Peeling the flop for OESD

[Landonfan]

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Voyeur-Mature?


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lol, easy decision

[tyler_cracker]

still kinda long, ne c'est pas?

[Bigka79]

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if he raises he either has the straight with something like J9 or 98, and there's a chance he donkchecked the turn with a flush.

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with a 2.1 aggression factor. no way this would take a sick read for him to be able to do this (knowing we are on a draw). my guess is he has a club with a weak pair.

however i aggree with ur b/c line i would do this all the time because this river is scarry and someone with a 2.1 af will bluff this possibly. i think b/c is the line thats my final answer.

[milesdyson]

people will check behind here with a flush because they will think that card is too scary for you to call. believe me. it is a factor to include if you get raised on the river.

[milesdyson]

also disagreeing with that part of my post and then saying you'd bet/call "because this river is scarry and someone with a 2.1 af will bluff this possibly" is weird. he might make a raise he thinks is a value raise, but hardly anyone is ever going to pure bluff here. it is much more likely to see a flush than a bluff when you get raised. 2.1 is very normal for a postflop af.

[Bigka79]

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people will check behind here with a flush because they will think that card is too scary for you to call. believe me. it is a factor to include if you get raised on the river.

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im not saying to completely draw this factor out. i just think that someone with a 2.1 AF isnt going to make this play on a regular basis. it is something we should consider but i that kind of hand doesnt worry me that often

this is the kind of play that i am deffinately making a note of if someone makes this against me because i would love to have this information in the future. knowing they play like this i think the river would be a c/c

[milesdyson]

no. check calling is terrible against anyone. no one has a flush here often enough to check call and miss a bet vs. a hand that will call but won't bet. i'm just saying when you get raised, you are no longer a favorite. you're not freerolling against 9x and JT or AT. he either has 9x (vast majority of the time) or a flush (small minority of the time). against this range you can not reraise for value. i'm not saying you should ever check call this - you shouldn't.

[Bigka79]

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no. check calling is terrible against anyone. no one has a flush here often enough to check call and miss a bet vs. a hand that will call but won't bet. i'm just saying when you get raised, you are no longer a favorite. you're not freerolling against 9x and JT or AT. he either has 9x (vast majority of the time) or a flush (small minority of the time). against this range you can not reraise for value. i'm not saying you should ever check call this - you shouldn't.

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i think ur completely right here. i didnt really look at it this way. thanks for helping me clarify this line i think my play was way to based upon having a read, which may be causing me to lose value over the LR. im gonna bust through some hand histories tonight and see how i have played it in the past

[Smurph64]

so is it bet/fold or bet/call on the river here?

[milesdyson]

bet/call because you're mostly splitting and occasionally winning against a poorly played JT.