You call, and then you donk? (TPTK vs ???)

Zeldark · #1 07-09-2007, 12:36 AM

Villain is 31.01/6.2/2.05 in stats and I havent observed any specific reads after 129 hands.* I'm treating all players with respect until proven otherwise since this is the stakes which I have historically lost so much. However, I'm not exactly considering all my opponents professional material either, and I find they often provide evidence they are less than good. He however is still at the default with respect. Nothing specific either way.

*This particular hand takes place when I have about 41ish hands on him so the numbers may have changed some. Does anyone know a way to remove the other 88 hands from the looked up statistics?

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 And Multitabling Again!! Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 3 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 bets, Hero calls.

River: (8.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 bets, Hero raises, MP1 3-bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.25 BB

Turn and river are considerably more cyprtic than the flop and before. Let the discussion begin!

Shillx · #2 07-09-2007, 12:37 AM

What is the plan if the river bricks off? I don't really get it if you were planning on calling down. The river didn't change a whole lot.

Gib · #3 07-09-2007, 12:40 AM

i pop the turn looks to me like a standard donkish stop n go 'cause of the flush board plus he puts u on AK.

Zeldark · #4 07-09-2007, 12:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What is the plan if the river bricks off? I don't really get it if you were planning on calling down. The river didn't change a whole lot.

[/ QUOTE ]
You are suggesting a turn raise or a river call? Pointing out that my aggression is inconsistent?

Maliant · #5 07-09-2007, 12:49 AM

raise turn, if he c/r river just call.

Shillx · #6 07-09-2007, 12:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What is the plan if the river bricks off? I don't really get it if you were planning on calling down. The river didn't change a whole lot.

[/ QUOTE ]
You are suggesting a turn raise or a river call? Pointing out that my aggression is inconsistent?

[/ QUOTE ]

No I'm not suggesting anything. I'm just wondering what you would have done on a different river card. Did you raise because you made trips or did you just decide that you were going to wait and raise any/most rivers? I'm not real big on waiting in this spot & and I'd certainly raise the turn if I decided to raise a street. If I decided that I didn't want to raise (spare an ace on the riv) then I would have just called the river. Your equity doesn't change a whole lot when you go from TP to top trips. Sometimes it will go up slightly but oftentimes it goes down* since you can eliminate hands like 92/95/etc that would have been folded PF.

* - Not your equity against his range but equity against hands that will call or re-raise a river raise.

Zeldark · #7 07-09-2007, 12:56 AM

This was an edit but I move it here for flow:

My thinking on the river:
I pulled ahead of slowly played AA/KK preflop. I also changed my mind on the river that the odds of him having a matching Qx or a set (FH) were less likely than I thought on the turn. His raise makes for easy braking into the showdown.

Maliant · #8 07-09-2007, 01:01 AM

What was your thinking for checking turn tho?

Zeldark · #9 07-09-2007, 02:10 AM

I thought he could have 2 pair or maybe landed a set. Could've smoothcalled with AA or KK. Then I reavluated on the river and decided the chances that he has me beat are less likely than I thought they were on the turn, as I previously stated.

You guys think raising turn is better right?

that_guy_33 · #10 07-09-2007, 02:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I thought he could have 2 pair or maybe landed a set. Could've smoothcalled with AA or KK. Then I reavluated on the river and decided the chances that he has me beat are less likely than I thought they were on the turn, as I previously stated.

You guys think raising turn is better right?

[/ QUOTE ]

There is absolutely nothing about his play that represents AA/KK.

Once you decide to call down from the turn, which I don't mind personally, you have to stick to your plan. You have to realize that the river Q did not affect the hand. If you were behind, you are probably still behind. If you were ahead, you are still ahead.

If you think you are ahead, you should raise the turn, not the river.