Irisheyes' MLB Overnight Robot

[irisheyes]

YTD 0-0 +0u

Well, it's been quiet here on the MLB front for a little while. And as I'm forcibly weaning myself from Crockpot's picks *sniff* and with great thanks and respect to the posters here I've designed a model that I think is different than TomG (and also unfortunately different than Crockpot). In no way do I claim it is better, and as this is a new system--fade/follow at your own risk. Some of you may recall I started this season blindly fading the Red Sox. Caveat bettor.

What is different about it? Weighted lineups, attention to DIPS/sabermetric stats, and blending projections (PECOTA, etc.) and season to date stats.

I've been winning with it but given the ridiculously small sample size I could just as easily prove the world is flat.

Clearly, I will get crushed.

6/28
PIT@FLA
FLA -156
Risk 3.12 units to win 2

CIN@PHI
CIN +142
Risk 1 unit to win 1.42

STL@NYM
STL +167
Risk 1 unit to win 1.67

COL@HOU
COL +158
Risk 1 unit to win 1.58

CWS@TB
TB -129
Risk 1.29 units to win 1

Good luck.

[TomG]

Good luck. I'm actually heading down a similar path myself in regards to blending in more BaseballProspectus stats and creating my own model. When I have things updated I will bump my thread with picks. Long live Robot betting! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[irisheyes]

Some brief reasoning behind the picks.

PIT @FLA: The fish have the edge in starter, bullpen, offense, and defense. And they're at home.

CIN @PHI: In my opinion, the most marginal of my plays today. Belisle trumps Eaton, but the Reds lag the Phils in run production. Coin toss on a neutral field, and if so the -152 is unjustified.

STL @NYM: Value in Wainwright. He's coming back to form.

COL @HOU: Close value play on COL. Hopefully the National League's worst bullpen gets a chance to give up a few late runs once Oswalt is done.

CWS @TB: Battle of the league-worst bullpens. Vazquez is overperforming and Kazmir is underperforming. I believe the line reflects that, and I think the line is wrong. Same basic logic as the FLA pick above.

[KUJustin]

What's your winrate been like so far? I ask because I have basically an identical system set up though it's not for gambling purposes. I'm thinking it might be time to repurpose it.

I've also got a couple of little twists in it that I'm not sure anyone else is using.

[irisheyes]

Tom, I'm a big fan of your thread and I owe you a debt of gratitude. Looking forward to your continued posting. It will be quite interesting to see where and if we differ.

[irisheyes]

Justin,

you've basically hit on the key to why I started this thread. I have not been religious in keeping my own system bets separate from picks from TomG, Crock, and other sources.

YTD, I'm 169-153 betting 62% underdogs/38% favorites. 85%+ of these picks were sourced elsewhere. Clearly it's been a good year, but I'll never know if it's truly sustainable unless this model proves out.

[AAmucked]

Can you explain why you risk x units to win 1 when betting on a favorite and not x units to win 1 when betting on an underdog?

I think this has always been the case with Crock (or has it) and I've never done it, which makes me feel like a square.

[irisheyes]

Crock does the same thing as he just explained on the blog. My reasoning is a bit different, and might be flawed.

I do it so that the average win/loss is 1u. I should win more often with favorites, but that is canceled out the costlier losses--so it should average out to 1 unit per win. Similarly with underdogs I lose more frequently, but when I win it hopefully makes up for the additional losing events -- again averaging at or above 1 unit per win.

[B00T]

good luck with it

[irisheyes]

6/28 Results 1-3

YTD 1-3 (-1.29u)

Tough losses. Two walk-offs. Them's the brakes.