Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.

[z28dreams]

Preflop: Villain called your raise, but that doesn't mean much since he's playing 77% VPIP. For those that don't understand just HOW bad 77% vpip is, it includes:


Basically, everything except J6o and down that aren't connected.

Flop: Villain c/raises us here. Pokey claims a small bet means any pair, but he didn't comment what a check-raise means from villain. He does have maniac stats though, so let's give him a range of:

J9,JT,QJ,KJ,AJ
87,76
Let's do all the pairs as well - 22-TT (even though pokey says sets aren't in his range, I think a c/r flop, shove turn could definitely put them in his range)

Now, it's only $7 to call and the pot is 11.5+7+14=32.5
so we're getting about 4.64:1. This is pretty huge, and even with 2 overcards we can probably call. Let's run pokerstove against his range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.243% 25.24% 00.00% 37486 0.00 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 74.757% 74.76% 00.00% 111014 0.00 { TT-22, AJs, KJs, QJs, J9s+, 97s, 87s, 75s+, AJo, KJo, QJo, J9o+, 97o, 87o, 75o+ }

In this spot, we only need around 3:1 to call. (This is a number you should have committed to memory - overcards vs. a made pair needs around 3:1. Coincidentally, overpairs vs a lower 2 pair also have this same ratio.. i.e. AA vs 72 on a K72 board).

Turn: Well, we have a gutshot now, so we have a few more outs. Without pokerstoving this, my guess it's a pretty borderline call. ( 4.6:1 here ).

Using the same range as before, we now account for the turn T.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.438% 34.44% 00.00% 2182 0.00 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 65.562% 65.56% 00.00% 4154 0.00 { TT-22, AJs, KJs, QJs, J9s+, 97s, 87s, 75s+, AJo, KJo, QJo, J9o+, 97o, 87o, 75o+ }

So, we only need around 1.85:1 here.


So IMO, if your read is correct, yes, we can call both bets.

[udbrky]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Villain called your raise, but that doesn't mean much since he's playing 77% VPIP. For those that don't understand just HOW bad 77% vpip is, it includes:


Basically, everything except J6o and down that aren't connected.

Flop: Villain c/raises us here. Pokey claims a small bet means any pair, but he didn't comment what a check-raise means from villain. He does have maniac stats though, so let's give him a range of:


[/ QUOTE ]

Just because he has a 77% VPIP doesn't mean he's calling PFR with 77%. I'd guess more like 30%. That narrows his range to about half his limping hands.

You're getting 3.5:1 on the call of the c/r. If he only has a pair, and doesn't have an A or K kicker, calling is right, given the odds. On the turn, with 12 outs, getting almost 5:1, you're calling (about 4:1 to hit). Not to mention, he could have QJ.

I guess it depends on how much of his range is made up of naked one pairs vs. pair w/ A or K kicker, or 2-pair or sets. I don't see him bluffing on the flop.

[buttonpusher]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Villain called your raise, but that doesn't mean much since he's playing 77% VPIP. For those that don't understand just HOW bad 77% vpip is, it includes:


Basically, everything except J6o and down that aren't connected.

Flop: Villain c/raises us here. Pokey claims a small bet means any pair, but he didn't comment what a check-raise means from villain. He does have maniac stats though, so let's give him a range of:


[/ QUOTE ]

Just because he has a 77% VPIP doesn't mean he's calling PFR with 77%. I'd guess more like 30%. That narrows his range to about half his limping hands.

You're getting 3.5:1 on the call of the c/r. If he only has a pair, and doesn't have an A or K kicker, calling is right, given the odds. On the turn, with 12 outs, getting almost 5:1, you're calling (about 4:1 to hit). Not to mention, he could have QJ.

I guess it depends on how much of his range is made up of naked one pairs vs. pair w/ A or K kicker, or 2-pair or sets. I don't see him bluffing on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

We are getting 4.5:1 on the flop no?

[Bantam222]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Villain called your raise, but that doesn't mean much since he's playing 77% VPIP. For those that don't understand just HOW bad 77% vpip is, it includes:


Basically, everything except J6o and down that aren't connected.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes he is playing 77% of his overall hands but he is most likely playing tighter when facing a raise. If there are 4 limpers and he is in the SB, his range is most likely going to be ATC. If someone pushes all in his range is going to be significantly tighter. If he limps UTG and folds to a raise it will still add to this VPIP.

His range is not that wide in this situation...but still very loose

[DaycareInferno]

i know this is getting a little bit away from the question, but in this format, i like a 1/2 pot cbet, because people tend to call or raise when they have something, and give up when they have nothing. its still pretty easy to get all of your money in when you have a good hand, too.