This is a call, yes? Reality check please.....

[tipperdog]

This doesn't seem especially close to me, but I'm going through a horrid downswing that has me questioning the spelling of my own name...so please indulge me.

We are playing an $80 Stars qualifier to the weekly WSOP tourney. Top 4 win a seat, 5th wins the $500 remainder, which is close to seat value.

11 players left. I have T5,800, which puts me sixth. No players have clinched a seat this point, CL (at another table) has about $12,000. Blinds have just increased to 300/600/50. We are six-handed.

UTG folds, UTG+1 (short stack) pushes for ~1,800. OTB pushes for ~6,500. I have JJ in the SB and call.

Results in White:

<font color="white"> UTG has A2s, OTB has AQ. I lose the flip and get busted. </font>

[BigPoppa]

I'm no expert in satellites, but I likely fold here.

You need to accumulate some chips before you can even think about folding into the money. Winning here will make you chipleader and put you in great shape, but you can't just look at the upside. I'm not sure you've got a greatest chance of winning here, and you're not so short that you need to gamble it up.

Shortie might be pushing with anything, but the button has to have some sort of a hand to isolate. The question is how good of a hand. Have you seen him push before to isolate a short-stack, and with what hands? Have you seen him flat call a short-stack when he could've isolated, and with what hands?

The key is what he would do with the medium pairs that you dominate and with big pairs that dominate you. If you can say his range is 88+/AQ+, then it's a call (especially if he'd flat call AA/KK hoping for another caller). If you don't think he'd isolate with medium pairs, then it's a fold.

You never want to be in a position where you coinflip with half of a player's range and are dominated by most of the other half. JJ is definitely the dividing line here, as TT is an easy fold and I gladly call with QQ (since you're only dominated by AA/KK and dominate the rest of Button's range except AK).

Since I generally prefer to be the one making big raises rather than calling them and I'm not even close the desperation, I fold JJ in this situation.

[Vancity82]

It seems really close, if winning this pot puts you even with the CL who can't fold in, and you have ~ 50% or better to get in without this, do you really want to take a coinflip or wouldn't pushing another hand as opposed to calling this hand be better. I'm not sure but at this point shouldn't you only be calling with AA when a similar medium stack pushes?

[JFJB]

This is a difficult decision when in the heat of battle. The first all in is in all evidence a no brainer to call. The real question is what is the range of the OTB? I think it is AK, AQ, AA, KK, QQ, 10-10 and maybe KQs. There are 72 hands of which 48 you are in a coin flip (55-45) 18 hands when you are dominated (20-80) and 6 when you dominate (80-20). You have to put in 5500 to win a pot of 8800 so you have 1.6 to 1 pot odds.

So 66% of the time you are 55% = 0.3667
25% of the time you are 20% = 0.05
and the last 8.3% you are 80% = 0.0667

So you are 0.4834 or a 2:1 underdog. The pot is offering you 1:6.

You should have folded.

The key in this analysis is the range of hands the OTG could have to make is play. You have to make an educated guess. You could disagree with my range but use the analysis above and try to figure out what range would have made a call mandatory in your situation. I highly recommand the exercise.

Hope it helps

[BigPoppa]

I agree with your conclusion, but not your range.

I see 88/99 pushing to isolate here far more than KQ. I'd say even AJ/A10 are more likely than KQ.

[Frank Zappy]

Tough, tough, tough decision. Don't let the results cloud your judgment.

First, blinds and antes assure that you will have to make a move at some point to get into the money. Is this the time?

Assume UTG+1 pushes with any paint or Ace, what does OTB push with in response? I think it's any PP&gt;4, any Ace, Any paint with 7+ kicker. That's a big range and he's looking to keep everyone else out. If he AA, KK or AK, wouldn't he just to call and encourage an overcaller?

Best case for us (Wishful thinking?): UTG+1 has one over and OTB has smaller PP.

Likely case: Between the 2 there are at least 2 different overcards and we're in a three-legged race.

Worst Case (Least Likely): Both have us dominated.

If I don't call and OTB picks up this pot, he can easily make the rest of the tournament Hell for us by using those extra chips to push hard on us.

I'd call.

[greg44]

could you have created a worse range against JJ???? I mean you might as well elminate TT since we're dominating that hand. How are AJ,77-99, hell maybe even 66 and AT not included in the range??? I'm too lazy to do math but I think a realistic hand range would be AJ+,77+,KQ.

[tipperdog]

[ QUOTE ]
could you have created a worse range against JJ???? I mean you might as well elminate TT since we're dominating that hand. How are AJ,77-99, hell maybe even 66 and AT not included in the range??? I'm too lazy to do math but I think a realistic hand range would be AJ+,77+,KQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

While I didn't run numbers in real time at the table, I figured his range was something like 88+ and AJ+. Also, I figured that I should somewhat discount AA since he'd be more likely to call.

OTB had been playing relatively tight, but the blinds had just increased from 200/400 to 300/600, which is a massive jump given the chipstacks in play. As the tourney entered this new phase, I don't know how much I can rely on past tight play as a guide for current activity.

[JFJB]

I agree with you greg that the range is bad and it was done that way with purpose. For those who are willing to do the math it is an great exercise to expend the range (like you are proposing) and try to find the break even point (i.e. when you are better than 1.6 to 1 to win).

FYI since you do not want to do the math the range you propose is 1.7:1. Hence still a fold

[JFJB]

With the range you propose you are still 1.73:1 and it is still a fold.

The price of the hand for your JJ was simply too high. Break even point occurs at about 22+ with a lot of high paint card combination included.