&&& Thu Nite CFB Kentucky @ South Carolina Thread &&&

[alydom]

Do you think they have enough fire power for a blowout?
I believe they are the better team...and will win....but concerned about scoring enough points.

[calmB4storm]

I'm riding South Carolina on the money line at -160.
Pure value play (Pinny currently has a -175 no vig line).

[Gordon Scott]

I few beginner Observations;

Both teams are on equally short rest so the deeper team gets a greater than normal advantage in the 4th quarter. I look for the gamecocks to score at will late if they happen to get behind and if there is one thing we know for sure it’s that Steve will flat lay the wood to KY if given even half a chance.

The KY QB looked great against the lame Hogs weak d secondary but they made Bama’s John Parker Wilson look like an All American.

I think the gamecocks hold KY under 30 for the first time this year and we’re looking at maybe 38-28.

SC -3.5 2 units

GS

[mmbt0ne]

[ QUOTE ]
SC...big win @ Georgia...and doesn't get blown out @ LSU.

[/ QUOTE ]

But who has UGA beaten? A team that lost to Troy, an over-rated Alabama, and two doormats.

And SC did get blown out by LSU until garbage time points.

- Devil's Advocate

[MyTurn2Raise]

my indexes have this game at 4, 1.5, 3.5, 2.5
but my preseason index had it 12

I'm not betting it. If I did, I'd go with the [censored].

Wonder how S Car's defense will be missing two starters now.


I'm excited to watch. Maybe, a halftime will perk my interest

[Austiger]

Adding Kentucky ML +169 to win 1 unit. I really don't see Kentucky going down in flames tonight like I have heard some people suggest. It's hard to discount their Louisville and Arkansas wins despite what those teams have done in other games. (Maybe I have too much respect for Arkansas since they always give Auburn trouble.) I think Kentucky wins 2 times out of 5.

[iggymcfly]

I was really high on South Carolina going into the year, but I think the loss of Jasper Brinkley is being underaccounted for here. Rush defense was somewhat of a weakness for S. Carolina going into the year, and he was the top tackler that kind of held the linebacking corps together. I think SC will really miss him, especially against running teams like Kentucky. I'm not sure if I'll bet this yet, but it does seem like 4 to 4.5 points is a little bit high, and I'd lean toward Kentucky for sure.

[NajdorfDefense]

DrBob leans SC -3.5, thus line is now 4.5

[alydom]

Scotty Nyguen says, "you bet South Carolina and it's all over baby!"

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
DrBob leans SC -3.5, thus line is now 4.5

[/ QUOTE ]

DrBob had SoMiss winning by 30 last nite. Oops.

2 Star Selection
**SOUTHERN MISS (-20.5) 43 Rice 13
05:00 PM Pacific, 03-Oct-07

Southern Miss was embarrassed on national TV last Thursday night in Boise, but I doubt head coach Jeff Bower will let that happen again. Bower has been the head coach at Southern Miss for 17 years and his teams are 30-8-1 ATS in the next game after losing by 10 points or more, including 12-1 ATS recently and 5-0 ATS as a home favorite of 14 points or more. Bower’s teams are also 8-2 ATS in all games as a home favorite of 18 points or more with the two spread losses coming by a combined 3 points. The Eagles will be without starting quarterback Jeremy Young for a few weeks and backup Stephen Reaves was hurt in practice this week so red-shirt freshman Martevious Young will get his first action. M-Young out played Stephen Reaves in the off-season and was 10 of 13 passing for 155 yards in the final scrimmage before the season started, so he’s probably no worse than Reaves would have been. Reaves rates at 0.7 yppp worse than average over his career, going back to his days at Michigan State, and I’ll assume Martevious Young will be about the same although some local sources think Young will be better than Reaves would have been. The Rice defense is horrible (6.9 yards per play allowed to teams that would average only 5.0 yppl against an average defensive team) so Young should have a good outing and star running back Damion Fletcher (387 yards in 4 games at 5.0 ypr) will get the ball a lot against a sub-par Rice defensive front. The Owls are not nearly as good offensively this season under first year coach David Bailiff as they were last season under innovative coach Todd Graham, as Rice has managed just 4.1 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack). Southern Miss was not good defensively last week in Boise and they rate at 0.4 yppl worse than average for the season, but the Eagles should be able to handle the Rice attack. My math model would have favored the Eagles by 27 ½ points with starter Jeremy Young at quarterback and the math still favors Southern Miss by 23 ½ points with Martevious Young at quarterback based on conservative assumptions. The Eagles apply to a very good 53-15-2 ATS big home favorite bounce-back situation tonight in addition to their good team trends under Bower. I’ll take Southern Miss in a 2-Star Best Bet at -23 points or less.