Two pair 5/10

[MDMA]

Hero is at seat 0 with $5029.50.
x is at seat 1 with $0 (sitting out).
UTG is at seat 2 with $2139.50.
CO is at seat 3 with $1119.
Button is at seat 4 with $3564.75.
SB is at seat 5 with $1061.50.
The button is at seat 4.

SB posts the small blind of $5.
Hero posts the big blind of $10.

Hero: Tc 2c
UTG: -- --
CO: -- --
D: -- --
SB: -- --

Pre-flop:

UTG folds. CO folds. Button
folds. SB raises to $30. Hero calls.


Flop (board: 7d Th 2h):

SB checks. Hero bets $50. SB
calls.

Turn (board: 7d Th 2h Kd):

SB checks. Hero bets $125. SB
calls.

River (board: 7d Th 2h Kd Qd):

SB checks.

Villain is 27/17, although on the TAG:ier side. Probably a break even or slightly winning player.

Question is do you bet?

[JMP300z]

Yes, I think so, the key question is what does he check call the flop with. Does he lead out his draws as well as top pair hands, then we must put him on a set or maybe AK/AQ.

Also, this is a blind battle and he might call off as weak as AT or QJ. I know hes short stacky but if you bet 275 or whatever, itll be 610 or so more to you when he cr and youll be getting like what 2 1/3 -1 so fold.

end rambling.

-JP

edit to add: 9J for the flopped gutshot got there but I dont see how he would make it to the river like this.

[TheGrifter]

I don't see many hands you beat calling a bet here. You'll probably lose weaker blind defense hands, you'll lose draws.

He may have gotten there with a larger two pair and be c-c in case you have a set.

I don't see how a bet can be +ev here.

[ahnuld]

Hard to see a hand like KQ calling the flop. Much ore likely to see AK there or even AT there (some guys seem to slowplay if they flop TPTK zomg!) and you can get paid off by those hands. Plus I still think you have room to bet/fold.

[bet2win]

I'd check, dont think he is calling with 1 pair and I dont want to be bluff raised cos I wont be calling.

Pretty easy check unless you have some super LAG image

[illuminati]

wtf why was this moved? mdma is a money poster, and this is 500bb deep.

weakkk

[BobboFitos]

id fold or repop pf. fold likely.

pretty easy bet, too, he's check called you twice and its blind combat... so easy for him to have 1pair that looks you up. esp. if he knows you defend your blind as... liberally.. as this hand shows.

[ahnuld]

[ QUOTE ]
wtf why was this moved? mdma is a money poster, and this is 500bb deep.

weakkk

[/ QUOTE ]

wtf are you talking about, its 1k deep and whoever is posting has no impact on where hands should be posted. Besides, if its not a HU grudge match, it doesnt belong in NHSL

[JMa]

so we are afraid of QT or maaybe KQ? bet it.

[Gary Stevenson]

i bet here to make it look like a missed draw/3barrel etc. and hope he looks us up with w/e 1pr he has. i doubt he's checking a better hand here on the river...maybe QT, but i dont see many other hands that beat us checking. not sure i like that call pf though MD...