1 to set up the possible tie and he overthrows him terribly. Next play the receiver drops the ball after taking a tough hit. Good teams make these plays. I wasn't watching the second best team in the NFC play the eighth best team last night.

I looked at Wash's schedule and I guess you assumed NE and Chi were losses and they would split w/ Dallas right? I would be willing to put on this b/c there is no way they are running the table on a slew of games they will be slightly favored or worse in.

[PokerFink]

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Wash 13-3 lol wtf?

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"Also, remember that there is no room for variance in this."

Washington has an easy schedule ---> they will be favored a lot ---> they have a high projection.


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I looked at Wash's schedule and I guess you assumed NE and Chi were losses and they would split w/ Dallas right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have them losing in Green Bay, in New England and in Dallas. I gave them a win against Chicago since they are at home.

Obviously they will lose some games they should win ---> they will not go 13-3. Again, there is no variance in those projections, so you have to squish them together a bit (ie the bad teams will not go 0-16 and Washington will not go 13-3).

That's what I meant by "no variance" in the system.

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One, I think Philly is a poor team and this...is just excuses.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not excuses as all. It's reasons why they lost / me ripping on my own team / me trying to be atleast slightly funny. There's no excuse for [censored] up, I was just saying how they [censored] up.

And how was the game "ugly, ugly, ugly"? There was about 700 yards of offense which is pretty standard. Both teams have above average defenses. Other than McNabb being scattershot, it was a pretty well played game.

If you want ugly, ugly, ugly, check out Detroit and Minnesota turning the ball over 10 times or Cincinatti and Cleveland covering no one.

[dkgojackets]

I still can't grasp that someone from the NFC south is really going to make to playoffs...that must have been the toughest to rank #4 since they all suck.

[PokerFink]

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I still can't grasp that someone from the NFC south is really going to make to playoffs...that must have been the toughest to rank #4 since they all suck.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, pretty much.

I hemmed and hawed for a while between Carolina and New Orleans for #4. They're both very mediocre, and which ever one didn't get #4 spot was getting banished all the way to #9. I also considered putting them both at #9 and just leaving #4 blank.

What a crap division.

[hoyasnaxa]

Your rankings are really really bad. Apparently Dallas isnt better than Washington. Seriously these are not good at all. STOP OVERRATING PHILLY. Washington beat a bad team last nite, that doesnt make Washinton good. Dallas actually is a good team. Wow these are terrible.

[challenger84]

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Your rankings are really really bad.

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What's new?

[SL__72]

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Your rankings are really really bad.

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What's new?

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Nothing. People still don't get how his rankings work...