5/10 live 87s tricky spot

[smurfitup]

given your description of the opponent, i don't see how you could possibly expect him to fold an overpair on the river. if anything he'll interpret the river as a good card for him since it would counterfeit your 2 pair hands.

[Chr]

[ QUOTE ]
... feel that I have a solid draw with good implied odds

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree. An overpair is very likely, I agree to that.

How many outs do you count?

4 * 6
2 * 7
3 * 8

If a 6 falls, the board is pretty scary and he won't bleed his stack off.

If a 7 falls, he will be carefull but you might stack him.

If an 8 hits, the board looks pretty scary and you wont stack him.

Even a callingst. will need a hand on a 4567/4578 board with a guy who calls a psb.

And then there is the times where 2 pairs lose to set or his PP when board pairs.

This is not a solid draw with good implied odds at all. You even write that he can lay down hands when he thinks he is beat. On 4-str8 boards such a guy don't deliver his stack with an overpair.

Fold flop.

Ofcause fold turn.

As played your bluff on river is bad. He will call you. He is checking because there is no value in a bet - you will fold all your losing hands.

Callingstations should be used to pay of your winning hands. Don't bluff callingstations.