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#21
09-04-2007, 12:06 AM
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Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
a negative red line from a very aggressive player probably means you semibluff a LOT. which also explains a green line above the others. you win pots w/o showdown all the time from fold equity, and the few times you get called, you have the worst of it.
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#22
09-04-2007, 12:06 AM
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Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
[ QUOTE ]
by the way, the term sucked out on is not correct, a lot of those "skalanky bucks" come from winning a few coinflips AI preflop like AK/JJ where I have technically 900ish in equity at 5/10 if I get it in, so I have 900 bucks if I lose and -1100 if I win [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Win or loss on a coinflip has no effect on the "sklansky bucks" (red line), only on the blue (and in turn, the green) In fact, 52/48 flips AIPF etc will barely cause a blip on the red line, but can have dramatic effects on the other two - I presume from the, you have run very well recently in such situations, resulting in the large divergence between red/blue. Still, much more interesting is how you can play so hard as to get the green way above the others... nits like me can never produce graphs like that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] dave.
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#24
09-04-2007, 12:09 AM
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Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
[ QUOTE ]
more graphs please! [/ QUOTE ]
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#26
09-04-2007, 12:22 AM
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Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
[ QUOTE ]
So Carrot is running ~15K below expectation when all in - yet turns a serious profit due winning without showdown... I'd love to learn how to do that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I am rather confused. Carrot's showdown equity is about -10k, and yet his showdown winnings are +5k. Doesn't this mean that he has run +15k ABOVE expectations? Clearly the fact that this equity is negative and yet his actual winnings are well above 0 (even if you subtract the 15k from his excessive sucking out) suggests that he wins a lot of money by getting other folks to fold the best hand and as a consequence when he does get called he has the worst of it more often than not.
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#27
09-04-2007, 12:22 AM
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Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
[ QUOTE ]
by the way, the term sucked out on is not correct, a lot of those "skalanky bucks" come from winning a few coinflips AI preflop like AK/JJ where I have technically 900ish in equity at 5/10 if I get it in, so I have 900 bucks if I lose and -1100 if I win [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, had not considered that. Definitely poor phrasing on my part. Just running above expectation, but far enough above to make me jealous and still want to call it sucking out! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
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#28
09-04-2007, 12:22 AM
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Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
dave,
from my current understanding, there is no reason for the green line to ever go below the red line, in the long run. if over a reasonable sample your green line is lower, it means your VPIP is too high, or you are playing mediocre weak hands poorly. very strong postflop players should be able to have a higher VPIP and show a profit. This theory fits why lots of strong MSNL posters have such high green lines.
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#29
09-04-2007, 12:24 AM
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Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
[ QUOTE ]
dave, from my current understanding, there is no reason for the green line to ever go below the red line, in the long run. if over a reasonable sample your green line is lower, it means your VPIP is too high, or you are playing mediocre weak hands poorly. very strong postflop players should be able to have a higher VPIP and show a profit. This theory fits why lots of strong MSNL posters have such high green lines. [/ QUOTE ] At MSNL people can fold, and also generally play much more aggressively forcing you to fold more often. At SSNL people fold less often and they're much more passive in general meaning you're going to showdown way more often so your green is going to be much closer to your blue.
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#30
09-04-2007, 12:28 AM
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Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
some of this red line stuff makes a lot of sense to me.
my HU graph from the month the red line is barely positive over 6k hands even though i'm up 13 buyins [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] also think i'm running well cause the blue line is significantly higher than the red.
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