Two Plus Two Newer Archives Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
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#31
11-29-2007, 08:11 PM
 OziBattler Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: 363ing the micros Posts: 3,940
Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do

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What I don't understand about c/c is what card comes on the river that helps you?

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If I were playing you and you slowed down here I would bet with any two cards.

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Admittedly, this guy doesnt play like you but this comment only strengthens the c/c argument so Ill win at least one more BB when ahead whereas Ill not win anymore when you/he fold to my bet.
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Are you saying you have the odds to call two on the chance he bluffs with no spade?

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yes. I gave a read that I think this guy can value bet (at least on the turn) with KK, QQ. Im very confident c/c is +EV....se grunch by 36.

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He needs 22 to 1 to draw to a set, which is a bad call. But its a bad call for me too and since my set is probably discounted the choice is check/fold or bet/fold.

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Smurf, IMHO you havent really created any solid argument for bet/fold given the info youve been given.
#32
11-29-2007, 08:15 PM
 OziBattler Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: 363ing the micros Posts: 3,940
Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do

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:grunch:

Ok, here we go:

1. Odds he has spade is 14/27 = 51.9%.

2. Calling down reasonable? YES – big mistake not to
Scenario 1 – Villain Bet / Bet
a) has spade = -2BB*0.519 = -1.038BB
b) no spade = +15BB*0.481 = +7.215BB
EV = +6.177BB
Scenario 2 – Villain Bet / Check (50% of time)
a) has spade = -2BB*0.519 = -1.038BB
b) no spade but QQ/JJ = +14BB*0.11 = +1.55BB
c) no spade = +15BB*0.37 = +5.55BB
EV = +6.062BB
So, you lose out on ~6BB by not calling down.

3. Is b/f better than c/c?
No, I can’t see b/f giving a better EV than 6BB.

4. Wider range?
Odds he has spade go to 18/35 = 51.4%...so no real change here
EV on scenario 1 above doesn’t change and scenario 2 EV goes down a little but not enough to change anything.

[img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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I havent checked the numbers in detail (14/27 and the extra range not changing much is right though) but in general this looks good and I agree with the sentiment so obviously Ill say Well done. nice grunch.

kudos to Mav too
#33
11-29-2007, 08:29 PM
 Smurph64 Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Ontario Canada Posts: 1,574
Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do

I am curious what is your record versus this guy, since this a read dependant move based on the post?

Let me see some other hands with this guy to see his betting line here, ie 4 flush boards and/or overpairs.

It seems to me something is fishy in Denmark.
#34
11-29-2007, 08:53 PM
 OziBattler Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: 363ing the micros Posts: 3,940
Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do

well even though Ive got lots of hands against this guy it doesnt mean I have any that relate to this spot (im not at home so cant check PT). I would have to go and dig through hands where he has been to SD and look at them....BUT I can tell from this guys stats and betting standards (he doesnt get out of line) that his range is what i told you it is. furthermore, if it is wide than what I suggest it doesnt really matter because even if we add hands to his range it doesnt change the spade percentage.

What Im getting at, and if anyone else wants to agree/disagree with me then Im all ears, is that given his range I think his play can be predicted to the degree which ive eluded to in previous posts on this and I dont think I need a specific example to do it. Remember, he isnt lag he isnt tricky tag he is a tag who doesnt get out of line...if he did I would have a note on him to that effect but I dont (if I did I would have said so in OP).

Maybe Im just being pig headed but Ive done my best to put myself in this villians shoes and Im more convinced than ever that c/c &gt; b/f &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; c/f.

oh and to be clear, its not the 'bet' part of the bet/fold that troubles me...folding if raised is easy peasy.
#35
11-29-2007, 11:12 PM
 maverickai Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 338
Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do

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AK
8 possible hands

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Not too hot on this myself, but I *think* that's one short for the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]...

Making it 55.5555555555 (etc) he has a spade.

Similarly for AQs when you expand his hand range.

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Oops, ok. thanks for informing. But too lazy to recalculate. Wont' change much anyway.
#36
11-30-2007, 12:35 AM
 tailspin4540 Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 277
Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do

Grunch.

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MP1 is a prima grinder regular. he runs at about 15/8/2+ aggro. He isnt very imaginative but does value bet and is decent if somewhat ABC postflop. We've played enough together for him to know Im TAG.

So heres the deal. Once he caps preflop, given I 3bet in the BB (he should know Im not betting light here), his range is almost certainly AA-JJ and AK.

On the turn, if i check and he bets and I dont CR then he will know i dont have a spade. so he will value bet (correctly) with any spade in his range on both the turn and river. You can assume that he will also value bet KK and QQ (without a spade) and probably JJ if i check it down...although to be fair he MIGHT check behind the river if he has QQ/JJ but no Spade.

So heres where the maths come in..and it shouldnt be that hard to do.

1. Given his range, what are teh odds he has a spade?
2. Based on 1 and given the reads i gave, is calldowning down reasonable?
3. Is bet/fold the turn better than c/c?
4. If we give him a slightly wider range (add hands like TT, AQs) does it change anything?

I encourage noobs to have a go at this

Prima Network 1.00/2.00 Hold'em (7 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls.

Turn: (13 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero Ponders....

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1. If I'm counting the combinations correctly, there are 30 possible live combos of AA-JJ and AK (including A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], but we may be able to discount this somewhat since villain didn't cap the flop). All four of the A,K,Q, and J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] are out, so there are 10 ways he can have those pairs with a spade. Add the possible AK combos (A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Kx), and that's five more. So there's a 50 percent chance he has a spade. That's not good for us.

2. I don't think so. I think, given the action, he has a very good idea of what we have, and if he has the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] he probably knows exactly what we have.

3. If we check, you say he can bet a worse hand like KK or QQ with no spades. I'm leaning toward bet/fold only because if he doesn't have a spade, we'll probably win the pot with a bet here. I'm really not sure, though. (Given your description of him as "not very imaginative" and "ABC postflop", I'm not afraid of a bluff-raise. If I do bet, it's the last bet I'm putting into this pot.)

4. Adding TT, A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] brings the chances under 50%, but not by much, and certainly not by enough to do anything differently.
#37
11-30-2007, 12:17 PM
 Point Blank Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 1,843
Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do

reading almost all the way down ... til Smurph posted an hurt my head [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I'm only going to put one more BB in the pot (most of the time) ... my plan would be a c.c on the turn (which looks like a showdown play), most villains will not be the river without a spade (it will take a real champ to bet the river with crap) ... OZI's thoughts are sound - IMO

of course against an 'aggressive thinking player' that you play regularly you need to call the river bet (maybe even check raise the turn, just for fun [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

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