Pirateboy's NCAAF Conquest

pirateboy · #1 11-14-2006, 02:06 PM

Found some lines that feel too good, so hopefully I don't crash and burn. All for 1 unit, YTD: 91-78 +27 units

UTEP (+2.5) @ Marshall
--I like Marshall, but UTEP seems to be the better team. The two have comparable stats, but UTEP has a slight margin on offense. UTEP is going to take advantage of Marshall's terrible coverage put up some points. Marshall wins games by running the ball, and they'll have some success. However, Marshall turns the ball over far more than the Miners do, and I think that swings this game.

Utah (-1) @ Air Force
--1 point? Air Force has played 2 good games this season, and they were in September. I said I'd never bet on Utah in 2006 again, but this seems juicy to me. Utah plays the run rather well, and while Air Force will STILL run the ball 0978908 times, Utah will be able to run on USAFA and throw some too. Utah has a better offense and a better defense, plus, USAFA has only covered once at home. I see Utah 26-20 at worst (for us, I mean [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]).

Virginia Tech (-1.5) @ Wake Forest
--Am I crazy for STILL not believing in the Deacons? I just can't. I have huge faith in them as big dogs, but I realllllllllllly think VT could blow the doors off. VT's offense is just a hair better than Wake's O, but VT's defense outclasses WF's by a ton. Neither team will generate a lot of rushing attack, so passing games could decide this one. With VT only allowing 127 yards per game in the air, combined with Wake's reliance on the run game (153 rypg compared to 141 pypg), I see VT winning this game in the area of 21-13 ... or more!

Connecticut (+2) @ Syracuse
--Loved it when I clicked it, feel worse now. I think I may have gotten a better line later this week, but I think UConn wins this outright enough for value. Syracuse's run defense is awful, and UConn has a nice run attack. While the Huskies also can't stop the run, the Orangemen don't run it very well anyway. Connecticut's offense outgains Syracuse's offense by almost 80 yards a game, and their defense holds opponents to almost 85 yards less per game than Syracuse. That's 165 yards that Connecticut is better. I know never to base a play just on this, but Connecticut has to be feeling confident after last week's come from behind victory. I don't think they have a letdown and win outright in Syracuse 27-17.

Central Michigan (-3.5) @ N. Illinois
--Wanted a better linem but went ahead and took this one. CMU is the class of the MAC this season, and NIU looks worse and worse and worse. While the stats say Wolfe will have a good game, just remember that Toledo's rush defense is about 20 yards WORSE than CMU's on average, so I think NIU may have trouble running the ball this week. CMU is going to air it out all day and rack up tons of yards in the air. CMU has a better O and D than NIU, and with momentum heavily in CMU's favor, I like them to win 30-20.

pirateboy · #2 11-15-2006, 07:57 PM

Ugh, hadn't updated my print sheet of the OVER/UNDERS.

Freaking loved M(OH)/BG U48, then I went to place it and it was 44. UGHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

pirateboy · #3 11-15-2006, 10:15 PM

Added for 1 unit:

Miami (OH) @ Bowling Green U14 2ndHalf

Thought about not doing this because 14 is the weird number here.

If I had DONE MY RESEARCH, I would have bet the game under of 44, as well.

vanwely · #4 11-16-2006, 02:04 PM

This is a very interesting lesson. Many times I have liked one side of a game, but by the time I logged on to bet, the line has moved a point one way or the other and I feel I am not getting the deal I was before. I either cut down my bet or pass. Then, the team goes on to beat that line buy 20 points.

pirateboy · #5 11-17-2006, 10:20 AM

Added last night before I started drinking:

West Virginia (-11) @ Pittsburgh

pirateboy · #6 11-17-2006, 01:04 PM

Added for 1 unit:

Nevada (-18.5) @ Louisiana Tech
--Liked it at -20, but waited. Saw this, thought it was a gift. Now, it's at -17.5? Confused. Nevada *could* be looking ahead to Boise, but La Tech is really really really realllllllllly awful.

Thoughts on the line move?

pirateboy · #7 11-17-2006, 01:50 PM

Added for 1 unit:

Michigan (-7) -107 @ Ohio State

knicknut · #8 11-17-2006, 02:16 PM

You want Michigan -7? I'll take the other side of that. No vig! I'll do up to $5k. Let me know [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

pirateboy · #9 11-17-2006, 03:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You want Michigan -7? I'll take the other side of that. No vig! I'll do up to $5k. Let me know [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Doh! I knew I did something wrong.

Michigan (+7) -107 @ Ohio State

sshan83 · #10 11-18-2006, 11:36 AM

I did an injury research and only a DE from Nevada is injured. It seems that the public likes riding big underdogs on teams from non-major conferences? Last week, the Hawaii line went down from 40 to 37 when they played La Tech. I think the line shift is just an indication of the public giving no respect to a good Nevada team and just fading a big favrite.