How long will wcoop main really last?

[sheetsworld]

I am really looking for people who know how to work this stuff out, nit just instinct based guesses. We can presume 70 hands per hour, and all of the other information reagrding the structure and the breaks are on the poker stars client.

Anyone know anything about how to do this?

[gobbomom]

I know this is weird, but Evenkeal worked out the length of the 530 from the beginning and was only an hour off.

edit: depending on the time zones he was using, he might've been on the money.

[mastr]

how are you in contact with evankeal?

[Body Man D]

If you have 3k runners to start with 20k stacks then you would have the same number of chips in play as event #5 which had 6k runners with 10k to start. Since they have the same structure other than starting stacks then I would think they would run approximately the same amount of time, which was 20.5 hours.

Obviously the number of runners would have an impact. 3k is just an assumption.

[LearnedfromTV]

[ QUOTE ]
If you have 3k runners to start with 20k stacks then you would have the same number of chips in play as event #5 which had 6k runners with 10k to start. Since they have the same structure other than starting stacks then I would think they would run approximately the same amount of time, which was 20.5 hours.

Obviously the number of runners would have an impact. 3k is just an assumption.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking the same thing.

But the field will be stronger and stacks will be deeper in the early stages, so relative to the 530 more chips will be concentrated in the hands of better players, which will reduce the rate of eliminations (because bad players stack off more easily with 30+ BB chip stacks).

Anyway, without a lot of past data on

a) the comparative length of tournaments with the same structure and number of players, but different buyins/field strengths

b) the comparative length of tournaments with the same number of chips in play and the same structures, but a different number of runners

we can't really know what that effect will be.

Also, the best source for this data wouldn't be regular online mtts, but 60 minute level live events with large fields and decent size starting stacks. The closest thing I can think of are the midbuyin wsop events, but those fields aren't really big enough to be good comparison points either.

I don't think we can make an educated guess until after we see the length of the $1050, which will have 15000 starting chips, especially if it has ~4k runners, which will give it the same number of chips as the 530 (and the expected number of chips for the main event).

[sheetsworld]

I got this from Pokerstars:

Hello Eric,

To be blunt, we're not really sure how long the tournament will take, as we're not sure how many people will sign up nor how the action will progress once the cards are in the air, etc.

I can tell you that last year, the event had the Sunday Million blinds with 30 minute levels (vs 15 in the SM) and 10K chips (vs 2500 in the SM)..
This year the event has the Sunday Million blinds with 30 minute levels (vs 15 in the SM) and 20K chips (vs 10K in the SM).

The difference between the event lengths this year and last is largely a result of growth of the site and the event series between 2006 and now.
Event #2 last year was similar to this years with respect to the Million:
same blinds, same starting chips, 30-minute levels. However, 1,530 more people played in the $530 event this year than did last year. The result was a tournament which lasted quite a bit longer than last year's event.

In the end, I'm not able to give you an estimate of the event's length, I'm afraid. I can tell you that last year the three Sunday events were fairly close to each other in total length.

All the best,

Bryan S.
Tournaments Administrator
PokerStars Poker Room Management TEam


>>I am really trying to figure out whether this WCOOP main event will be
too
>>much for me to handle .
>>
>>I see that there are 20000 in starting chips, 25 50 levels to start,
>>and
a
>>30 minute increase.
>>
>>I am well aware that you cannot determine in adavnce when any
>>tournament will end, but I am sure that the softwware that you use to
>>create
>structures
>>can make an educated guess. While I certainly will not HOLD you to
>>this, how long to you imagine the tourney will take, given 2000,3000,
>>and 4000 entrants, given the published structure on the site?
>>
>>If there is a formula that you could share with me for the future that
>would
>>certainly be intellectually interesting as well, but I will certainly
>>apprecaite and be grateful for at least your most educated guess.
>>
>>
>>sheets
>>

[str8upnutz]

It seems like the formula would look something like this...

t20,000 * 3000 (runners) = 60,000,000 total chips in play

30,000,000 will be average stack HU and i would assume play will comtinue until stacks average around 50 BB's or 100BB's total in play.

so with these assumptions i would estimate it to end around the 300k/600k level (30,000,000 / 50= 600,000 ).

[BadgerPro]

The $530 had about 6k people and lasted 21 hours. With 10k starting stacks they had 60M chips in play.

The $2600 has a guarantee that would be 2k people and I think most are guessing around 3k people. With 20k starting stacks that would put 60M chips in play. Since it has the same structure as the $530 I'd guess it would last the same amount of time.

Only thing that would probably change this is if the ME gets 3500-4k people. Then you could expect a few extra hours.

[LearnedfromTV]

I guess most of the stuff in my post is a little more complicated than necessary, since it really just boils down to what the stacks will be headsup, but I think a case can be made that the final few tables will be tight enough/well played enough that stacks will be down to 30-40bb, or even lower, by the time headsup is settled.

[Silent A]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess most of the stuff in my post is a little more complicated than necessary, since it really just boils down to what the stacks will be headsup, but I think a case can be made that the final few tables will be tight enough/well played enough that stacks will be down to 30-40bb, or even lower, by the time headsup is settled.

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming the blind levels don't plateau before this happens.

I can't check the client from here. What's the last published level?