Pinny soccer goals over/under bet for arb

[Big TR]

I'm new to the sports betting arbing business. On the soccer matches, some of the over/under lines at Pinny read "Under 2 and 2.5 +116". Does this mean that if 2 goals are scored, I win the under 2.5? Or is it a push because it isn't under 2? I think it is the former, but unsure if it is the latter.

I'm asking because let's say I'm trying to arb this at Mansion where they have the same game at "Over 2.5 +105". If exactly 2 goals are scored and it doesn't count for the under, I'm SOL if the Pinny bet is a push. I'm 10% richer if it is not a push at Pinny.

[rush66]

Sort of, Under 2 and 2.5 means. Say you bet 100, you have 50 to win 58 on under 2 and 50 to win 58 on under 2.5. There for if 2 goals are scored you make 8 dollars. If 3 goals are scored you lose 100, but make 105. If 1 goal is scored you make 116 and lose 100. But if two goals is scored you make 8 but lose 100.

This seems like I just reiterated what you said. I dont know if its an arb, but you are betting that 2 goals is not scored for what seems to be pretty good odds.

Someone with more knowledge may want to chime in however.

[playersare]

you can't arb u2/2.5 with o2.5, because you lose 25% of your principal if the game falls on 2.

it's somewhat rare to find a scalp where both sides have positive juice. that is generally a tipoff to look more carefully at the exact nature of the lines.

[Big TR]

Okay, so if you are correct, at Pinny I'm basically placing two bets with my single bet. This thought hadn't even crossed my mind. So this would not be an arb since there is a possiblity that I lose $92 if exactly two goals are scored.

I'm a typical American who knows nothing about soccer, but two goals probably happens a large enough percentage of the time to make this an overall loser.

[BobJoeJim]

I thought every soccer game ended in a zero-zero tie? Isn't under always a lock?

[/troll]

[ImBen]

This is a Polish middle. Given the right lines, you can have a profitable bet. This specific case, however, has a hugely negative expectation.

[Big TR]

Pinny quickly responded telling me that in this scenario, if 2 goals are scored that half of the bet is a push and half is a win.

This jives with playersare's statement that I lose 1/2 of my equity on this bet.

Thanks for the info.