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#11
11-09-2007, 03:58 PM
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Re: 50NL: Interesting decision with a shortie
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] hes not gonna think he can move u unless hes a moran. Youve put in 27 dollars outta 50 if u call, and the pot is gonna be like over 100 if he pushes, there is no way in hell you could call and then fold. Put it in urself [/ QUOTE ] Why? Do you agree that it is highly unlikely he is drawing to more than 2 outs? Because of this, there's almost no downside to calling here. Try and squeeze a little more out of him. [/ QUOTE ] as i said hes not gonna think he can push you off anything so hes prob not coming along vs 2 others with JJ-KK. I push to get value from badly played worse Aces, and believe it or not a fd is not outta the question here 
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#12
11-09-2007, 04:05 PM
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Re: 50NL: Interesting decision with a shortie
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as i said hes not gonna think he can push you off anything so hes prob not coming along vs 2 others with JJ-KK. I push to get value from badly played worse Aces, and believe it or not a fd is not outta the question here [/ QUOTE ] As far as getting value from worse As, huh? If you call instead of shove, you think that makes it less likely for them to get money in? If they won't shove as a bluff over your call because they assume you're priced in, they certainly won't fold an actual hand on a later street facing the same odds. So this is a nonissue. Flush draws are unlikely and not really worth worrying about, but I don't think they change much, because it's not like you can price them out on the flop anyway. I think the slim chance of getting bluffed at (or getting QQ-KK to hang around) is worth more than value that you miss from letting a flush draw peel for one card and then possibly folding the turn, which I think is unlikely. The more I look at it, the more calling looks superior to shoving here.
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#13
11-09-2007, 04:14 PM
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Re: 50NL: Interesting decision with a shortie
[ QUOTE ]
As far as getting value from worse As, huh? If you call instead of shove, you think that makes it less likely for them to get money in? If they won't shove as a bluff over your call because they assume you're priced in, they certainly won't fold an actual hand on a later street facing the same odds. So this is a nonissue. [/ QUOTE ] i agree with this, its just the simple addage of "get it in before they know theyre behind. Like you said if its going in its going in, my personal preference is to get it in now. [ QUOTE ] Flush draws are unlikely and not really worth worrying about, but I don't think they change much, because it's not like you can price them out on the flop anyway. I think the slim chance of getting bluffed at (or getting QQ-KK to hang around) is worth more than value that you miss from letting a flush draw peel for one card and then possibly folding the turn, which I think is unlikely. [/ QUOTE ] this would be easier to deem with reads on the opponent. Readless you have no clue if hes dumb enuff to come along with QQ or not, or if he is in the hand with KdQd. I still think the pot is so large that most villians will know u are committed and not come along drawing to 2 outs just bc u call. Who knows tho. What range do u think utg puts u on flat calling?
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#14
11-09-2007, 04:19 PM
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Re: 50NL: Interesting decision with a shortie
[ QUOTE ]
this would be easier to deem with reads on the opponent. Readless you have no clue if hes dumb enuff to come along with QQ or not, or if he is in the hand with KdQd. I still think the pot is so large that most villians will know u are committed and not come along drawing to 2 outs just bc u call. Who knows tho. What range do u think utg puts u on flat calling? [/ QUOTE ] Not sure. Since hero was the 3 bettor, there's a slight chance they can put you on a FD. Possibly JJ-KK, and a couple of As. I'm not saying that I think there's a huge chance that you're going to get more action here, but you want more action, and I think calling is more likely to get it for you than shoving.
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#15
11-09-2007, 04:20 PM
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Re: 50NL: Interesting decision with a shortie
if hes dumb enough to have a flush draw... hes not folding ever... there really is no down side to slowing down here and hoping QQ/KK or some hand like that decides to hang around or make a terrible bluff (yes i have seen horrible bluffs like this)
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#16
11-09-2007, 04:21 PM
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Re: 50NL: Interesting decision with a shortie
I like the idea of trying to induce the overcall and getting it in on the turn. Even with implied odds we're only giving him 7-1 pot odds on the call, which is not enough for any 2 or 3-outer to profitably call but will look awfully tempting - much more so than an immediate push. If we do induce the overcall, we've bloated the pot even more and increased our chance of getting it all in on the turn.
Sure, calling here gives flush draws better odds, but we're not folding a flush draw with a flop push anyways. We also have to discount flushes here, because that means he called a pre-flop 3-bet w/KQs at best, not a likely scenario.
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#18
11-09-2007, 05:49 PM
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Re: 50NL: Interesting decision with a shortie
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i don't really understand, you put 1/3ish ur stack in pf and this flop scares you? [/ QUOTE ] lol I wasn't scared to get the money in, that's one of the few flops where tptk is a real monster. I'm just interested in other lines. As for reads there really arn't any, this hand happened a while ago so we'll have to assume two randoms. btw the shortie was a total donk.
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