Should I be shoving this turn in a RR pot? [nl10]

[larry31]

Hey, I played this hand earlier in which I check folded the turn but I have been thinking about it alot and think the best play would have been to push.

What do you think?

The villain has only played 5 hands at the table so no reads

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $15.55
UTG: $8.50
CO: $10.35
BTN: $10.10
Hero (SB): $10.15

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
2 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $0.30</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.10</font>, BB folds, BTN calls $0.80

Flop: ($2.30) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $1.60</font>, BTN calls $1.60

Turn: ($5.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)

I did a quick equity calculation on what i thought his range of hands might be, it might be abit loose? But I find at this level my 3bets don't get to much respect.

Board: 5h Tc Qh 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.799% 39.34% 04.46% 1402 159.00 { AhKs }
Hand 1: 56.201% 51.74% 04.46% 1844 159.00 { 55+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }

[larry31]

bump

[Ricky_Bobby]

Pushing is kinda strange because you reraised pre and two draws came in on the turn, neither one of which make a lot of sense for your hand. I doubt villain folds a queen, but if he was just floating you with air or getting stubborn with 99 it probably works.

I don't think you can fold as you have as many as 17 outs, although you could have as few as 7, not to mention you could be winning against a hand like KJ or AJ or freerolling another AK.



If we eliminate folding as an option that leaves you with

1. Betting about $3.5-4 and calling a raise
2. Checking and calling if he pushes or check raising over any bet he makes that is less than a push.
3. Shoving.

Option 1- the bet has close to the same fold equity as a shove since villian will probably realize the implication of your bet and fold total air or pocket pairs. If he comes over the top you're priced in so just call and hope to get lucky. The other benefit is if he calls and you totally whiff the river, you save a little bit.

Option 2: You won't have any fold equity here, but you get more money when he follows through on a float or semibluffs KJ or the like. You might end up calling an all in and winning unimproved, but in any case you have outs.

Option 3: Shoving might maximize fold equity but villian probably isn't gonna let go of top pair. A shove screams 'please fold' so he is likely to look you up with any real hand and fold the kind of hands that you're actually ahead of. If you consider what hand you're repping (AA,KK,QQ) it will look odd from the villian's perspective that you would want to push those when a dangerous card hits the turn.

I think it's a toss up between bet/call or check/call/CRAI.

I guess I would bet/call because I'd like to have some FE if he has a stubborn 99/AT, and I want to discourage people from floating against me.

[creamfillin]

I think we have to check here. An OESD &amp; a FD could have came in on the turn. I c/f or c/c if he gives me odds. I don't see the average 10NL'er folding anything to a second barrel here.