thoughts on silver?

[mwalsh2020]

what are the short term and long term prospects on invetsing in silver and other precious metals like gold. thoughts from anyone with any knowledge on this would be appreciated, as i am a COMPLETE newb when it comes to this arena. thanks in advance for your help.

[ItalianFX]

I don't know if this will help you:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...e=0#Post7847300

[gull]

Don't invest in metals, especially because you are a "newb."

[thehun69]

Short term, silver is a short. 5000 ounce silver trading now at 12.53, right now you want to short this to 12.20ish close to 12. Once it cracks that, $11.60 and $10.80 are the next targets.

But as I've said in other posts, you have to do your own homework, and whatever you do...IT IS ON YOU. You are responsible. If you make money or lose money it is on you and not because you read a post on a message board.

Oh, and don't let those "newb" comment get to you. How else do people elevate themselves? They do it by getting in the game and learning.

THE HUN

[gull]

The long-term prospects for silver are awful. Historically silver has had a worse return than t-bills, and with an annualized 55% standard deviation.

[shark6]

Numerous studies have shown that a 10-15% position, rebalanced annually, in precious metals will decrease your overall volatility and increase your returns. Search the net, you will find them.

Also, you are relatively early to this long term bull market in gold and silver, and hence you will encounter a lot of comments like the above telling you not to waste your time and money on this type of investment. You are best served to ignore them and make up your own mind. Think about the internet bubble, late 80's CA real estate, the Niftey Fifty stocks, 70's gold market and early 90's emerging market stocks. Do you think you would have gotten the large number of the above type negative comments (as well as the negative comments in the referenced thread) near the peak of any those bubbles? Of course not, it's when you don't hear them anymore that you know it's time to start selling.

I would suggest you start your forray into the precious metals markets with the following:

http://www.zealllc.com/2002/gold101.htm - Classic article on how to build a gold portfolio. It's starting the get a bit outdated because prices are so much higher now, but still very much worth reading to get started.

www.kitco.com - good articles on the precious metals market

www.tocquville.com - look up their Gold Fund mutual fund. It's run by an industry expert, John Hathaway, who also writes the best gold commentary. This fund would serve as an excellent base for your precious metals portfolio.

www.321gold.com - another website with commentary on the gold market.

www.financialsense.com - a weekly webcast on the markets in general, with an emphasis on the gold and silver market. Check out last Saturday's broadcast hour 2, which was about 5 ways to buy bullion.

http://roger.kwaves.com - Roger Arnold's radio show archives. Roger has made numerous brilliant calls on gold and the economy in general. He is presently bearish on gold, but he offers as good of an unbiased analysis on the economy and gold market as you can find.

[gonebroke]

[ QUOTE ]
The long-term prospects for silver are awful. Historically silver has had a worse return than t-bills, and with an annualized 55% standard deviation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Silver is up over 200% going back 6 years. The DOW is about maybe 10% during those same 6 years.

[gull]

In the last hour of poker, 73s is winning at a rate of 21 PTBB/100.

Does this mean 73s is a great hand? No.

Likewise, recent performance should not increase your tendency to buy it. In fact, it should probably slightly decrease it because the odds are now higher that it's overvalued.

Commodity exposure is a good thing though, because commodities tend to be slightly inversely correlated with stocks. Commodity futures funds are great diversifiers. You also get much higher returns than just by investing in commodities themselves.

[gonebroke]

[ QUOTE ]
In the last hour of poker, 73s is winning at a rate of 21 PTBB/100.

Does this mean 73s is a great hand? No.

Likewise, recent performance should not increase your tendency to buy it. In fact, it should probably slightly decrease it because the odds are now higher that it's overvalued.

Commodity exposure is a good thing though, because commodities tend to be slightly inversely correlated with stocks. Commodity futures funds are great diversifiers. You also get much higher returns than just by investing in commodities themselves.

[/ QUOTE ]

The guy didn't say he was planning on holding on forever. Silver was a great investment for the past 6 years and will continue to be a great investment until the commodity/precious metal bull market is over. Markets are cyclical, silver and gold were in a bear market for 20+ years, they are finally breaking out. The trend is your friend and you should be shifting your investments accordingly.

The main reason I am buying silver coins, gold coins, and silver and gold stocks is because I am bearish on the US Dollar. The US Dollar is on the verge of collapse and that event is going to proper gold and silver to the moon.

[smartalecc5]

The link doesn't work for...

www.tocquville.com - look up their Gold Fund mutual fund. It's run by an industry expert, John Hathaway, who also writes the best gold commentary. This fund would serve as an excellent base for your precious metals portfolio.