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#21
10-09-2007, 01:52 AM
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Re: Playing against a LAG with weak two pair on a paired board
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] gurravassa, "I think a player like this generally is more inclined to bet Ax hands on a board like this than to call down if raised." this is very much NOT my experience. But let's assume it's true. Say he has A8o and the board on the turn is still TT46r. If you c/r flop and he always folds to your turn bet, you win a 4 BB pot. If you c/c down and for some reason he always bet the river for you UI, you win 7 BB about 80% of the time (he has 9 outs) and lose 7 BB 20% of the time. Overall this works out to you winning a 4.2 BB pot. So it should be easy to figure out that if he happens to check either the turn or river with A-hi (which most ppl will do), then c/c'ing down is no good. Add in the fact that he will often call down with A-hi and its not very close. BTW- you WANT him to fold the turn getting 6:1 cuz his equity is about 20%. [/ QUOTE ] How can he have 9 outs? If we don't raise the flop he has worse odds woth 6-outers. You'll lose sometimes when you c/r flop as well and then you'll lose more. You can't count the bets already in the pot when you compare EV in a certain spot in a hand. We don't loose 7BB when we're drawn out on river. Maybe Lags call more than they bet in your game, but in my game I'm pretty sure it's the other way around... [/ QUOTE ] He has 8. 6's are outs too. [/ QUOTE ] ?? i still count 9. Also gurravasa i dunno what else to say. maybe you can pm ppl here who you respect and ask them their thoughts? i dont wanna go on like a broken record here. 
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#22
10-09-2007, 02:08 AM
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Re: Playing against a LAG with weak two pair on a paired board
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Also gurravasa i dunno what else to say. maybe you can pm ppl here who you respect and ask them their thoughts? i dont wanna go on like a broken record here. [/ QUOTE ] Again I don't understand you... what does broken record mean?
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#23
10-09-2007, 02:15 AM
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Re: Playing against a LAG with weak two pair on a paired board
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Also gurravasa i dunno what else to say. maybe you can pm ppl here who you respect and ask them their thoughts? i dont wanna go on like a broken record here. [/ QUOTE ] Again I don't understand you... what does broken record mean? [/ QUOTE ] lol, it means i feel like i keep saying the same thing over and over. im pretty sure i'm correct that c/c,c/c,c/c is not the best line in a vacuum, but I obviously am unable to convince you so hopefully someone else will.
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#25
10-09-2007, 02:34 AM
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Re: Playing against a LAG with weak two pair on a paired board
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Also gurravasa i dunno what else to say. maybe you can pm ppl here who you respect and ask them their thoughts? i dont wanna go on like a broken record here. [/ QUOTE ] Again I don't understand you... what does broken record mean? [/ QUOTE ] lol, it means i feel like i keep saying the same thing over and over. im pretty sure i'm correct that c/c,c/c,c/c is not the best line in a vacuum, but I obviously am unable to convince you so hopefully someone else will. [/ QUOTE ] I think you haven't really made a good effort to convince me yet. You said that raising flop against A8o would be better than calling down given that he always fold on turn if we raise flop and always bet turn and river if we don't. This is not true: If we raise flop and he folds turn we win 4 BB. If we call down and he bets A8o on every street we win 4,22 BB. Then I have accounted for the 16% when we are drawn out on turn or river. In the calculation above I haven't accounted for the times villain catch an ace on the turn after we c/r flop, wich he probably wouldn't fold. Please try and convince me but the example vs A8o checkraising flop has lower EV than calling down given the circumstances you stated.
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#28
10-09-2007, 02:38 AM
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Re: Playing against a LAG with weak two pair on a paired board
He wouldnt, and maybe not on turn and this is the obvious and most basic reason why vma is right. I would barely even classify this guy as aggressive.
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#29
10-09-2007, 02:39 AM
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Re: Playing against a LAG with weak two pair on a paired board
[ QUOTE ]
He wouldnt, and maybe not on turn and this is the obvious and most basic reason why vma is right. I would barely even classify this guy as aggressive. [/ QUOTE ] we don't know he has A8 it was just an assumption... Maybe VMA is right, but noone has been able to present any proof of that. Show me the math and I'll be convinced.
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#30
10-09-2007, 02:43 AM
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Re: Playing against a LAG with weak two pair on a paired board
Its not so much a disagreement about math as it is about playing styles. You think that a guy w/ a 1.3 AF is likely to barrel all streets with the majority of his range on this type of a board, which is what he has to do to make your line correct.
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