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Old 03-12-2007, 02:49 AM
dmoney416 dmoney416 is offline
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Default 1st round NCAA/NIT sides and totals

So I have been up the majority of the night dissecting these games and hopefully have some winners. Here are my plays so far:

Niagara -8.5 (1.5 units)
Nevada -1 (2 units)
Weber St. +20 (.5 units)
Davidson +8 (1.5 units)
Holy Cross/Southern Illinois Under 109.5 (1 unit)
Pennsylvania/Texas A&M Over 136 (1 unit)
North Texas/Memphis Over 145 (1 unit)
Long Beach St./Tennessee Over 167.5 (1 unit)
New Mexico St./Texas Over 152.5 (1 unit)
Wright St./Pittsburgh Under 120.5 (1 unit)

I will have extensive write-ups on each of these games coming in the next couple of days. I may hedge, middle, increase a bet, decrease a bet, or change my mind on these games as the week progesses, and I will list this in the thread if that happens. Some other quick stuff:

Texas A&M -13.5
Georgetown -16
Pittsburgh -10
UNLV +1.5
Villanova +1
Marquette +1

Probably won't play most of these games. Maybe one of two at most.

Games I definitely won't touch:

Questions and comments welcome. GL to all during the tourney. Be back late tomorrow with the first of the write-ups.
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Old 03-12-2007, 03:27 AM
MicroBob MicroBob is offline
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Default Re: 1st round NCAA/NIT sides and totals

not entirely thrilled with the over pick on Memphis/N.Texas.

I'm picturing an 80-55 type score.
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Old 03-12-2007, 05:57 PM
dmoney416 dmoney416 is offline
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Default Re: 1st round NCAA/NIT sides and totals

Micro, definitely possible, but N. Texas has only scored under 70 five time this season. While Memphis is a big step up in competition, their defense isn't that great, so I think NT can hit the mid-high 60s.
Let's start with the Tuesday game:

Niagara (-8.5) over Florida A&M (1.5 units)

Tough to provide great statistical analysis on this game as the compeition that each team faces is vastly different. I told myself that I would bet Niagara if it was under 10. I feel that Niagara being in the play-in game in one of the under-the-radar seeding snubs in this tournament. They are better than about 5 or 6 of the regularly seeded teams in my opinion.

Looking at Florida A&M schedule, they were blown out by pretty much every mid-high major team they faced. Niagara doesn't have any huge wins, but they did win @Marist, @La Salle, Duquesne, Holy Cross, and @Central Mich. They struggled early in the season, but that was with some suspensions to some key players. They have now reeled off 11 in a row to end the season now that their team in intact.

Looking FAMU's sched, I feel that they let the other team dictate tempo, as they have played some high scoring games and then they have a game like Miami OH where they lost 52-33. So Niagara should be able to play at their desired fast pace. Also, l Like the fact that Niagara shoots 73.5% from the line. That could help down the stretch. Florida A&M also turns it over an astounding 17 times per game (.77 assist to TO) compared to Niagara's 13.3 (1.03 assist to TO)

To be honest, the stat splits for the teams are not terribly different, but we all know that playing Siena and Marist is different from playing Hampton and Bethune-Cookman.

I also feel that the Purple Eagles are going to feel slightly disrespected by their seeding and should come out with fire. I have also seen Niagara play three times this year, and have generally been impressed. Like I said, not many fancy stats since it is difficult to compare them, but I just feel that Niagara should take this by DD.

Also, if you read this story, you would be inclined to believe that the Purple Eagels will be more than ready:
"We feel disrespected," junior forward Charron Fisher said. "I'm sure you'll be able to see when we play on Tuesday how disrespected we feel."

"It was shocking," Coach Mihalich said of the seeding. "I think everybody was shocked, and maybe some people were insulted by it. But that's good. That's fine with us."

"We're ready to go," Mihalich said. "The committee did us a favor. They found a team that responds to adversity and thrives on adversity. And they gave us some more adversity to deal with."

Niagara 82
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Old 03-12-2007, 05:58 PM
dmoney416 dmoney416 is offline
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Default Re: 1st round NCAA/NIT sides and totals

Nevada (-1) over Creighton (2 units)

This is more of a value play as I feel that Nevada should be in the low 4-high 5 seeding range (I also feel that Creighton should be a 7 or an 8 seed). I had to take the Wolfpack only laying 1 here.

I am quite aware of how good Creighton is and can be. However, I simply don't feel they match-up with Nevada. Until Creighton's recent run in their conference tournament, I have not been especially impressed with them. They weren't especially impressive during non-conference (yes, I am aware of Funk's funk during this time). They sport respectable home wins over Xavier, G. Mason, and Houston, but they were largely ineffective on the road, losing @Nebraska, @Dayton, @Fresno St., and @Hawaii (all of these losses were by double digits except for a six-point loss to Dayton). They were very solid in-conference at 13-5, but they did lose their bracket-buster game to Drexel and still struggled on the road at times, losing to suspect Indiana St. and Illinois St. teams. Over they were just 5-8 in true road games.

On the other hand, Nevada put together wins @Oregon St., @Santa Clara, Cal (neutral), @Akron, and Gonzaga (neutral) during the non-conference. Their only set-backs in conference were Utah St. twice and @NMSU. They took care of business everywhere else, including sweeping Hawaii (albeit in two very close games). Often this team is made out to be all about Fazekas, but this team has a lot of talent. Eight players average double digits minutes and no player plays more than 30 minutes per game. They are led by Fazekas who averages 20 points and 11 boards per game, but Kemp averages 18 and Sessions averages 12 per game (each of these players shoots at least 79% from the line). Kyle Shiloh (more on him later) and Ikovlev also contribute. Out of their top seven scorers, all of them shoot at least 45% from the field, five of them shoot 70% or better from the stripe, and and six of them shoot 40% or better from three. It will be very tough for Creighton to match that kind of offensive efficiency.

Looking at the stat splits, each team shoots an astounding 75.5% from the line, so that is a wash. Both teams are also solid rebounding teams, as Nevada averages a +6 margin and Creighton averages a +3. However, Nevada scored 10 more points per game (this can be attributed to pace), and they shoot better from the field and from 3. On defense, while Creighton gives up seven less points (this can also be attributed to pace), Nevada is better in terms of FG% and 3-pt FG% defense.

This game is in New Orleans, which is a hike for both teams. In this case, I would prefer Nevada's 10-2 road record to Creighton's 5-8.

The X-factor in this game is the status of Nevada's guard Kyle Shiloh (9.3 ppg and a good defender). He was injured in the Idaho game and didn't play in the team's two point loss to Utah St. in the semifinals. It was originally reported that he may be out indefinitely, but a Nevada newspaper reports that they are optimistic about his return:

The good news for the Pack is starting guard Kyle Shiloh, who missed the Utah State game with a hamstring sprain, is expected to be back for the NCAA Tournament.
"He will be able to play, I'm pretty confident of that," Fox said. "Speaking with the team doctor (Jim Pappas) last night, he would not have let him play (Saturday), although Kyle asked to play last night. But he had soreness in there. We need to strengthen it back up.
"Kyle is unique. He didn't swell much after the sprained ankle (March 1). He was better (from the hamstring injury) yesterday morning than anyone anticipated. But obviously he wasn't able to play. I don't think he swells as much (as most people). Everybody's body is different. And he's a tough kid. It wasn't easy to tell him he couldn't play. He knows he has a huge impact on that game when you play Utah State. So, it wasn't easy for him, but it's what we had to do."
Shiloh has averaged 29 minutes played per game this season and Fox said the guard shouldn't have to reduce his minutes in the NCAA Tournament because of the injury.
"I think he'll be fine to be honest with you," Fox said. "I won't know for sure until we get out there and start to run around. I would be surprised if he's not (fine)."

With Shiloh, I like Nevada to win by 7-10. If he plays, I will keep this play at 2 units. If he is out, I think that Nevada wins a close one, in which case the play may be reduced to 1 unit.

Nevada 72
Creighton 63
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Old 03-12-2007, 06:28 PM
MicroBob MicroBob is offline
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Default Re: 1st round NCAA/NIT sides and totals

I honestly hadn't looked too much at UNT yet.

They ran up some big scores against crappy competition non-conf.
85-47 over Cameron (who the hell are they?), 95-77 over TX St, 94-70 vs. Jarvis C (WTF?), 83-66 vs. Belhaven.

But of late they just don't seem to be at as high a tempo against Sun Belt teams.
Some of their more recent scores include:
74-71 vs. ARK St, 77-71 vs ULM, 59-52 over MTSU.
Also 72-70 over ULL, 74-69 over UALR.
and losses to New Orleans 64-62 and ULM 66-62.

Also, this is a 12:30 game in New Orleans. Not sure if early start might result in lower scoring.
Also expect a big-time Memphis contingent there whereas I don't expect nearly as much UNT support.

Is UNT used to playing in big arenas in front of large crowds?
I did find one box-score where their home crowd was over 3k.

finally, I think you might be underestimating Memphis' defense. They are athletic, they get after the ball, they block shots...etc etc.

Recent wins for them include 71-49 over Tulane and 71-59 over Houston.
64-61 at SMU, 99-63 over Rice, 69-52 at Tulsa, 95-51 vs. Tulane, 88-52 vs. SMU, 79-54 vs. UAB and 70-56 at UAB.

They are averaging 10 steals and 6 blocks per game.

I really think it's possible that Memphis over-runs UNT right from the start and races out to a 20-4 lead or something.

Granted, most of their blow-out wins are at home.
But they keep teams from scoring and that's the point.

The New Orleans arena is going to be a similar place to play as their home Fed-Ex Forum and a LOT of fans are basically planning on heading down there and turning New Orleans into Memphis-South.

Not quite a home-game for Memphis, but much more so for them than for UNT.
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Old 03-12-2007, 06:41 PM
dmoney416 dmoney416 is offline
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Default Re: 1st round NCAA/NIT sides and totals

Appreciate the insight - I'll have a write-up on this one later as I'll have to look into it more.

You make some very good points. Do keep in mind though that teams like Tulane, Tulsa, UAB, and SMU are generally very slow paced and have a very tough time scoring.
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Old 03-12-2007, 06:58 PM
dmoney416 dmoney416 is offline
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Default Re: 1st round NCAA/NIT sides and totals

Weber St (+20) over UCLA (0.5 units)

Weber St. has only lost by this margin twice all season, by 29 @Washington and by 22 @Sacramento St. In addition, UCLA has struggled as a prohibitive favorite as of late, going 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a favorite.

I am usually not a big fan of betting 1-16 and 2-15 match-ups, but this line is a little inflated in my opinion. UCLA typically plays in the high 60s/low 70s, so 20 points may be a tough task. UCLA also shoots a pultry 64.9% from the line, so a backdoor cover is very possible if Weber St. gets overwhelmed early.

Weber St is, in my opinion, the type of team that can stick around against UCLA because they can really shoot from the perimeter. I think they would have a tougher time if they relied on slashers to score. The outside shot could singlehandedly keep Weber St around in this game. Weber shoots 48.6% from the field (50% in their last five), 39% from 3 (40% in their last five), and they are a good enough rebounding team to hang around with UCLA (+0.8 margin compared to UCLA's +3.1).

I also like Weber St's depth, as they have six players that average seven or more ppg. No one plays more than 27 minutes and they sub frequently, which should keep them fresh and fatigue-free throughout the contest. Four of the five top scorers shoot better than 50% from the field, and they have four players that shoot 40% or better from 3.

Only 0.5 units here as I feel that the dynamics of these games are hard to predict. It is always interesting to see how tight the teams are in a game like this and it is also intriguing to see whether or not the lower seed is overwhelmed from the get go.

If all goes to plan, Weber should be able to stretch the UCLA defense out enough that they can create some easy hoops off of their prolific outside shooting. If Weber can avoid the early game collapse that can plague some lower seeds, then I think they can make a game out of this.

Weber St. 56
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Old 03-12-2007, 07:59 PM
Assani Fisher Assani Fisher is offline
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Default Re: 1st round NCAA/NIT sides and totals

I like the following plays:

Niagara -8.5
ODU +1
Duke -6.5
WrightSt +10
Belmont +16.5
Louisville -5.5
Texas A&M -13.5
UCLA -19.5
VTech -2.5
Wisconsin -13
Nevada -1
USC -1.5
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Old 03-12-2007, 09:37 PM
Edcoach Edcoach is offline
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Default Re: 1st round NCAA/NIT sides and totals

Cameron is Div 2 school from Lawton, Oklahoma.
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Old 03-12-2007, 10:59 PM
iggymcfly iggymcfly is offline
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Default Re: 1st round NCAA/NIT sides and totals

I like the Nevada pick a lot. I think in general teams that have to make a big (somewhat unexpected) run in their conference tourneys just to make the NCAAs generally don't perform as well in their first round games. Nevada meanwhile has been waiting to avenge their conference tourney loss and is probably also somewhat of an underseed at a 7.
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