AJo flop MP and BDFD (nut flush). Raise for a free card?

TJO · #1 03-04-2007, 06:23 PM

SB is ~50/10/0.50 about 25 hands
BB is unknown.

UltimateBet 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (7 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 4 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero????.

Should I raise to try to get a free card?

(and how do I get a converter to work with UB HHs?)

fretelöo · #2 03-04-2007, 06:30 PM

If there's some chance that SB will fold to the raise and/or you'd get a free card on the turn, then, yes,I'd raise here.

nerdking · #3 03-04-2007, 06:32 PM

raise to see where you are. villain could very easily have the K or QTos here. if 3bet, then worry

Watkins · #4 03-04-2007, 08:06 PM

** grunch **

You don't know for certain that this guy has the K (although I would imagine from your post that you found out he did). If you are behind to the K then you've got ~5 outs however these need to be discounted for the FD, possible set etc.

His range from the BB could be quite wide so the question is what does he donk this board with and what does he try to c/r a c-bet with? This is something I've been struggling with myself, at my limits I've seen lots of flop donks with less than TP so my inclination would be to raise.

However, if this is often TP then a call is probably better.

00Snitch · #5 03-04-2007, 09:26 PM

Wow, I can't work this out. Here are my random thoughts.

I have a feeling that SB will call any number of bets or fold to any number of bets. He will either be drawing to a big hand, so call any number of bets, or have some trash that he will fold for one bet.

BB can be betting lots of draws. Top pair, or any of the three two-pair hands.

You have the odds to draw against top pair and two pair.

I don't think I want to raise because it will leave you vulnerable to calling a 3-bet from a two pair or sometimes top pair and even a draw.

This pot isn't that big, so I don't mind if SB draws.

This pot isn't that big, so I think I can get away if I don't improve on the turn.

I think I just call here then go for an extra bet if I hit the turn.

I think if the pot was bigger (say 10 bets), I would be more inclined to raise.

Point Blank · #6 03-04-2007, 09:36 PM

raising for a free card probably sucks on this flop ... two flush a super connected (all in the playing zone) ... raising only opens you up to a 3bet (and if you can't fold to a 3bet or a turn donk, then it's even more of a bad move ... also, there are some many hands that will take a shot at you on this board, many a solid draws and many are killing you ... having a BDFD isn't enough here to raise here, call because you think you have some hope of being ahead - or just fold, as you'll be paying 5bets for 11bets)

TJO · #7 03-04-2007, 09:57 PM

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero raises, 4 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6SB, 3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero calls, SB folds.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4BB, 2 players)
BB bets, Hero ????

So hero folds here?

Point Blank · #8 03-04-2007, 10:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero raises, 4 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6SB, 3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero calls, SB folds.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4BB, 2 players)
BB bets, Hero ????

So hero folds here?

[/ QUOTE ]

why would you call the flop only to fold to a turn blank?

if you are calling the flop it is because there is a chance that you are ahead but do not want to invest too much to learn this ...

TJO · #9 03-04-2007, 10:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
why would you call the flop only to fold to a turn blank?

if you are calling the flop it is because there is a chance that you are ahead but do not want to invest too much to learn this ...

[/ QUOTE ]I had enough outs to call the flop even if I was behind TP. But now I don't have the outs to call anymore.

My outs are not necessarily clean because I might be drawing dead against a straight. So let's say I have about 4 outs, although that might be too generous. So I'll win 4/46 = 8.7% of the time if I'm behind. So I'll have to be ahead 50% - 8.7% = 41.3% of the time on the turn to make calling down profitable.

So am I ahead on the turn more than ~40% of the time? Against a passive opponent like this I doubt it. There's also more Kx than Jx combinations out there. So I think I should fold here.

00Snitch · #10 03-04-2007, 11:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]

if you are calling the flop it is because there is a chance that you are ahead but do not want to invest too much to learn this

[/ QUOTE ]

What's wrong with calling the flop because you have the odds to draw?

Turn is an easy fold now. I like the way this hand was played.

[ QUOTE ]

raise to see where you are

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, before someone else says it, this is rarely a good reason to raise. You will end up paying off better hands and having worse hands fold. i.e. in this case BB may fold a weak king, but raise a two pair or top pair.

Hey, when did I become a veteran? 1200 posts?