PokerFink's 2007 NFC Rankings (Preseason)

PokerFink · #1 08-29-2007, 09:50 PM

It’s football season again, hallelujah! This year I’m all ready with DirecTV, NFL Sunday Ticket and DVR, so I’ll be able to watch a lot more games. Let’s start with the disclaimer.

Disclaimer: My rankings are NOT a traditional power rankings. They are projective in terms of playoff seeds, meaning strength of schedule matters. In 2004, the Chargers were 12-4, but fell to 9-7 in 2005. Last year they rebounded to 14-2. Their roster and coaching staff was mostly the same each year, so what was the difference? In 2005, the Chargers had the hardest schedule in the NFL (according to FO), and their record reflected that.

Schedules matter, and an easy schedule can easily mean a two or three win difference from the previous year. Likewise, a difficult schedule can mean a long season. Injuries matter as well, but only injuries that have already occurred, meaning we won’t penalize Philadelphia right now for McNabb’s season ending injury, we will wait until he actually breaks or tears something.

Let’s also not react to one or two games. Don’t expect teams to jump wildly around the rankings from week to week.

Finally, since we are projecting playoff seeds, we have to follow the NFL’s formula - the four division winners get the first four spots.

Ok, now that I have my disclaimer that no one reads out of the way, onto the rankings.

Preseason Rankings

1. CHICAGO (13-3): The reigning NFC champions remain on their perch to begin 2007. Mostly because the last time I checked, the Bears still play in the NFC North, and as usual the NFC North sucks. It’s arguable whether the Bears are actually any better than the next two teams; it’s their 30th ranked schedule that gives them the top spot. Devin Hester will strut his stuff on offense this year, and I can’t wait to watch Sexy Rexy unleash the dragon to him deep.

The bad news for Chicago is that a number of statistical predictors say they are in for a serious decline in 2007. The special teams performed at an unsustainable rate in 2006 and will almost certainly decline. The truth behind Good Rex/Bad Rex is that Grossman completely fell off after about four weeks last year (aka opposing defenses figured him out), and a comparison to other quarterbacks who had a similar falls predicts a lot more Bad Rex in 2007. While Bears fans remain hopeful that Grossman will mature into a good quarterback, history says he won’t. Finally, it will be difficult for the defense to maintain its dominance from the past two years; most defenses that perform this well regress back to the mean. But with Tommie Harris coming back, their defense should stay near the top, statistics be damned.

2. PHILADELPHIA (10-6): Some pundits predicted the window closing for the Eagles after they lost their third consecutive NFCCG. Four years later, the Eagles continue to be Super Bowl contenders year in and year out. But this year, it comes with a caveat: the restructured knee of Donovan McNabb. On paper, the Eagles are a seasoned, deep, hungry, talented team with weapons everywhere on offense. In reality, their season hinges on two injury prone stars (McNabb and Westbrook), three new defensive starters with little experience (Gocong, Gathier and Bunkley) and a trio of aging defensive vets (Dawkins, Kearse, Spikes). There’s a lot of risk there, but if it works out the Eagles will be a force.

3. NEW ORLEANS (10-6): The Saints came out of nowhere in 2006 to enjoy a remarkable season, the second seed and a trip to the NFCCG. In hindsight, we all feel like idiots for not realizing how much of an upgrade the Saints had made with Drew Brees, Sean Payton and an actual home stadium to play in. The Saints have high hopes for 2007, and for good reason. They return pretty much the same team from last year and the NFC South is no better, and perhaps even worse. New Orleans joins Chicago and Philly as the first tier of the NFC.

4. SEATTLE (9-7): Seattle had the “honor” of winning the NFL’s worst division in 2006, their third consecutive NFC West crown, and even won a playoff game. But while that short 2006 summary is pretty good, it doesn’t tell the whole story; those accomplishments came via an easy schedule, a pathetically bad division and a botched hold.

After being heavy favorites to win the West in 2005 and 2006, Seattle’s margin for error has shrunk; the competition has finally caught up. But the healthy return of Hasselbeck, Alexander and Walter Jones means Seattle still remains slim favorites on the Pacific coast.

5. GREEN BAY (8-8): Green Bay’s offensive line and defense improved dramatically in 2006 as the season wore on, and those improvements figure to continue in 2007. Brett Favre returns for one last season to not only break many of Dan Marino’s passing records, but to lead a solid football team back into the playoffs. Add in the NFL’s second easiest schedule, and even toppling Chicago is a possibility. So everyone clear your throat for your best John Madden imitation (4:50): BRETT FAVRE! BRETT FAVRE! BRETT FAVRE! BRETT FAVRE! BRETT FAVRE!

6. SAN FRANSISCO (7-9): Ladies and Gentleman, the 2007 San Francisco 49ers Wildcard Bandwagon is ready to start its engines and get rolling – free admission for anyone who wants to board before Week 4. Seriously though, with the disastrous Dennis Erickson era finally behind them, San Francisco is poised to contend for a while. Alex Smith may never develop into an elite quarterback (the NFL is not the NBA, you don’t draft kiddy quarterbacks to develop, you draft proven studs like Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart), but Frank Gore is a stud running behind a good offensive line and they added tons of talent to the defense this off-season. Add in the NFL’s easiest schedule, and you have the recipe for a playoff team.

7. CAROLINA (8-8): Over the past few years, we have seen teams rise (Chicago, New Orleans, San Fran), teams fall (Atlanta, Tampa Bay), teams rise and then fall (Dallas), and teams fall and then rise back up (Green Bay). Other teams are consistently good (Philly) while others are consistently bad (Detroit, Arizona). But Carolina is the one team that always seems to be just about average, and they’re no different in 2007. They should be in the wildcard mix all season long, and with a little luck they could find their way into the playoffs.

8. WASHINGTON (5-11): With a full year to digest the Al Saunders Offensive Experience and a more experienced Jason Campbell under center, Washington is poised to make some more noise in 2007. An improved secondary and some decline in the NFC East (see below) will help as well. I like Campbell in the long-run, and while Washington is already wildcard threat, they aren’t quite there yet.

9. DALLAS (9-7): 2006 Playoff Team That Won't Return Take One: Dallas rode a Tony Romo hot streak to a wildcard berth last year, but much like Rex Grossman, Romo fell off after his first few games. There is little historical precedent that says Romo will develop into a franchise quarterback, and several other statistical indicators suggest Dallas is far more likely to resemble their mediocre squad from down the stretch last year than the team that “had the look” in the middle of the season. Subtract Parcells, add Wade Phillips and the NFC’s second hardest schedule (5th in the NFL) and a return trip to the playoffs is unlikely.

10. NEW YORK (8-8): 2006 Playoff Team That Won’t Return Take Two: New York’s defense was ravaged by injuries last year, but they still managed to hold on and slip into the playoffs. While they figure to be healthier in 2007, the G-Men must face the NFC’s hardest schedule (3rd in the NFL) without their best offensive player and their best defensive player from last season. Furthermore, the offensive line and secondary are a mess, and they hate their coach. Brandon Jacobs will do well, but Reuben Droghns won’t and neither will the Giants.

Note: Schedule ranks come from Pro Football Prospectus 2007. Dallas and New York are the only two NFC teams with schedules in the top five, largely because they have to play Philadelphia twice, and the Eagles are the Prospectus’ top rated NFC team by a wide margin.

11. ST. LOUIS (8-8): The most difficult team for me to predict. Their offense is eroding from age and injuries (Bruce, Holt, Pace) but S. Jackson is more than capable of strapping the old farts to his back and carrying them along. Defensively, the Rams drafted Adam Carriker and signed Chris Draft to infuse some much needed talent, but it will take time for the defense to gel. If the offensive line (notably Pace and guard Adam Timmerman) stay healthy, the Rams have a shot. If not, it will be a long season.

12. ARIZONA (5-11): For years, Arizona was a joke because they were perennial losers. Now they’re a joke because they’re the perennial sleepers who don’t pan out. At least it’s an improvement. Matt Leinart takes over full time in 2007 under a new coaching regime and behind a revamped offensive line, and while that bodes well for the future, Arizona needs another year. Next year they will be the chic sleeper pick. Again.

13. MINNESOTA (6-10): The Tavaris Jackson Experiment takes over full time in 2007. While Jackson wasn’t awful last year, he didn’t inspire much confidence either. Brad Childress has a nice track record for developing quarterbacks (McNabb), but he has his hands full with Jackson.

14.TAMPA BAY (4-12): Jeff Garcia was able to parlay his successful run in Philadelphia into a starting gig and a (potentially) $14 million contract with Tampa Bay. While Garcia will be unable to repeat his Philadelphia success with his new surrounding cast, he is certainly an upgrade over the woeful Bruce Gradkowski, and could improve the Tampa offense from dreadful to mediocre. The defense, so dominant for so long, finally fell apart due to old age last year. Signing Cato June and drafting Gaines Adams will help, but Quarles, Barber, Brooks and Rice are just too old at this point to carry the team as they have in the past.

15. DETROIT (3-13): Kitna will have a fun time throwing the ball to Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson, but that's about the only fun going on in Motown. As usual.

16. ATLANTA (7-9): In the short-term, losing Michael Vick is a disaster. I've never been a big Vick supporter, but at least he’s a starting caliber quarterback - Joey Harrington is not. Throw in the season-long distractions and Atlanta figures to be an absolute mess this year.

In the long-run, losing Vick allows Atlanta to draft another franchise QBrohm and completely rebuild an aging roster right now instead of waiting to see if Vick comes around. If their new QBrohm turns out better than Vick, Atlanta could potentially compete in 3 years or so and all of this will be a blessing. But even #1 overall quarterbacks are hit or miss, and if Atlanta screws up their rebuilding process it could take a long time to get back to where they were, even if that was only mediocrity.

DemonDeac · #2 08-29-2007, 10:17 PM

YES!!!!

Now I'm ready for some football.

MacGuyV · #3 08-29-2007, 10:21 PM

I love how the current front page of FO describes the NFC [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

MyTurn2Raise · #4 08-29-2007, 10:21 PM

i love you Fink, but I cannot support anything that puts the Bears #1 when there is still a choice

Case Closed · #5 08-29-2007, 10:22 PM

fink,

Whatever dude Rex is throwing 35 td passes this year. SHIP IT!

PokerFink · #6 08-29-2007, 10:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I love how the current front page of FO describes the NFC [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Very cute [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. We all know I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] FO, but I've been writing these on and off for two weeks. It's just a coincidence.

Jack Bando · #7 08-29-2007, 10:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
fink,

Whatever dude Rex is throwing 35 td passes a game this year. SHIP IT!

[/ QUOTE ]

duracell · #8 08-29-2007, 10:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
fink,

Whatever dude Rex is throwing 35 td passes a game this year. SHIP IT!

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll refrain from the even more obvious FYP. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

En Passant · #9 08-29-2007, 10:49 PM

E A G L E S

EAGLES!

Case Closed · #10 08-29-2007, 11:18 PM

Ok, enough mucking up fink's thread with my nonsense. Time for some discsussion.

Fink,

How do you think Grossman will perform this year? Am I off base thinking that he has the physical talents to be a starting 2nd tier QB in this league? I have been unable to watch the pre-season games so I can't see for myself but all I hear is that he is improving his mechanics and is really a QB going into his 2nd full season.