PokerFink's 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4) - Page 3

jogsxyz · #21 10-04-2007, 02:55 PM

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Where did you get he turned the ball over 6 times this year. He threw 1 pick this year for an INT against Pittsburgh and has had 0 fumbles all year.

Honestly I think he's regressed this year. It doesn't help that the o-line especially Larry Allen has been terrible so far. I don't think he's significantly better or worse than Dilfer right now I just think Seattle has played well and Dilfer hasn't taken a snap in years. Doesn't help that VD was out as well.

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The receivers are also terrible. Did you see the Jackson drop. It went through his hands. Neither hand touched the ball. Jackson lead the league in drops last year with 11. And he's the best SF receiver. Davis will never be a good as Eric Johnson.
With that line and those receivers Montana would look terrible.

Bork · #22 10-04-2007, 03:03 PM

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Where did you get he turned the ball over 6 times this year. He threw 1 pick this year for an INT against Pittsburgh and has had 0 fumbles all year.

[/ QUOTE ] I guess I read the numbers off wrong, but he did lose a fumble in each of the first 2 games + had a pick in a third. As others have said he has no help so it's hard to tell if he sucks, but he certainly isn't performing at all.

http://www.nfl.com/players/alexsmith...e?id=SMI031126

Assani Fisher · #23 10-04-2007, 05:59 PM

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I do think Chicago would definitely be favored over Min, SF, CAr, and Philly on a neutral field though. But they're 1-3, so I can't blame you for having them so low.

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If they're favored it's because the betting public hasn't come to grips with the fact that Chicago is just plain bad. Their offense is miserable and their defense is really banged up.

They might be better than SF, but SF is a game up at 2-2.

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Great call on GB before the season started btw...and horrible call on the Cowboys, but you hit some and you miss some.

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Ain't that the truth.

What's really interesting is that the DVOA projection system completely nailed the NFC South. It predicted a huge decline for New Orleans and a huge rebound for Tampa. And everyone looked at that and went, "wtf?", but that's what happened. The moral of the story as usual: the computers are right.

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by favored, I mean that I personally think they'd be >50% to win.

kyro · #24 10-04-2007, 07:19 PM

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Kyro,

Do your rankings include margin of victory?

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Pretty much. I expect numbers at both extremes to regress closer to 1.0, obviously. But with the exception of a team or two (Ravens in AFC, Eagles in NFC), I like how they came out.

PokerFink · #25 10-04-2007, 07:24 PM

Kyro,

I really can't figure out how your rankings work if they include MOV. Having anyone above Dallas is just plain silly.

Sluss · #26 10-05-2007, 07:01 AM

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Neither is Delhomme.

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He had two and 3/4 pretty good games before going down.

8 TDs 1 INT 64%

Granted all he basically does is throw to Steve Smith, but he has played well this year.

kyro · #27 10-05-2007, 11:47 AM

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Kyro,

I really can't figure out how your rankings work if they include MOV. Having anyone above Dallas is just plain silly.

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MOV + SOS ldo

Plus a 20-10 victory is considered more impressive than a 45-35 victory, which may or may not be the case. I don't think my rankings are good or scientific, but I enjoyed calculating them and figured I'd post them in the respective threads.

bottomset · #28 10-05-2007, 03:57 PM

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To be fair, even the DVOA guys were like "wtf?"

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talk about lack of faith

PokerFink · #29 10-06-2007, 06:24 PM

Here are the rest of the comments.

 3. SEATTLE (3-1) : Kudos to CB Marcus Trufant, who had a great game this week with a pair of picks and four credited pass defenses. The 2003 first round pick has developed into a strong player, which I didn't think would happen after watching him get toasted repeatedly in his first two years. Trufant is the player Terrell Owens burned for a touchdown in the sharpie incident, but he's come a long way since then. NEXT: @ Pittsburgh.

 4. TAMPA BAY (3-1) : Tampa can survive the loss of Cadillac, who's overrated anyway. But as Osi Umenyiora proved this week, losing your left tackle can be disastrous. Luke Petigue is not the same caliber as Tra Thomas, but the new starting left tackle is Who-Dat Anthony Davis. NEXT: @ Indianapolis.

 7. DETROIT (3-1) : Quick, who leads the league in passing yards? The unstoppable Tom Brady? The red hot Tony Romo? The revived Brett Favre? The incomparable Peyton Manning? Nope. Jon Kitna, ftw. (Kitna ranks 7th in DPAR behind those four, Palmer and Hasselbeck). NEXT: @ Washington.

 8. NEW YORK (2-2) : It's been a tale of two seasons so far for New York. Blowout losses to the Cowboys and Packers followed by a first half pounding by the Skins. Since then, the Giants have played six fantastic quarters, destroying the Skins in the second half and sacking the Eagles like York at the hands of William Wallace. NEXT: vs. New York Jets.

 11. SAN FRANCISCO (2-2) : I imagine Trent Dilfer reacted somewhat like Willie Beamen in Any Given Sunday: "What? I'm going in? Are you serious?" Dilfer was abysmal, completing just 12 of 33 passes (36%) for 128 yards (3.9ypa) while taking five sacks and tossing two picks. No matter how you slice it - rushing, passing, receiving, Smith, Dilfer - the Niners offense is terrible. And now they're without Smith and TE Vernon Davis, and to top it off, the Ravens are coming to town. NEXT: vs. Baltimore.

 12. MINNESOTA (1-3) : According to the media, the key to NFL success is on the ground. You must run the ball and stop the run to be successful. Why? Because most of the media played the game in the 70's, when the NFL was a run-first league. Today, passing the football and stopping the pass are the keys to success. The Vikings prove this. Their impenetrable, record-setting run defense is back - last year the Vikings set a record with 2.76 adjusted line yards against (league average is about 4.2). They lead the league again this year with 2.74 ALY against. On offense, they have a strong rushing attack (ranked 11th) with stud rookie Adrian Peterson. So why is Minnesota 1-3? They can't pass the ball (26th) and they can't stop the pass (20th). NEXT: Bye.

 13. CHICAGO (1-3) : Mike Brown, safety, out for season. Kevin Payne, safety, out for season. Nathan Vasher, cornerback, doubtful. Charles Tillman, cornerback, questionable. Lance Briggs, linebacker, questionable. It's not hard to figure out why the Chicago pass defense, ranked 2nd in the NFL last year, ranks 18th this year. NEXT: @ Green Bay.

 14. ATLANTA (1-3) : For years, supporters of Michael Vick asked whether the problem with the Atlanta passing attack was the receivers and not Vick. Well so far, Joey Harrington is 8th in the NFL with 22.2 DPAR. How many times did Vick accumulate that much value passing? That would be once, in 2002. In fact, in six years, Vick only had a positive value twice, meaning in four out of six years he was below replacement value. Examples of replacement value: Brooks Bollinger, Mike McMahon, Anthony Wright, Rick Mirer, Tim Couch. NEXT: @ Tennessee.

 15. NEW ORLEANS (0-3) : The Saints have had two weeks to correct their problems and realize that the three teams they lost to - Indy, Tampa and Tennessee - are all pretty darn good. NEXT: vs. Carolina.

 16. ST. LOUIS (0-4) : Wait, wait, wait. Gus Frerotte is still in the league? NEXT: vs. Arizona.