10/20 Deep tough river decision against JMC.

[samh133]

Villian is Jmc. He runs at 22/16. I've played a lot of hands with him before but have never really caught him with a big bluff in a big pot. I wouldn't say that he really floats me but he doesnt really like to fold either. Anyway, I bet on the river and he instantly shoves all in and I'm pretty sure its obvious what I'm holding. Make a hero call here?

Full Tilt Poker Game #3278624320: Table Butternut (6 max) - $10/$20 - No Limit Hold'em - 8:24:49 ET - 2007/08/17
Seat 1: jmc2536 ($4,585)
Seat 2: stevodwg ($2,177), is sitting out
Seat 3: TheMon ($1,000)
Seat 4: scoosh ($997)
Seat 5: SamH133 ($5,060)
Seat 6: PischTheFish ($1,428)
SamH133 posts the small blind of $10
PischTheFish posts the big blind of $20
5 seconds left to act
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SamH133 [Ad As]
jmc2536 raises to $70
scoosh folds
SamH133 raises to $260
PischTheFish folds
jmc2536 calls $190
*** FLOP *** [Jc 6s Js]
SamH133 bets $400
jmc2536 calls $400
*** TURN *** [Jc 6s Js] [5h]
SamH133 checks
jmc2536 checks
*** RIVER *** [Jc 6s Js 5h] [7c]
SamH133 bets $1,000
jmc2536 raises to $3,925, and is all in

[invid]

i fold because I dont like being stacked

[TheWorstPlayer]

glad to see you posting here, Sam. welcome to the forums.

edit: comment edited because I'm retarded.

edit again: I'd c/c the river probably. but definitely fold once he pushes. he probably has a pocket pair, but it can easily be a boat here. even one made on the turn or river. as you say, he's not a big believer and can easily call with a mid pocket pair on the flop.

[hardkAre]

i fold vs jmc

[EmpireMaker2]

I think this is an insta call unless he never ever bluffs i n big pots

[aislephive]

Hard to comment on the hand from my perspective since I have no idea your history or anything, but I think a hero call here is actually ok. I don't expect him to check the turn back with a boat that often with these stack sizes. If we lost I think he probably rivered a set or had a flush draw that backed into a straight perhaps. Very interesting hand, I hope you called so we can see results. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[billybeartku]

I fold.

[Nick Rivers]

This is a great spot for him to bluff, because he knows that you know that he knows what you have (overpair at best), and he knows that an overpair doesn't like to fade that kind of an all-in bet on the river. That said, it's also obviously the right move in the event he does have the boat. The only way to know in this case is a comparison of table images and some stats on the players involved.

Without further information, I think a call or fold is about EV-neutral in this case, given what I assume his bluff rate would be against a player like you, given what little I've seen of your game.

So, in the interest of variance reduction in the face of an EV-neutral decision, I'd probably just fold.

[Stinger88]

I think you see exactly 77 alot. I don't know this guy but from others' opinions on him I think I fold.

[Havok]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a great spot for him to bluff, because he knows that you know that he knows what you have (overpair at best), and he knows that an overpair doesn't like to fade that kind of an all-in bet on the river. That said, it's also obviously the right move in the event he does have the boat. The only way to know in this case is a comparison of table images and some stats on the players involved.

Without further information, I think a call or fold is about EV-neutral in this case, given what I assume his bluff rate would be against a player like you, given what little I've seen of your game.

So, in the interest of variance reduction in the face of an EV-neutral decision, I'd probably just fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this guys reasoning. I think I flip a coin when I feel like gambling and make this call once in a while for the heck of it. But, realize most of the time you do your going to lose. Folding is probably better. If however you have a good read on villian and know he may be capable of this kind of bluff play representing the Jack. I might call more often.