More interesting coinflip

xorbie · #1 02-23-2006, 10:10 PM

Some rich guy comes up to you and offers you the following:

Either you can take a coinflip for everything you own getting 100:1, or you can roll a 100 sided die, and you double up on anything but a 1, in which case you lose everything.

Which do you take?

Claunchy · #2 02-23-2006, 10:10 PM

100 sided die. Variance sucks.

xorbie · #3 02-23-2006, 10:12 PM

Just want to clarify you can only do this once.

Hiltonian · #4 02-23-2006, 10:13 PM

I think I would rather have the chance to be retarded rich and set for anything I wanted to do in life enough to take the 50/50. I could definitely recover from losing everything, so its not like its the end of my life or something.

billygrippo · #5 02-23-2006, 10:15 PM

the coinflip is a better bet.

rbenuck4 · #6 02-23-2006, 10:15 PM

at this point in my life, doubling up won't mean as much to me five years or 20 years from now as making 100X as much. Who cares about variance. I wanna be rich

Prodigy54321 · #7 02-23-2006, 10:21 PM

coinflip for 100:1

*note to self...hide $200 for bankroll in case I go busto*

Autocratic · #8 02-23-2006, 10:25 PM

For everything I own I'd have to go the safe route. The coinflip is enticing, but a 99% chance of doubling my worth is the better option.

billygrippo · #9 02-23-2006, 10:25 PM

anyone willing to offer this bet to me?

z28dreams · #10 02-23-2006, 10:27 PM

I'm young enough that the coinflip for 100:1 would be a way better bet. If I lose it all...oh well, it's not that much. A double up would be great, but it wouldn't be life-changing...so who cares.

Now, if I was 40-50... I definitely take the 100-sided die bet.

You can do EV calculations, but in this case you just can't rebuy, so it has a lot more to do with where you are in life...family....etc.