NL25 - OESFD on flop, just get the money in ASAP?

[friedace]

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Man, I'm just not in agreement with this at all. Perhaps I need help here, but we're not in that great of shape here.

Against a set, our equity is in the low 40s.

Against 2 pair, our equity is in the low 50s. If his 2 pair includes the Jd, we're actually a slight dog.

Against something like AJ, we're in teh mid 50s again; however, I think it's less likely that someone gets all in with a tp hand, then a bigger hand. If his hand is a tp hand with a larger diamond, like AdJ, we're actually just a hair of a favorite as well.

It's always hard to do these, but even with a range like this (I'm sure adjustments could be made, but my point remains), I think this could be razor thin and just lend itself to more variance.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

72,270 games 0.015 secs 4,818,000 games/sec

Board: 5d 6d Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.239% 50.24% 00.00% 36308 0.00 { 8d7d }
Hand 1: 49.761% 49.76% 00.00% 35962 0.00 { JJ, 66-55, AJs, KJs, QJs, J6s-J5s, 65s, AdJs, KJo, QJo, JTo, J6o-J5o, 65o }

If we could get all in first and get some FE, perhaps this makes more sense to me...idk.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

We're getting a bit over 3:2 on the call, so even if we're 40%, it's break even. If we're 40% or better against his range it is +EV. And against the range you propose, we're a coinflip, so calling is +EV.

Thoughts?

[MarcusT]

Let's say we're going to throw a coin for $10. I put my $10 first, how much are you willing to put?

Since you win chance is 50% you can put up to $10 to profit. IOW the right math you should do is 45% of a $21,30 pot, which is about $9,60, so you can call $8 with a profit.

[Jay2u]

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...I'm saying we probably half about 45% equity in a $13.30 pot, which is about $6 worth...we're putting in over $8 for this.
...

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I'm not sure, but I thought the needed equity should be measured against the total potsize after calling: 8.05/21.35 = 37.4%, which makes it a call.

Am I wrong?

J

[bottomset]

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I'm not sure if you can treat NL this way or not; however, the way I'm used to looking at it is this way. The way this hand went down against anyone with half a brain, I'm saying we probably half about 45% equity in a $13.30 pot, which is about $6 worth...we're putting in over $8 for this.

Help me if I'm misapplying limit concepts to this game please.

[/ QUOTE ]

uh the pot is 21something, 45% of that is ~10

[QTip]

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[ QUOTE ]
...I'm saying we probably half about 45% equity in a $13.30 pot, which is about $6 worth...we're putting in over $8 for this.
...

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure, but I thought the needed equity should be measured against the total potsize after calling: 8.05/21.35 = 37.4%, which makes it a call.

Am I wrong?

J

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm confused on the other end. I thought the time to look at the pot size in terms of equity was at decision time. When it's to me, the pot is $13.30. If I have ~45% equity, I own ~$6 of that pot.

Looking at it after my $8 is in the middle makes no sense to me. If I'm wrong, would someone please explain why I would include my $8 in this decision.

As to the coinflip example, if someone put in $10 and said how much will I wager, this is all based on the type of person I am. If I don't feel like watching my money bounce up and down for a couple pennies here and there, I won't even consider putting $9.50 in.

[bottomset]

you are calling 8 to win 13

you only need to win 8/(8+13) % of the time

1/1.6 so breakeven is at 1/2.6

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
you are calling 8 to win 13

you only need to win 8/(8+13) % of the time

1/1.6 so breakeven is at 1/2.6

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah yeah..I always get the x:x and x/x mixed up.

Here's a point I'd like to make here though. At the beginning of this flop, if this is a good player, we really shouldn't be raising hoping to get all in on the flop. Someone in this thread seemed to imply the raise was in hopes he would push, and I'm saying I think that's a bad idea a lot of the time.

However, when we get $2 more in, the call easier.

Thoughts there?

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
...I'm saying we probably half about 45% equity in a $13.30 pot, which is about $6 worth...we're putting in over $8 for this.
...

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure, but I thought the needed equity should be measured against the total potsize after calling: 8.05/21.35 = 37.4%, which makes it a call.

Am I wrong?

J

[/ QUOTE ]

Turms out you're right. So, calling his all-in raise will profit us about 9bb over the long haul.

What I'd like to discuss tho is our thought process with the initial flop raise.

OP, why did you raise and why did you chose the amount you did?

[QTip]

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uh, you can't ask for anything better! nh! you should get this in with 200 bb stacks as well. you are only down to a larger FD, and you have huge outs against sets/2p

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I respectively disagree with this as well. Getting 200 bb in with this hand against any player but a crazy one I think would be a pretty decent sized mistake imo. The larger our stacks get, the more closer this bet gets to a 50/50, and the lower our equity most likely becomes.

[MarcusT]

[ QUOTE ]
As to the coinflip example, if someone put in $10 and said how much will I wager, this is all based on the type of person I am. If I don't feel like watching my money bounce up and down for a couple pennies here and there, I won't even consider putting $9.50 in.

[/ QUOTE ]
You should never think this way. You must take any chance you have when you're ahead.

Are you familiar with rollete? You must have heard the house always win. And it always win solely for the reason there are 37 numbers and they pay 35 to 1 when you win, and it should be 36 to 1. This slight difference make them winners and the gamblers losers.