$555 QQ - take it to value town?

[JSH06]

This is a tough hand but I think I'd make a really small bet here (around 300. I think we usually have the best hand but I don't think Villain's hand is strong enough to call a big bet here. By betting around 300 he'll be getting almost 5:1 on the river and will probably have a tough time folding.

It just doesn't make sense that he would have a hand that beats us here. AA or KK wouldn't play this way. You certainly would have seen a raise out of those hands by now. I think a set definitely would have raised the flop or turn because of the draw heavy board. I'm not even going to consider any straight or 2 pair as the chance is just so little against this nit with this board and I think he would have raised by now even if he did have one of those hands. He's probably not calling both the flop and turn with a flush draw. If he did and hit his flush, he would probably lead the river. If he hits the flush he's got to figure that's a scare card for you and has to fear that you'll check behind.

I'd say he most likely has TT or 99.

[Shillx]

Would you bet top set? I don't really see the difference between the two hands.

[Little John]

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Villain is 10/4/0 over 100 hands, that's all I know.


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Btw is this at lvl 1, 7-9 handed, or something else? What are a 2p2 clone's stats at these? I filter on lvl. I would think something like 11/8 is your standard solid 2p2 nit. So to me 10/4 already says something aint right with this guy's game. I think 100 hands is enough to guess that anyway.

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i searched my PT database and a lot of 2+2 nits play level 1 with 10/4 stats or very similiar. remember, completing from the sb adds to vpip. i did not find anyone good raising 8% of hands L1, although my search was limited to 7 or 8 players that i have a lot of hands against.

[darinvg]

I'm taking him to value town. Shoving seems best.

[suzzer99]

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Villain is 10/4/0 over 100 hands, that's all I know.


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Btw is this at lvl 1, 7-9 handed, or something else? What are a 2p2 clone's stats at these? I filter on lvl. I would think something like 11/8 is your standard solid 2p2 nit. So to me 10/4 already says something aint right with this guy's game. I think 100 hands is enough to guess that anyway.

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i searched my PT database and a lot of 2+2 nits play level 1 with 10/4 stats or very similiar. remember, completing from the sb adds to vpip. i did not find anyone good raising 8% of hands L1, although my search was limited to 7 or 8 players that i have a lot of hands against.

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Well after letting PO do it's ciperhing for 15 minutes, I guess I'm not that far off at lvl 1. So yeah, he could be a 2p2 clone. Which makes a set even more likely to me. I must be filtering on something else at the tables.

[reno expat]

TT, 99, 77 and maybe even 44 seem reasonable to me here (heavily weighted to TT and 99). I don't see how he shows up with a set or a flush based on how he played it. I like a small bet that he has a hard time folding to, something in the ballpark of 350.

[suzzer99]

A flush would also probably check this river to get value.

[wiggs73]

I think JSH made a fantastic reply.

Having said that, I'm still not convinced there's value in betting small hoping to get a call out of 99/TT and I'd check behind.

I def don't like shoving tho.

[z32fanatic]

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This is a tough hand but I think I'd make a really small bet here (around 300. I think we usually have the best hand but I don't think Villain's hand is strong enough to call a big bet here. By betting around 300 he'll be getting almost 5:1 on the river and will probably have a tough time folding.

It just doesn't make sense that he would have a hand that beats us here. AA or KK wouldn't play this way. You certainly would have seen a raise out of those hands by now. I think a set definitely would have raised the flop or turn because of the draw heavy board. I'm not even going to consider any straight or 2 pair as the chance is just so little against this nit with this board and I think he would have raised by now even if he did have one of those hands. He's probably not calling both the flop and turn with a flush draw. If he did and hit his flush, he would probably lead the river. If he hits the flush he's got to figure that's a scare card for you and has to fear that you'll check behind.

I'd say he most likely has TT or 99.

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This is exactly what I was thinking before I read the replies, even down to betting 250-300 to price him in. You could even bet smaller, but you're definitely ahead here, so bet as much as he'll call.

[JSH06]

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A flush would also probably check this river to get value.

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People rarely check-raise the river. It doesn't make much sense here. He has to figure you have a pretty good hand but the river is definitely a scare card for you. If he checks he has to figured you will be scared to bet a lot of the time, so it makes more sense for him to lead.