100NL Flop Top Set, Puke Turn

O0Brian0O · #1 08-07-2007, 10:59 AM

Villian is 28/19/1.86 over 500 hands. No good reads yet.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($105.35)
BB ($88.20)
UTG ($112.10)
UTG+1 ($153.70)
MP1 :#A500AF(Villian)/ ($163.85)
MP2 ($69.15)
MP3 ($98.50)
CO ($56.50)
Button ($52.65)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 :#A500AF(Villian)/ raises to $3, 4 folds, Hero calls $2.50, 1 fold.

Flop: ($7) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $5.5, Villian calls $5.50.

Turn: ($18) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Villian bets $155.35 (All-In), Hero hates life

I know this can be a bluff, or even a lot of things we beat like 2 pair or over pairs, A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J maybe, I dunno. But he could be doing this with the flush, but it jsut seems like a strange line for that. Thoughts?

No Fizzle · #2 08-07-2007, 11:10 AM

Wow, that is a horrible play by villain. Just awful. If he's trying to bluff you out a much smaller bet would have sufficed, and if he hit his flush he's going to want to try and reel you in not scare you off.

You played the hand fine, up until the turn. Sure, the spade is a minor scare card, but there is no reason not to fire again at the pot. Because you didn't, it's hard to tell if villain is that strong or if he's trying to scare you off.

I wouldn't call, I'm sure some would here. I'd be interested in hearing what others thought?

da_fume · #3 08-07-2007, 11:43 AM

I'd prob say "[censored] it" and call, you have outs at least and are probably actually winning.

sakrei · #4 08-07-2007, 11:56 AM

call, and ship it, maybe board will pair on river

paperboyNC · #5 08-07-2007, 12:00 PM

I'm weak so I fold. I think he has the nut flush way too often to make calling profitable even though we have outs, the pot hardly justifies the 3.4 - 1 dog we are against a made flush.

Those saying that you should have bet the turn are silly. If you knew he'd go all-in if checked to, you should check every time here.

No Fizzle · #6 08-07-2007, 12:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm weak so I fold. I think he has the nut flush way too often to make calling profitable even though we have outs, the pot hardly justifies the 3.4 - 1 dog we are against a made flush.

Those saying that you should have bet the turn are silly. If you knew he'd go all-in if checked to, you should check every time here.

[/ QUOTE ]

He didn't have any reads on villain. No way to see that coming. Also, if he isn't going to call, why would he want villain all in?

paperboyNC · #7 08-08-2007, 02:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
He didn't have any reads on villain. No way to see that coming. Also, if he isn't going to call, why would he want villain all in?

[/ QUOTE ]

What I'm saying is that a check/fold is likely far better than a bet/fold because:

A) If a bet makes him more likely to have you beat, it also makes you more pot-committed since you have a lot of outs.

B) If you're going to fold to a push after betting, your opponent is more likely to be bluffing because bluffing is more profitable into a bigger pot and hence folding is even worse.

Most decent players do not bluff $96 to win $18 (bluff needs to succeed 84%, 81% if semi-bluffing , they may however - if they were going to call with a flush draw - bluff $78 to win $54 (bluff needs to succeed 59%, only 50% if semi-bluffing)

EDIT to add, even though the turn bet is $155, it's really just under $100 because Hero started with $105 and has around $96 left.

Kos13 · #8 08-08-2007, 02:31 AM

Why did you check the turn?

I call. If he's dumb enough to waste his flush with this ridiculous overbet, I'll pay him off.

SABR42 · #9 08-08-2007, 02:46 AM

Wow you guys suck, no offense.

This is not even close to a call.

Albert Moulton · #10 08-08-2007, 02:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Why did you check the turn?

I call. If he's dumb enough to waste his flush with this ridiculous overbet, I'll pay him off.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's dumb enough to waste his flush with this ridiculous overbet, then we shouldn't pay him off.

If he's dumb enought to overbet bluff like this, then we can wait until we have the big hand that he's representing and hang him later.

Right now, given the amount in the pot and the fact that we could be a 4:1 dog to a flush already, I think folding is better than calling. I suppose his range is any suited connector or semi-connector flush, AsXx flush draw. He might also have JJ or a lower set, as well, and played it strangely, but that seems less likely than a flush or a flush draw. I guess he might be overplaying JT, as well.

I think if he does this regularly with less than a flush then it's only a matter of time before we get his entire stack for the price of giving up a few small pots like this one while we wait to trap him.

It's such a small pot and such a large bet that I think it's ok to fold.