quick question for you football ousider guys

sublime · #1 01-08-2007, 04:43 AM

is weighted DVOA a better indicator a teams current strength than overall DVOA? instinctively i would say yes, but i want to make sure.

Vyse · #2 01-08-2007, 04:52 AM

Yes. It tosses out earlier games, so if you believe that what a team has done in the past couple of months is more important than what they did in September and such, then yes.

Thremp · #3 01-08-2007, 05:04 AM

Vyse,

Does this weight for injury, personnel changes etc?

sublime · #4 01-08-2007, 05:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Yes. It tosses out earlier games, so if you believe that what a team has done in the past couple of months is more important than what they did in September and such, then yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

well it doesnt actually toss them out.

VarlosZ · #5 01-08-2007, 05:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
is weighted DVOA a better indicator a teams current strength than overall DVOA? instinctively i would say yes, but i want to make sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a better predictor of future success, so yes.

VarlosZ · #6 01-08-2007, 05:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Vyse,

Does this weight for injury, personnel changes etc?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, for various reasons. It just increases the relative importance of recent games in the rating.

Jack of Arcades · #7 01-08-2007, 11:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes. It tosses out earlier games, so if you believe that what a team has done in the past couple of months is more important than what they did in September and such, then yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

well it doesnt actually toss them out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, it does toss them out.

Jack of Arcades · #8 01-08-2007, 11:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Vyse,

Does this weight for injury, personnel changes etc?

[/ QUOTE ]

Right now, adjusting for injury is asking a bit much of a statistical system.

Jack of Arcades · #9 01-08-2007, 11:46 AM

by the way, read the FO FAQ. Lot of good stuff in there.

Thremp · #10 01-08-2007, 12:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Vyse,

Does this weight for injury, personnel changes etc?

[/ QUOTE ]

Right now, adjusting for injury is asking a bit much of a statistical system.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was asking for the same adjustment more or less. Like if Peyton goes down... could you plug it in and pull out a new DVOA value that would be accurate.

Seems like the answer is no, thanks for the help.