Full house on 4 flush board vs tard

[Teh1337zor]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $2/$4 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

Hero (SB): $656.50
BB: $676.00
UTG: $798.20
MP: $135.30
CO: $580.40
BTN: $398.00

Reads: <font color="blue">My image is tagish but I really doubt he takes my image into account at all
do you like a c/r or a lead here, and what sizes on your choice</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $8.00</font>, MP folds, CO calls $8.00, BTN calls $8.00, Hero calls $6.00, BB calls $4.00

Flop: ($40) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, CO checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($40) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $27.00</font>, BB folds, UTG calls $27.00, 2 folds

River: ($94) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)


Pot Size: $1,337.00 ($3 Rake)

[Teh1337zor]

whoops he is 58/28/1.5

[AAismyfriend]

I'd just lead and hope he minraises. I think you lose a lot of value from weak flushes by checking here.

[FionnMac]

$75

[Jay Riall]

You want to bet an amount which is going to get max value from all his crappy flushes, but not soo much he isn't going to raise you with the Ad/Kd. I think $50 is best.

[13_Xerxes]

I just open shove, I hope he got Ad or Kd, cause he is a retard.

[Teh1337zor]

My logic for c/ring was as follows:

I put his range as Ad Kd draws that got there, made hands on the turn, and occasionally smaller flushes (I think hes bad but I dont think he would call a bet on the turn with the Jd)
I figure since he is passive he might flat a lead with his Ad or Kd, he will fold all his one/two pair hands, however if I check, he will always bet his Ad Kd hands and never fold to a raise and he will occasionally bluff his one/two pair hands (opposed to always folding to my lead.

thats why I c/r allin

[Teh1337zor]

are there any flaws in my logic/can we come up with a conclizzle?

[cgrohman]

I overbet the pot and go for the big score. A tard will pay off with a big flush and this bet size will make his raise essentially all in if he chooses to raise with Ad.

[Teh1337zor]

also Jay nice pm a while back just looked at it, stunning view , if thats you you should def go into modeling