River aboslute nuts, check? (NL100)

CalledDownLight · #1 10-04-2007, 03:14 PM

Ok, I have no reads, but he's got to have an ace, 2 pair, or a set here all the time right? The thing is, if he has the Kd or Qd he is basically always going to bet if checked to and obviously will call a shove. However, if I shove what other hands could he have that he'll now call with? I really can't see many. Do we think there is enough of a chance that he'll bluff at the pot to make it worth checking here? If you think shove is better then explain what you're getting called with besides the Qd and Kd.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($18.50)
UTG+1 ($109.20)
MP1 ($52.90)
MP2 ($178.70)
MP3 ($97.50)
CO ($80.40)
Button ($98)
SB ($78.20)
Hero ($112.05)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP3 raises to $3, 3 folds, Hero calls $2.

Flop: ($6.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $5, Hero raises to $17.5, MP3 calls $12.50.

Turn: ($41.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $29, MP3 calls $29.

River: ($99.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero ???

ClubChamp04 · #2 10-04-2007, 03:30 PM

Nvm, Misread your flush. I shove this in and hope to get called by whatever. He obviously likes his hand and has shown no aggression so there is no reason to believe he will bluff the river.

CalledDownLight · #3 10-04-2007, 03:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He def doesn't have to have 2 pair or a set here most of the time. A lot of the time this will be AQ-AJ-A10 and maybe even AK. I don't like a shove here at all b/c I think he will look you up with the Q/J and maybe the ten and fold all of his two pair hands.

This would be a good spot for a blocking bet but any bet commits you to this pot so idk. I would probably have to check this to him and hope he plays nice.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think I get looked up by a J and maybe a 10 then this is definitely a spot for a shove. I really don't know that I will though. I think he never calls without at least the J and usually folds that imo. I have a straight flush!!!

Mike Kelley · #4 10-04-2007, 03:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He def doesn't have to have 2 pair or a set here most of the time. A lot of the time this will be AQ-AJ-A10 and maybe even AK. I don't like a shove here at all b/c I think he will look you up with the Q/J and maybe the ten and fold all of his two pair hands.

This would be a good spot for a blocking bet but any bet commits you to this pot so idk. I would probably have to check this to him and hope he plays nice.

[/ QUOTE ]

ROFL. We has a straight flush.

rdrr · #5 10-04-2007, 03:36 PM

You're giving these people too much credit [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img], people make retarded calls all the time. Just shove, they'll call with Td+ so much more often than they will bet with them if checked to.

Chargers In 07 · #6 10-04-2007, 03:44 PM

Chances are he has showdown value so if you check he bets his AxKd/QdJd type hands and checks behind the rest of his range that has showdown value. Pretty bad spot to check because the hands he folds are the hands he checks behind and the hands he bets are calling a push anyways.

TheProdigy · #7 10-04-2007, 03:45 PM

Bet.

If he has the two pair type hands he still calls sometimes. Bet low, because you get value out of hands like two pair and sets that fold to sizable bets while also getting raises from K,Q and if he is bad J if he reads you as weak.

Thing is you're not getting much value from anything except some random hands if you check. I would check behind sets and two pairs because I would have showdown value. only time I bet flush boards like this would be with nothing or with the nut flush. So if you check you get money from air which he rarely has and big flushes where you would've got value anyways cause he would raise the bet, whereas if you bet you get value from those random 2pr,sets because they will make the crying calls.

CalledDownLight · #8 10-04-2007, 03:54 PM

You guys think he really calls with 2 pair? My line looks like a set at worst. I c/r the flop pretty big and fired turn for 70% of pot. I really don't see 2 pair calling me down. I didn't have any good reads, but he didn't seem retarded through like 40-60 hands.

ActionStan · #9 10-04-2007, 03:54 PM

Shove it. If you have a particularly aggressive villain (doesn't seem like it) you could try the ol' weak lead and hope he shoves over the top. You just can't let it go check/check. You have to bet something.

ninjadanger · #10 10-04-2007, 04:05 PM

once villain called behind on the turn I'm all for leading on the river. villain's got like $50 behind with a hand they've shown serious interest in. AxKd seems the most likely. lead for $40 and hope he gets that last $10 in on his own accord. woot for 2 card straight flushes on 4 flush boards! booya bitches!