UB 3/6 I c/f a crappy river... weak?

Oink · #1 01-18-2007, 07:43 PM

Villain is 44/28/1.9 with ASB 48 after ~100 hands.

6 handed. Villain Opens OTB, sb folds, I defend my BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Flop ~ 4SB
J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I c/r he calls.

turn ~ 4BB
K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet, he calls

river ~ 6BB
A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Hero c/f's.

Weak?
If you dont c/f feel free to rank b/f versus c/c.

ILOVEPOKER929 · #2 01-18-2007, 08:36 PM

River decision is close between check/call and check/fold. Bet/folding here would be really bad, cuz the villain is unlikely to call the river with a worse hand on that board, and he looks crazy enough to possibly make a play on that river card. I would check/call the river cuz this guy looks like the type that will always bet when checked to in this spot.

nickg1532 · #3 01-18-2007, 09:02 PM

yeah, bad river and he probably just drew out, but i think c/c is ok. this guy would have 3 bet a bigger J on the flop, or probably raised the turn if he had a K. So the question is, can he have something other than an A or flush and bet if you check? With his stats, I think he can often enough to c/c (PPs < JJ, Q9, 5's or 3's, etc.). This guy is probably betting any 2 cards after you check that scare card

gehrig · #4 01-19-2007, 03:47 PM

god this is an easy c/f

if u check no worse hand is betting. theres no missed draws and 66 is ecstatic to get a free showdown

nickg1532 · #5 01-19-2007, 04:51 PM

i think a 45/30/2 guy will bet 66 often here

ILOVEPOKER929 · #6 01-19-2007, 05:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
god this is an easy c/f

[/ QUOTE ]

Against this particular player, this is not an easy check/fold. I am not suggesting that C/Fing is wrong, but rather the expection between check/calling and check/folding is very close. I would lean towards the check/call side becuz I believe this guys opening range on the BTN is going to be very wide, and his range when he gets to the river is going to be looser than normal and he looks like the type of player that will bet when checked too particularly when a scare card hits. Generally speaking, vs these type of players I tend to showdown a lot more often than usual, and this hand illustrates my approach.

We can debate all day about whether this is a check/fold or a check/call vs this guy and no clear conclusion may ever be possible, but there is one thing that is absolutely clear to me, saying that the hero has an easy check/fold with this strong of a hand vs this guy is absolutely wrong.

27offsooot · #7 01-19-2007, 05:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i think a 45/30/2 guy will bet 66 often here

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my thought as well. He's really betting a lot on the river. Of course a lot beats u.

Against a normal opp, easy c/f on river and fold PF. Here, i'm not sure.

TheHip41 · #8 01-19-2007, 05:12 PM

This looks like a bad river card in theory, but it's really not. He can't have a flush: notice the lack of a flop 3bet, or a turn raise.

He can't have a K: Notice the no turn raise, he cant have a better J, no raise on the flop or the turn.

He can't have Aces up, cause he would Free showdown with A5 or A3 probalby.

So really, you are losing to only Ax that peeled with nothing and hit a 3 outer, therefore, I'm not folding.

This guy looks dumb enough to bet a five or air on the river, so I'd check call.

TheHip41 · #9 01-19-2007, 05:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
god this is an easy c/f

if u check no worse hand is betting. theres no missed draws and 66 is ecstatic to get a free showdown

[/ QUOTE ]

are you seroius?

this is the greatest bluff card in the deck for those lag/tags.

he's never checking a pair, hoping you fold a J. And from my post above, he just can't have two pair or a straight or a flush because he just called the turn.

You lose only to A-x, that called with no pair, no draw.

This is an easy river decision, but it's check/call.

colgin · #10 01-19-2007, 05:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think a 45/30/2 guy will bet 66 often here

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my thought as well. He's really betting a lot on the river. Of course a lot beats u.

Against a normal opp, easy c/f on river and fold PF. Here, i'm not sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think villain will value-bluff hands like TT-66 here (all of which he could have conceivably played this way up until the river), which I would guess a guy with villain's stats is capable of, then you should check-call.

If he will bet those hands you are getting way more than enough overlay from the pot. I would expect a typical player to check hose hands through and would fold. Against this villain I call.