Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6

[Big_Jim]

I'm still pretty curious about lines on various turns:
a) K/Q
b) Club
c) Board pairing club
d) 8

I think case a is the most interesting.

Also, any more thoughts about my 3bet size? I don't like it much, in retrospect.

[PerDoom]

I do like this, although you are mostly trying to fold out air which I'd assume a reasonable tag is going to bluff this donk bet a huge % of the times. I do disagree though with other people that are saying we are trying to fold out some medium strength one pair hand since I think those hands raise that donk bet very rarely.

[Renixe]

depending on how long he takes to call the flop 3bet, i might be inclined to shove all 4.

given your description that he is regular tag, his range probably consists of AJ/overpair at least 50% and a set the rest of the time. obviously he's not folding a set, but he will definitely have a tough time putting you on a hand he can beat with an overpair on the turn if you shove.

i think if you raise more on the flop and he calls he will feel more committed to the hand making a turn shove less effective since it will less than a PSB. if he calls 255, he probably calls 333.

[True]

[ QUOTE ]
depending on how long he takes to call the flop 3bet, i might be inclined to shove all 4.

given your description that he is regular tag, his range probably consists of AJ/overpair at least 50% and a set the rest of the time. obviously he's not folding a set, but he will definitely have a tough time putting you on a hand he can beat with an overpair on the turn if you shove.

i think if you raise more on the flop and he calls he will feel more committed to the hand making a turn shove less effective since it will less than a PSB. if he calls 255, he probably calls 333.

[/ QUOTE ]

if he folds AJ / overpairs, thats 20 combos vs 9, making a shove fine without improvement.

[Renixe]

i'm not saying he's going to be folding all the time. i say, some of the time he folds those hands and i think it will probably be +ev if you improve your hand and shove and he folds some of the time.

[aejones]

Jim don't listen to the haters this is fine, I approve is and I'm aejones.

[LiLApprentice]

Nice and aggressive, what was the action that followed?

[BobboFitos]

wow this is ballsy

i dont donk enough into pfrs i guess.

i think he's raise folding air, which is nice, like ace high etc. standard play with Jx or similar is to call. clearly if you ran into a set he's never going away, but he may just call, which would rock if you hit the nuts.

it really depends on:
1. his aggression (how often is his flop raise air?)
2. his line with strong one pairs (QJ through AA), if he's raise/folding, this is GOLDEN. if he's raise/calling, this is baaaad. if he's never raising these, it's irrelevant.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
Better hope he doesnt know about the Yeti Theorem (though I think that applies more when you 3-bet and have position on a dry board). This is going to get looked up an awful lot though.

[/ QUOTE ]

not if pfr has air, which they do alot on this board. i mean, who the eff 4bets air here? cts, because he owns everyone, but thats it.

[BobboFitos]

your line is correct on any improvement: nuts, push. club, push. oesd, push. blank, check fold. board pairs, check fold. pair up, hmmmmmmmm.