PokerFink's 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 11)

PokerFink · #1 11-21-2007, 07:18 PM

Disclaimer: My rankings are NOT a traditional power rankings. They are projective, meaning we are ranking based on where teams will finish. Rankings are done based on the playoff guidelines, meaning the division winners get the top four seeds and tiebreakers matter. For a full explanation, please see this post. Also, when I list a team's NFL rank, it's based on DVOA unless otherwise noted.

[/b]1. DALLAS (9-1) : Apparently, my kudos may be a predictor of future success: A week after receiving my praise, Terrell Owens went off something fierce, torching the poor Washington secondary for 8 catches on 11 targets, 173 yards and 4 touchdowns. According to DPAR, it ranked as not only the best game of Owens’ career, but the third best game of the DVOA era (1996-). NEXT: vs. New York Jets.

 2. GREEN BAY (9-1) : Through the first seven games of the season, Green Bay was a “yeah, but” team. Yeah, they were 6-1, but every win was close except a Week 2 blowout of the Giants. Since then, the Packers have won by 11 in Kansas City, then absolutely demolished Minnesota and Carolina. There’s no more “yeah, but”. The Packers are legit. NEXT: @ Detroit.

 3. TAMPA BAY (6-4) : Speaking of “yeah, but”: the Bucs continue to plod along, winning the games they should, losing the games they should and generally being unimpressive. Their DVOA continues to be better than their traditional yardage and point totals because a) they operate at a slow pace (about .5 fewer drives per game than average) and b) they rank 9th in generating turnovers and 2nd at not turning it over (per drive), which don’t factor directly into total yards and points. NEXT: vs. Washington.

 4. SEATTLE (6-4) : Kudos to kicker Josh Brown for posterizing Devin Hester with a great open field tackle. I’ve never seen a kicker that excited. Wait, I’ve never seen a kicker not named Gramatica that excited. NEXT: @ St. Louis.

 5. NEW YORK (7-3) : Rueben Droughns had 11 carries for 13 yards, which is important because Droughns is the likely starter next week with Jacobs and Ward both banged up. If he can’t move the ball against Detroit, he certainly won’t move it against Minnesota’s #1 ranked rush defense. NEXT: vs. Minnesota.

 6. ARIZONA (5-5) *UP 2* : Antrelle Rolle had three interceptions, and very nearly set an NFL record by returning all three for touchdowns, but his final score was called back due to a block in the back. Offensively, the knock on Warner the past couple years is that he holds the ball too long, so I was shocked to see that Arizona ranks 4th in adjusted sack rate this year. And the only defense left on the schedule with even an average pass rush is Seattle. NEXT: vs. San Francisco.

 7. WASHINGTON (5-5) *DOWN 1* : Last week I mentioned the offense using playaction successfully - Campbell's first TD toss this week was a nice playaction pass to Cooley, who beat Roy Williams in coverage. Too bad Campbell and Cooley can’t cover TO. NEXT: @ Tampa Bay.

 8. DETROIT (6-4) *DOWN 1* : Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson get all the publicity, but the two best receivers on Detroit this year have been Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald. Furrey catches a sensational 71% of his targets, McDonald an excellent 68%. They rank 24th and 25th overall in DPAR (12.5 and 12.4 respectively), while Johnson ranks 29th and Williams 43rd. NEXT: vs. Green Bay.

 9. PHILADELPHIA (5-5) *UP 1* : It was a career day for Brian Westbrook in both carries (32) and yards (148). But why is Westbrook in the game late in the fourth quarter? He had seven useless carries (11 yards) on the last drive that should have gone to Correll Buckhalter. And from the deja vu department, the Eagles were 5-5 last year when McNabb got hurt, then they got blown out by a far superior team (Indy), before winning their last five games... NEXT: @ New England.

 10. NEW ORLEANS (4-6) *DOWN 1* : In the inaugural Reggie Bush vs. Mario Williams match-up, score a convincing victory for Williams, who had six total tackles, a sack and a forced fumble. Bush, meanwhile, was dreadful: 15 carries for just 34 yards, and though he added 12 catches for 70 yards, he fumbled twice. NEXT: @ Carolina.

 11. MINNESOTA (4-6) *UP 2* : No Peterson? No problem. Chester Taylor had 22 carries for 164 yards (7.5 ypc) and three touchdowns. Minnesota has put quite an investment into their offensive line (mostly in Hutchinson’s massive contract) and it’s paying off. Now, about that quarterback problem… NEXT: @ New York Giants.

 12. CAROLINA (4-6) *DOWN 1* : Headline: “Fox makes it clear: Testaverde is Panthers starter.” Yeah, that pretty much sums it up. (So why are they still ahead of Chicago? A) they still have San Fran on the schedule, and B) Chicago’s headline reads: “Grossman is Bears starter.”) NEXT: vs. New Orleans.

 13. CHICAGO (4-6) *DOWN 1* : Grossman was pretty solid throwing the ball in his return: 24 of 37, 266 yards (7.2 ypa), no picks. But that was when he got the throw off. He also took 5 sacks for 28 yards and fumbled. NEXT: vs. Denver.

 14. ATLANTA (3-7) : Byron Leftwich: 15 of 28, 106 yards (3.8 ypa), 3 sacks, 2 picks and a fumble. Can we please be done with this experiment now? (Also, some AFC kudos to Jack Del Rio for ditching Leftwich and going with Gerrard, who is tearing [censored] up.) NEXT: vs. Indianapolis.

 15. ST. LOUIS (2-8) : I’m pretty sure I made fun of him earlier in the season, and I know I remember watching him and thinking “god he’s terrible.” But apparently second year cornerback Tye Hill is improving – he had three passes defensed and an interception this week, leading to some praise from the TV announcers. NEXT: vs. Seattle.

 16. SAN FRANCISCO (2-8) : "All in all, the lesson of this game is that the franchise is a disaster." - Ned Macey, Football Outsiders. [b] NEXT: @ Arizona.

NajdorfDefense · #2 11-21-2007, 07:23 PM

GB
Dallas
TB
Seattle
NYG
PHL
Zona
Was
Detroit
NO
everyone else

PokerFink · #3 11-21-2007, 07:26 PM

I'd like to see your argument for Philly sixth.

And Green Bay first for that matter.

DemonDeac · #4 11-21-2007, 07:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]

And from the deja vu department, the Eagles were 5-5 last year when McNabb got hurt, then they got blown out by a far superior team (Indy), before winning their last five games... [b] NEXT: @ New England.

[/ QUOTE ]

way to jinx it

dmisfh1 · #5 11-21-2007, 07:42 PM

Pretty solid list. The only two teams I *might* think about switching up would be Detroit and Washington.

Nonfiction · #6 11-21-2007, 07:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Pretty solid list. The only two teams I *might* think about switching up would be Detroit and Washington.

[/ QUOTE ]
Good rankings, don't really see how you can complain about anything. I consider Arizona/Washington/Detroit to be basically tied for 6th, with Philly slightly behind. Arizona has a ridiculously easy schedule, Detroit has the best record, but Washington has the tie breaker vs both. Gonna be a very close race for the WC.

rafiki · #7 11-21-2007, 09:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
GB
Dallas
TB
Seattle
NYG
PHL
Zona
Was
Detroit
NO
everyone else

[/ QUOTE ]

Hahahha you think GB beats Dallas ? Well I guess we're about to find out. But ahahhahaha.

jalapenoguy · #8 11-21-2007, 09:16 PM

id switch seattle and tampa, seattle has a cake schedule and the h2h win.

kyro · #9 11-21-2007, 09:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
id switch seattle and tampa, seattle has a cake schedule and the h2h win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tampa's schedule isn't much tougher, and they are probably a better team.

Troll_Inc · #10 11-21-2007, 10:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to see your argument for Philly sixth.

And Green Bay first for that matter.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess it depends on whether on what you are judging.

1) Total effort to this point
2) If you played everyone head-head right now
3) Where they will finish.

I don't buy GB over Dallas simply for the fact that with all things equal (I don't think they are) the NFC East>Central.

But the NFC is so weak that you could put PHL 6th. At this point, I think that that they make the playoffs 50% of the time.

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