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  #1  
Old 09-06-2006, 12:06 AM
SoloAJ SoloAJ is offline
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Default Rookie\'s CFB Week 2...

First season sports betting. Here's how the rookie rolls...

8-9 overall up .06 units w00t!

CFB Week 2 early picks

FAU +22.5 v KSt
FAU is absolutely terrible from what I gather. That said, Kansas State should have lost to Illinois State if not for a couple special teams plays and the fact that ISU went for 2 down by 1 in the closing minutes. Basically, I don't think Kansas State can put up too many points in this game and expect FAU to hang around. I seriously think FAU could get shutout and cover...we'll see.

Tulsa +5 v. BYU
This is simply a pick where I'm jumping on what others have noted as a decent line. I'm believing in the idea that Tulsa could be strong by the end of the year and I locked in a +5 here early-ish.

NIU -14.5 v Ohio
I think NIU is a stronger team than week 1 showed. I also expect Wolfe to be very strong in this game. While I would love to have gotten in at this when it was -14..I still see good enough value here that I wanted to jump before it got worse (if it does..if not..I'll probably double up on it).

Auburn -20 v Miss St.
Popular pick. No reason to explain it. My reasons are the same as eveyone elses...mostly that Auburn is better than SCU.


Lemme know thoughts...or just let my thread die and break my heart [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
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  #2  
Old 09-06-2006, 01:53 AM
vetman81 vetman81 is offline
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Default Re: Rookie\'s CFB Week 2...

I want to comment on the Kansas State FAU game. After watching first hand the debacle from last week, I would say that there is little to no chance of us covering that spread. We didnt have a single offensive TD, and only mustered 207 yards of total offense vs a 1AA school. Our O-line is just too weak for our offense to function. Unless the D and special teams come up big, I highly doubt we will cover the 22.5 point spread. I already put a bet on FAU, and I am a huge KState fan.

Edit: I will add that KSU has a knack for coming back big after a poor performance like that, but I just dont see us having enough of an offensive line for it this year.
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  #3  
Old 09-06-2006, 02:09 AM
DaveyDonk DaveyDonk is offline
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Default Re: Rookie\'s CFB Week 2...

I was there as well and KSU is pretty god awful. They do get their starting RB this week I believe, but with their O-Line I doubt it makes much of a difference. I may put a little money on it as well, and I go to K-State too.
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  #4  
Old 09-06-2006, 02:42 AM
iggymcfly iggymcfly is offline
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Default Re: Rookie\'s CFB Week 2...

To be fair, FAU's worse than a lot of I-AA teams. I'm not saying that Kansas State will necessarily cover, but it will be close, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they did.
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  #5  
Old 09-06-2006, 05:38 AM
MyTurn2Raise MyTurn2Raise is offline
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Default Re: Rookie\'s CFB Week 2...

OK....all this Kansas State-Florida Atlantic talk got me to do something I highly doubted I would do....I cracked out the DVR recording of Clemson-Florida Atlantic from this past week and watched it.

OMG....cliff notes: Clemson was very unimpressive and still beat Florida Atlantic 54-6 despite 4 really bad turnovers and a few missed kicks

Florida Atlantic was the worst team I saw all weekend...that includes 1-AA Montana and Eastern Illinois.

Florida Atlantic is possibly the WORST TEAM IN DIVISION 1-A football

let me start with the positives I saw for FAU:
-the o-line did a pretty good job of pass protection against a relatively bland pass rush from Clemson
-the d-line did a good job of not allowing Clemson a surge on straight-ahead run plays (the run to give Clemson 31 was one of the few exceptions). The great majority of rush yards for Clemson came from misdirections and beating FAU to the outside.

Now, the negatives (there are alot):
-FAU had absolutely no chance at rushing. O-line surge was nonexistent. The rbs had nowhere near enough speed to ever get to the outside for + yards. Rushing game nonexistent.
-Even though the o-line gave protection, both QBs for FAU are gawdamned awful. They were making bad reads and throwing the ball off-target to those reads. I'm not sure what either one was looking at the entire game. This was more than 'deer in headlights.' This was more than bad coaching and preparation. This was total lack of talent for the major collegiate level.
-FAU receivers did not have the play making ability to overcome those handicaps of no rushing attack and bad QBs.
-the coaching was completely uninspired in preparation and initial attack. It wasn't until about the 7 minute mark of the 2nd quarter that the FAU offensive scheme showed signs of creativity and potential to score. Until then, the scheme and plays where just awful (this is not something I insult very often). Schnellenberger must've thought he was back at OU and could just line them up and call off-tackle left and right and put up 50 against Big 8 cannon fodder. I try to give him credit for finally adjusting his playcalling (by moving the QBs around, some misdirection to the running---basically, stuff to slow the Clemson d-line surge), but the only reason the adjustment looked good was because the original scheme was so bad.
-FAU's defense cannot get off a block ever. They are an offensive coordinator's chalkboard dream. Every guy gets blocked by the assignment as though they were intentionally running into the blocker. It was amazing. No one had the skill, strength, or whatever to get off the initial blocks. Pulling guards and tackles created the overloads of blocking that wakes up o-line coaches from their wet dreams.
-FAU lacked any element of skill and talent on defense. Their speed was atrocious. They could not cover one WR for more than 2.5 seconds. They could not catch up to any run to the outside. Pathetic.
-This lack of speed carried over to special teams. If you get a chance, try to find the video of Clemson's 92-yard punt return for a td to make it 47-6. The punt returner muffed the ball and picked it up about 15 yards from where he initially made contact. There was still only one FAU player near him. The returner finds the gap and, then, it was like watching a man blow by 5-year olds in a sprint.
-Finally, FAU's physical appearance portrayed a very negative mental image. I hate this kind of stuff, but the way shoulders were slumped and the lack of any swagger was noticeable.


I hate to be against a bet based on only one team, as the bet is, obviously, the comparative merits of two teams. So, while I cannot say that I am against this bet, I can say that Florida Atlantic is, in all likelihood, significantly worse than Illinois State. I cannot get myself to bet on this one.
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  #6  
Old 09-06-2006, 09:27 AM
SoloAJ SoloAJ is offline
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Default Re: Rookie\'s CFB Week 2...

Thanks for the input guys. Somehow I had a feeling the responses would come ont hat game..just because no one else has bet on it and it is a low level game...

Like I said, MOST of my lean on this bet was from the KState side. I realized that FAU was bad (though I didn't get to see the game..not that I had to to get an idea of the fact they suck)...and ISU is actually ranked like 7 in 1AA this year..so they are probably much better than FAU actually...

That all said...KSt was unimpressive as people noted...and the offenses of both teams seem dead. I don't know offhand what the under is..

but it might be an interesting play there too...If Kansas State's Offense plays bad again...this game could be 21-0 and cover both ways...

Again, thanks for the input (and the analysis MT2R)....I'll update as I throw in more bets this week.
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  #7  
Old 09-06-2006, 12:26 PM
SoloAJ SoloAJ is offline
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Default Re: Rookie\'s CFB Week 2...

I added quite a few games but nothing much that I haven't seen already gone over. Games like Iowa and UCLA.

One game I am adding is Colorado State -2 against Colorado.

I don't see Montana as an incredible power house team. They are ranked like 4th in the 1AA rankings, but still...Colorado needed to win that game to show they have SOMETHING this year.

Mostly taking this line because it is a rivalry and Colorado State has done well in the last few in the series, particularly when @ Colorado...so they aren't afraid of this game.

2 points doesn't seem like too much to give when I expect this game to be a CSU win and perhaps by more than a touchdown.

Sorry the analysis is pretty much non-existent, but I don't have much I'm going on here other than it jumped out as an easy line...
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