Bluff river raise against a TAG

BrassMonkey · #1 11-13-2007, 09:57 PM

Villian is 26/21/2 over 136 hands. Correct me if I'm wrong, but this is a great spot to make this play, no?

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.20 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

River: (6.20 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises

Apanage · #2 11-13-2007, 10:05 PM

Not really.
If I were him I would fold KK,QQ and TT. But on the other hand I would have checked river with those hands.
When he bets river it is suicide to make this move unless he is one of the guys that don´t realize that they should avoid bet fold lines against thinking TAG:s.

yourface · #3 11-13-2007, 10:12 PM

put villain on a range of hands. pretty sure all of his hands beat you, so break it up like

missed hands that beat me
pairs < A that beat me
pairs of aces that beat me

and figure out how many pairs < A that he needs to fold for this to be a profitable raise.

when putting his range together something that you need to consider is will villain bet this river with pairs less than an ace. this appears to be a good bluff spot because we can rep an ace pretty credibly but for that same reason many players will c/c a hand like JQ or 66, or they won't bet and fold to a raise. a good hand reader will know that you likely have a lot of draws in your range after the flop and turn as well as Ax hands

if villain can let go of ace high I think a flop or turn raise is in order

rzk · #4 11-13-2007, 10:19 PM

if you haven't done anything silly vs. him so far i think it's fine to do this. your bluff needs to work 2 times out of 9 so i think it's probably slightly +EV. but even if he calls and you lose, he will be more likely to pay you off in the future when you have a real hand and he will also be more likely to check the river against you out of position allowing you to value own him.

Apanage · #5 11-13-2007, 10:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if you haven't done anything silly vs. him so far i think it's fine to do this. your bluff needs to work 2 times out of 9 so i think it's probably slightly +EV. but even if he calls and you lose, he will be more likely to pay you off in the future when you have a real hand and he will also be more likely to check the river against you out of position allowing you to value own him.

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Firstly our odds is 7.20:2. Secondly what hands would you bet/fold on river if you were him?
If I were villain I wouldn´t bet much at all.I think even a halfweak pair of aces are better of check/calling since there is a draw heavy board.And if we bet, only the most suspicious players calls our bet with a worse hand.So there isn´t much value in betting.

BryanC · #6 11-13-2007, 10:41 PM

What exactly do you think he's bet/folding here? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

rzk · #7 11-13-2007, 11:51 PM

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Firstly our odds is 7.20:2.

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which means the bluff needs to work 2 out of 9.2 times.

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Secondly what hands would you bet/fold on river if you were him?

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this depends on how i would view the hero. against a loose passive i would bet/fold anything that beats a jack. if i knew the hero was a tag i'd just check if i didn't have an ace.

but the thing is - it doesn't matter what i'd do, it matters what players that fit the description in the OP do. yes, some players would check their QQ or whatever, but i think many players would just keep betting their whole range because they don't want to show weakness, because they don't know how to respond to a bet if they check, and because there's a chance that they will get paid off by a jack or some low pp.

i guess it's AT+ vs. discounted QQ,KK, and sometimes even lower pocket pairs that are hoping the hero was on a draw or is willing to fold a weak jack. the Ax hands i guess should also be somewhat discounted because he might not always bet the turn UI. do we get 2 out of 9.2? i don't know, maybe not, but i think it's pretty close.

EDIT: oh, and some villains will c/c AT because the flush came in, because they are afraid of a better ace, and because they don't think they get paid off much by worse hands, so AT needs to be discounted even more.

Heisenb3rg · #8 11-14-2007, 05:01 AM

nh, itd be nicer if the board was a little less drawy though....
A stubborn player would be more likely to call this river with < A, if the board hadnt been so drawy.
At least the club draw came in on the river...

I think a guy with those stats is b/f enough for you to make a profit.
I also think its important to bluff raise in these spots occasionally, so that you can raise for value in similar spots...
Or get it checked to you and get information about their hand..

I also disagree with a lot of peoples estimates ranges for villain here..
I think we have to put some hands like KQ and KT in his range, which will definitly be betting and folding to a river raise.

inferno · #9 11-14-2007, 05:02 AM

no

if you like raising, raise the turn

Oink · #10 11-14-2007, 06:22 AM

This looks good to me.

Villain should be b/f KK, QQ and maybe betting TT and below, KJ, QJs, JTs, KQ, KT, K9s, K8s.

@ Apanage. Are you really c/c KK and QQ and weak Ax, x<J here against a TAG? If so, unless the TAG is a moron you loose 1 bet close to 100% when you call.

If you check to me on that river I am only betting hands that beat KK but I am calling hands that loose to KK.