PokerFink's 2007 NFC Rankings (Preseason)

[Anacardo]

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LOL @ Dallas #9, especially when you cite replacing Parcells vanilla 3-4 with Wade Phillips attacking 3-4 defense as a negative. I am also leery of Romo repeating his success, but with the weapons on that offense, he will at worst be a average to above average NFL QB.

Eagles fan I presume?

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Yes, he is, v. much so.

I'm a Dallas fan and I have absolutely no idea what's going to happen this year. Too many conflicting factors.

Dallas was very lucky and very healthy last year. On the other hand I really do think Romo's got a nice future in pro ball. I'm much more worried about Dallas's coordinators than its head coach. Our schedule is [censored] ridiculous, but preseason estimates of schedule strength often prove way off. I can't wait to see what happens.

[duracell]

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[ QUOTE ]
LOL @ Dallas #9, especially when you cite replacing Parcells vanilla 3-4 with Wade Phillips attacking 3-4 defense as a negative. I am also leery of Romo repeating his success, but with the weapons on that offense, he will at worst be a average to above average NFL QB.

Eagles fan I presume?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, he is, v. much so.

I'm a Dallas fan and I have absolutely no idea what's going to happen this year. Too many conflicting factors.

Dallas was very lucky and very healthy last year. On the other hand I really do think Romo's got a nice future in pro ball. I'm much more worried about Dallas's coordinators than its head coach. Our schedule is [censored] ridiculous, but preseason estimates of schedule strength often prove way off. I can't wait to see what happens.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dallas definitely belongs at either 4 or 5 in the NFC. There are three legitimately good teams (Chicago, Philly, New Orleans), a couple of decent teams with some question marks (Dallas, a guess you could lump in a number of teams from the West) and then a slew of not very good teams.

I'm really not high on Romo at all, but as long as he doesn't turn the ball over too much, Dallas should be right in the middle of the playoff picture. Ugh I really hate to admit that. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[PokerFink]

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I think Atlanta is too low--I expect them to be significantly better than Tampa Bay and Detroit, and slightly better than Minnesota.

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Really? Um... why?

[PokerFink]

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LOL @ Dallas #9, especially when you cite replacing Parcells vanilla 3-4 with Wade Phillips attacking 3-4 defense as a negative. I am also leery of Romo repeating his success, but with the weapons on that offense, he will at worst be a average to above average NFL QB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dallas was very lucky with regard to injuries last year. They started the same offensive line in all 16 games which is quite uncommon and won't happen again. They had few injuries elsewhere.

Wade Phillips is an excellent defensive coach. The problem is that he has proven to be a poor head coach. For all his problems, Parcells has a proven track record which Phillips does not.

As for Romo and the offense, this is from the Prospectus (slightly edited to make it shorter):

"There was so much attention paid to the way Rex Grossman fell apart in the 2nd half of last year that nobody noticed Romo starting to fall apart as well. In his first six games, Romo averaged 8.5 yards per pass with a DVOA of 46%, 12 touchdowns and 5 interceptions... Through the rest of the regular season, Romo averaged 6.7 yards per pass with a DVOA of -11.5%, six touchdowns and eight interceptions.

Based on our similarity scores, the most similar quarterbacks to Romo are Jim Kelly, Scott Mitchell, Trent Green, Erik Kramer and Shane Matthews... but it's important to note that Kelly and Romo are similar primiarly because neither one took an NFL snap until the age of 26. Unlike Romo, however, Kelly wasn't carrying a clipboard; he was competing in the USFL. The remaining names on the list [besides Green] are certain to give nightmares to Jerry Jones...

Dallas also has to deal with the law of third-down rebounds: last year they ranked 13th in DVOA on first down, 11th on second down and second on third down." This is a very strong indicator that their offense will decline.

There is also a few paragraphs in the Chicago section explaining that quarterbacks who have hot starts and then fade (Romo, Grossman) rarely rebound much. They tend to be mediocre permanently.

[PokerFink]

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1-15. everybody but green bay

16. green bay, there isn't a single game on the first half of their schedule where they should be the favorite and they are headed for a 2-14 season.

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Aren't you a Packers fan? Are you leveling or just trying to lower your expectations or what?

Green Bay is gonna be good! Get excited! BRETT FAVRE! BRETT FAVRE! BRETT FAVRE! BRETT FAVRE! BRETT FAVRE! BRETT FAVRE! BRETT FAVRE!

[TheNoodleMan]

[pepper123]

[PokerFink]

vnh A+

[SL__72]

Nice post. Maybe I missed an explanation somewhere, but why is 7-9 ATL below 3-13 Detroit? If you are predicting 7-9, then aren't they a good bounce or two away from being a wild card team?

I'm also surprised that you have Tampa doing so bad. Garcia isn't great, but TB's offense should suit him well. FO predicted 9 wins... and while I think thats a little optimistic, they just don't feel like a 3 win team to me.

[capone0]

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Nice post. Maybe I missed an explanation somewhere, but why is 7-9 ATL below 3-13 Detroit? If you are predicting 7-9, then aren't they a good bounce or two away from being a wild card team?

I'm also surprised that you have Tampa doing so bad. Garcia isn't great, but TB's offense should suit him well. FO predicted 9 wins... and while I think thats a little optimistic, they just don't feel like a 3 win team to me.

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I'm pretty sure those are last years win totals, not this years.