Oscar Picks Thread

SonnyJay · #1 02-23-2007, 06:05 PM

I wanted to start a thread for those of us with action on the Oscars and post my picks.

Warning: I have not done this before. I came up with these bets by doing historical research, talking to people who follow the movie business, and reading articles from people in the know. Just going to post my picks and rationale, take from them what you will.

Did my betting through Greek, Bodog, WSEX contracts, and Intrade contracts (the spinoff from TradeSports for non-sports markets). I don’t have an account at CRIS, but they had some good lines for underdogs there. Also, I’m using “units” more as a method of standardization than an indication of how much of your bankroll to place on the bet.

BEST ACTOR
Almost certainly going to be Forrest Whitaker for Last King of Scotland. Has won every major indicator award he’s been eligible for and is pretty much in the same position that Philip Seymour Hoffman was in last year. Peter O’Toole is getting some run for Venus because he’s never won an acting Oscar and this is pretty much his last chance. However, he doesn’t seem to have nearly enough steam to unseat Whitaker.

You can get him at Greek at -545 and Intrade at -488 (after commissions), and I think there’s still value there at those prices. I managed to get him a while ago at +200. This could get cancelled, but I’m praying it doesn’t.

MY PLAY: Forrest Whitaker for The Last King of Scotland, 2u to win 4u

BEST ACTRESS
Helen Mirren has this locked up for her work in The Queen. Indicator awards, critics predictions, etc., no one is picking against her. No discussion here, as evidenced by the fact that the lines I currently see range from -1900 (Intrade) to -3700 (CRIS). I took the little money I had left in my Intrade account and put it on her at -1900. Not putting any more on her simply due to the amount of funds I easily have access to right now.

MY PLAY: Helen Mirren for The Queen, 1.5u to win 0.1u

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Eddie Murphy is the favorite here for Dreamgirls, but some are worrying that the fact that Norbit commercials were all over the place while people were casting their Oscar ballots could sway the vote away from him. Also, Little Miss Sunshine is very well liked by a certain segment of the media, and they could bring in the vote for Alan Arkin.

I don’t have a play on this directly, but I do have him in a prop that I’ll mention below. I think at the current prices (-160 at Greek) he’s still the best play.

MY PLAY: None (except prop below)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Hudson from Dreamgirls is the big favorite here. Critics express concerns that she doesn’t have any prior acting experience and that she’s not really an “Oscar Actress,” but she’s won all of the indicator awards and there’s not a candidate with enough buzz to potentially take it away from her (unlike Arkin for Supporting Actor). Abigail Breslin from Little Miss Sunshine is probably the closest. The best lines I see on her are -376 on Intrade (after commissions) and -488 at WSEX.

I don’t have a play directly on her, but Greek has a prop listed on “Will Dreamgirls win both Supporting categories?” I was able to catch this at +100 and -125, but it’s down to -150 now. Don’t like it as much at that price, but I’d watch it since it has fluctuated pretty frequently since they set it.
The given lines for both Murphy and Hudson give a rough estimate that Murphy is about 65% and Hudson is about 85% to win. These are only rough estimates, but they’re fairly accurate according to the research. If Murphy and Hudson winning were independent events, there the outcomes are as follows:

Both: 55%
Only Murphy: 10%
Only Hudson: 30%
Neither: 5%

This results in a 0EV breakeven line of -122. However, they are not independent events. Dreamgirls is not a typical Oscar movie, and a voter that is willing to vote for one is probably more likely to vote for the other. This means that the percentages for Both and Neither are likely to increase and the Only One percentages are likely to decrease. If you say that the Both percentage increases 5% to 60%, the 0EV line becomes -150.

None of these numbers are exact, and even though I think that the best side of the bet at -150 is “Yes”, I wouldn’t play it at this price. If it bounces back to about -135 I really like it.

MY PLAY: Both Eddie Murphy and Jennifer Hudson to win for Dreamgirls, 2.3u to win 2u

BEST DIRECTOR
It seems to be Scorsese’s year for The Departed. He’s never won, he put out a very popular film that has won lots of praise, he’s won almost all of the indicator awards, and he has tons of support for him to finally win one. Clint Eastwood is very popular in the Academy and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu has won praise for Babel, but I think Marty’s close to a lock. Best line I see right is Greek at -615, I grabbed it at WSEX recently at -488 and -567.

MY PLAY: Martin Scorsese for The Departed, 13.4u to win 2.6u

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
This award has existed since 2001, and there are only 2 major indicator awards for it. Here’s the breakdown over the last few years:

Academy Awards: Wallace & Gromit, The Incredibles, Finding Nemo, Spirited Away, Shrek
Annie Awards: Wallace & Gromit, The Incredibles, Finding Nemo, Spirited Away, Shrek
Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards: Wallace & Gromit, The Incredibles, Finding Nemo, Spirited Away, Shrek

I’ve heard that this exists because animated films tend to have fewer and less subjective metrics that critics evaluate the film on, and thus critics tend to view them more similarly than live-action films. Both the Annie and BFCAA picked Cars this year (as did the Golden Globes and Producers Guild, which have added the award in the last 2 years). It seems like a lot of critics like Happy Feet, which is likely why the line for Cars is not that bad, but I really like it at these prices. It’s at -240 at Greek right now.

MY PLAY: Cars, 4.8u to win 2u

BEST PICTURE
This is one of the closest races in a while. While The Queen has no chance of winning and Letters From Iwo Jima has almost no chance of winning, the pickers are pretty split on The Departed, Babel, and Little Miss Sunshine.

The Departed is indeed the favorite, but if I were to bet a single one it would be Babel. It has received the late support that Crash rode to the Best Picture win last year, it has been picked by many of the most accurate Best Picture critics (such as Ebert), and at +344 (WSEX) it has the most favorable odds of the big 3. While Little Miss Sunshine has plenty of supporters, the facts that it has no nominations in the indicator categories (Editing, Director) and few nominations overall will probably hurt it.

Many of my bets were made a few weeks ago when the picture was somewhat hazy (but still clear that 3 were ahead of the other 2), so many of my bets were combinations intended to produce equal outcomes between the 3. For example, I was able to “arb” the three films a few weeks ago at a 15% ROI. I have since focused my bets on Departed and Babel.

I would bet Babel straight up for value, “arb” Babel and Departed for a more stable position, and “arb” all three if you want to take almost no risk.

MY PLAY:
If Babel: +2.4u
If Departed: +2.3u
If Little Miss Sunshine: -1.2u
If any other: -12.6u

Looking forward to hearing from some other posters that have plays on the big night. Good luck!

-SonnyJay

New001 · #2 02-23-2007, 06:12 PM

I picked up a unit on Babel last week and I might put a little on Departed as well like you say but will probably let it ride. I like this writeup a lot, thanks.

rush66 · #3 02-23-2007, 06:19 PM

Im on all of these the same.

Wyrm2 · #4 02-23-2007, 08:45 PM

Will Hill seems to think that Mirren is a sure thing, they have already paid off the people who bet on her. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

http://www.gm.tv/index.cfm?articleid=24698

wiper · #5 02-23-2007, 09:54 PM

why would forrest get cancelled if you got it 'a while ago'??

don't worry, be happy, you have yourself a 4 unit winnnar!

stereoman · #6 02-23-2007, 10:06 PM

Bodog might reconsider that it was a funky line and not pay up on it.

TheFish · #7 02-23-2007, 11:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Will Hill seems to think that Mirren is a sure thing, they have already paid off the people who bet on her. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

http://www.gm.tv/index.cfm?articleid=24698

[/ QUOTE ]

So if I max out (Maximum risk per bet is $1,250.00) I can win $50?

[b]where's my credit card?!?!?[b]

NajdorfDefense · #8 02-24-2007, 01:16 PM

Current Bet
Selection Price

Oscars 2007 - Best Director
Martin Scorsese (The Departed)
1.40
Bet Type: Straight bet on above selections Bet Price: 1.40
Bet Amount: $ 250.00
Bet Payout: $ 350.00
Time Placed: January 26, 2007 6:08 PM

Current Bet
Selection Price

Oscars 2007 - Best Actress in a Leading Role
Helen Mirren
1.20
Bet Type: Straight bet on above selections Bet Price: 1.20
Bet Amount: $ 250.00
Bet Payout: $ 300.00
Time Placed: January 26, 2007 6:00 PM

Date placed:
Feb 13, 2007 5:40p Single #67139143
Film/Television Props (Game) Moneyline
Odds On: What movie will win the Oscar for "Best Motion Picture of the Year" at the 79th Annual Academy Awards?
Any wagers placed after outcome becomes public knowledge will be graded as No Action. No refunds. No over limit wagers. All wagers will be graded based on results as posted by www.oscars.org. Max $50.
(8730) The Departed 3/2 Feb 25/07@1:00p
Risk $50.00 to win $75.00

I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Helen Mirren at these odds.

NajdorfDefense · #9 02-24-2007, 05:28 PM

Eddie Murphy Pinny
Yes -159
No 143

Eddie Murphy vip
No +160
$300 max. 12% better odds than Pinny.

NajdorfDefense · #10 02-25-2007, 10:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Eddie Murphy vip
No +160
$300 max. 12% better odds than Pinny.

[/ QUOTE ]

winner! This makes up for some hellaciously bad cbb betting this week. gogo Helen Mirren and Marty!

VIP also had +375 on Little Miss Sunshine so I took some of that to hedge the Departed risk.