Prove me wrong about draws

[DLizzle]

I think a lot of you guys play draws WAYYY to aggressively these days. I've thought this for a long time, so I guess I should try to see if I'm wrong. Here's an aejones hand from BBV that, along with some other random hand I read today, bugged me.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...=0#Post12271607


Seems to me that a lot of people think this is standard. I think its really bad. Why you ask? I think his FE is close to 0, and I feel like his equity is terrible against his opponent's range. I mean, how about this pokerstove for jokes:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,070,190 games 0.042 secs 25,480,714 games/sec

Board: 3d 4d 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.943% 54.23% 00.71% 580402 7595.00 { Jd7d }
Hand 1: 45.057% 44.35% 00.71% 474598 7595.00 { random }


I'm really against doing the math, it will take forever for me and I'll prob screw it up. I'd like someone to come up with one or more 'opponent calling range'/'fold equity' combinations that would make aejones' play correct.

Also, please discuss the general play of draws, such as when it is correct to play them aggressively and when it is not. (type of opponent, stack sizes, board textures, etc.) Also discuss metagame effects.

This might seem ssnl worthy, but I don't think it is. MSNL games have changed and I don't think people have adjusted well with draws.

[JEFF or DAD]

its a horrible shove but im not particularly worried about aejones adjusting anytime soon, which is why i didnt feel bad posting the thread

[mustmuck]

I thought the push was basically burning money.

The rest of your post is a little broad, but I think aggro play with draws is mainly going to be a mix of FE and wanting to be looked up when we play a stronger made hand aggro. I realize that's kind of simplifying things, perhaps to the point of uselessness.

[Melchiades]

I think his push is brutal. Hero must be raising and folding an awful lot for it to be ok. And hero is not putting half his stack in with plans of folding to a push very often.

[d2themfi]

[ QUOTE ]
Also discuss metagame effects.



[/ QUOTE ]

I can't say whether this play is +EV in a vacuum because I really dont know either player's game or what history they have.

But i think that making these plays can be good if it is against a player who you will be playing a lot against in the future. SO maybe in a vacuum this play is bad(or maybe it isnt, idk) but I do know that NL is a game where you can make a -EV play that will make future plays way more +EV than they would have been if you had not made the previous play.

I hope I explained that clearly

[mustmuck]

[ QUOTE ]
But i think that making these plays can be good if it is against a player who you will be playing a lot against in the future.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with this. The reason I don't agree is that you get looked up almost 100% of the time here, and there's almost nothing you can do to change that. What I mean is that there's no point in doing this so that you get looked up when you have the goods, because you're getting looked up anyway. I agree that there are spots where what you're saying applies, I just don't think this is one of them.

[pp262]

If you two have history of bluffraising in 3bet pots than sure it's fine but in a vacuum it's not the greatest of plays. Hero only needs 26% equity vs aejones' range to make a call correct after raising which means he can probably call with any pair. I really doubt he turns a mid pair into a bluff here by raise-folding anyway.
I also don't find it too likely that he bluffraises here with a hand like JTss often enough to make a push with J7dd +EV.

[IHaveStrong9]

i think secretly, its just that flushes are fun to make and everyone wants to be the big man on campus and get everyone to lay down. come on people. admit it!!! throw away all your complicated logic and agree with my caveman like thinking

[aislephive]

I'd like aejones to prove is it +EV, but of course he can't/won't do it. Probably won't even try.

Yves is pretty [censored] solid and I would say he makes a raise this size with air about never. Certainly not anywhere near 25% or whatever somebody said he needs for it to be breakeven.

I'd also go as far as to say that yves isn't going to make this play with any worse bare flush draws. Maybe something like 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], but c'mon that's stretching it. yves can certainly raise all sorts of bigger flush draws like this, not to mention sets, overpairs, two pair, and the kind of hand he had with a pair and straight draw which in his defense he is a slight slight favorite against, but everything else has him murdered.

[DLizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
If you two have history of bluffraising in 3bet pots than sure it's fine but in a vacuum it's not the greatest of plays. Hero only needs 26% equity vs aejones' range to make a call correct after raising which means he can probably call with any pair. I really doubt he turns a mid pair into a bluff here by raise-folding anyway.
I also don't find it too likely that he bluffraises here with a hand like JTss often enough to make a push with J7dd +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

even if aejones thinks he's bluffing a lot of the time it's still no good. hero has to call with pretty much ATC. i'd like to hear ae justify this one. I'm pretty sure its just like, flop a draw, get it in, no thought. I think a lot of people are like that and I think it would benefit a lot of you to look at some hands where you spewed off buyins with draws.