implied/pot odds question with pocket pairs postflop

[ragip]

Hi,
This is a general question, so no hand history. Say you´re holding a medium pocket pair, such as 88, in early position. you call preflop, late position raises, you call. pot of 8BB (approx., assuming 4 people see the flop). You don't hit the flop, which is something uncoordinated, like A T 3 rainbow. You get a bet and some calls before it comes to you. Do you call this? My reasoning is that you have a 5 % chance of hitting on the turn, so if it's .25 - .50, putting in .25 on the flop you should have to have an expectation of winning 20 x .25 = 5$ if you hit, which is easily the case if you have a total of 3 people staying in. Most things I´ve read, however, seem to advocate folding. Am I making a mistake in how I'm calculating this, or is the uncoordinated flop/preflop raise/low stakes with everybody staying in once they call the flop combination an exception?

Thanks for any input. Oh and I do realize that if you have people capable of folding hands like AJ to a check raise on the turn this is probably -EV.

[kazana]

First off, there are 8SB in the pot, only 4BB.
I wouldn't reckon getting 20BBs into the pot on the river is the norm.

With two overcards on the flop there are 6 cards (the matching 3 cards each) that could have hit the flop.

The chance that one or more of your 3 opponents (holding random cards) did connect with the flop is 58%. (Probably quite a bit more considering how popular even A-rag is)
If they didn't connect and therefore are behind they still may have draws to a higher pair with 3-6 outs each. (Some of these draws may be shared draws).
If they did connect and you're behind you're drawing to 2 outs.

Your redraw is much weaker than their redraws. You are more likely behind than ahead. Not a pretty situation to be in.

[Malcom Reynolds]

Just do a simple pot odds calculation. Do I have the pot odds to draw to a 2 outer? That is, are you getting 22 to 1? And how big is the risk of being raised behind?

Also make sure you know the difference between the following two situations.

Hero has 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in MP. UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, button folds, SB calls, BB checks.

1. Flop comes: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2. Flop comes: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB bets, SB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero?

Make sure you understand why Hero calls on flop 1 but folds on flop 2.