Raise the river?

[BeatPurdue]

Villian (25/10 over 110 hands) took such an odd line I really had no idea where I stood.

Do you call or raise this river?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

UTG+1 ($104)
Hero ($303.65)
MP2 ($202)
MP3 ($224.85)
CO ($280.90)
Button ($52)
SB ($201)
BB ($444.10)
UTG ($296.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $6</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $6, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, BB calls $4.

Flop: ($19) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $14</font>, BB folds, UTG calls $14.

Turn: ($47) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $24</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $60</font>, UTG calls $36.

River: ($167) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $40</font>, Hero ????

[Cry Me A River]

Yeah, it's weird. Kinda looks like he called your flop bet with overs (likely with the FD) and hit a pair on the turn (ie: AJ[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]). Otherwise, I can't really see him checking that flop with a big pair like JJ/QQ that you'd have to worry about. A5/56 would be unlikely given the PFR but not unheard of.

Those little donk bets are worrisome though. They usually either mean "I have a weakish hand or a draw and I'm hoping you'll just fold or let me get through cheap" or "I have a monster, please raise me" and they're usually consistant per player (that is, they always do one or the other). Wish we had more of a read...

Yeah, I raise river. I think if you're beat he wouldn't just call the turn. 'Cept you're both deep so maybe he's clever...

[Jeff76]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, it's weird. Kinda looks like he called your flop bet with overs (likely with the FD) and hit a pair on the turn (ie: AJ).

[/ QUOTE ]This looks to me like exactly A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and he's making a blocking bet on the river.

I'd raise, but I'd make it small because I'm fairly certain he'll fold unless he feels completely priced in.

Edit: Though I don't know why he'd check A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the flop- he'd have a HUGE draw . . .

[good_gamble]

I make it around $100