136913691369's 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system

[136913691369]

plays for 10/20/07

chi/tor o1.5 -105
nyr/bos o1.5 +100
ana/dal o1.5 +115
edm/cal o1.5 +105 2 units
nsh/sjs o1.5 +105 2 units

Starting today, I will now be filtering out some plays based soley on the two teams previous over/under 1.5 %s from the 06-07 season as well as the current season.

i.e. det/phx o1.5 +100 would have normally been a play, but their combined over % from the specified time period is ~48.7% so I filtered it because we need 50% to break even on this bet.

The 2 unit plays indicate a difference of more then 20c off the combined over/under %'s in our favor.

i.e. nsh/sjs o1.5 +105. Thier combined over % is ~54.6% (-120 breakeven) so it more then 20c in our favor.

[Mediocre_Player]

136: Are you still exploring the Poisson averaging method or was that idea junked last season?

[136913691369]

I still perform the Poisson distribution on a few of the 1st periods, but really just for my own amusement. I don't consider the results in making my plays for the 1st period. I do however use poisson when betting totals for the full game because I feel it is more accurate when considering the whole game and not just a specific period.

[136913691369]

added for 10/20/07

buf/mon o1.5 -105

[136913691369]

[ QUOTE ]


plays for 10/20/07

chi/tor o1.5 -105 WIN
nyr/bos o1.5 +100 LOSE
ana/dal o1.5 +115 LOSE
edm/cal o1.5 +105 2 units WIN
nsh/sjs o1.5 +105 2 units LOSE
buf/mon o1.5 -105 LOSE

[/ QUOTE ]

2-4 -1.95 units

07-08 totals 32-34 +0.21 units

system has reached the 500 game mark...

249-251 +34.76 units

avg. line took was ~+115

W/L record is pretty damn close to the 50% I predicted I would be at before I even started the system. Always a good feeling when the results go along with what you think should happen.

[136913691369]

plays for 10/21/07

van/cbj o1.5 +115
col/min o1.5 +105

[136913691369]

[ QUOTE ]
plays for 10/21/07

van/cbj o1.5 +115 WIN
col/min o1.5 +105 LOSE

[/ QUOTE ]

1-1 +.15 units

07-08 totals 33-35 +0.36 units

[136913691369]

plays for 10/22/07

*van/car o1.5 +105
*bos/mtl o1.5 +104 2 units
sjs/cal o1.5 +110 2 units

edit: just for my own personal records, I was able to bet bos/mtl o1.5 +100 for 1.5 units. The official play is still bos/mtl o1.5 +104 for 2 units.

[CrushinFelt]

These have to be correlated with total o/u don't they? I would think they would have to be.

[136913691369]

ofcourse they are. In fact, I was thinking along those lines when for example the total is over 5 -110 and the over 1.5 for the 1st period is +105 if it would be better to just take the total for the full game. Not sure if the extra juice would make it -ev though.