400NL Set, uglyish board.

[Melchiades]

Villain is 45/4/0.8 over 200 hands and a fish. He is the reason I raised so much pre and bet this big on the flop. Is this AK/55 enough to call. Just got that horrible feeling when he pushed. With this dude this is never ever any kind of draw. I'm running bad, sorry if this is stupid.

Party Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $396.10
Hero (MP): $571
CO: $460
BTN: $649.20
SB: $727
BB: $416.20

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $18</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $18, SB calls $16, BB folds

Flop: ($58) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $50</font>, BTN calls $50, SB calls $50

Turn: ($208) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $130</font>, BTN folds, <font color="red">SB raises to $659 and is All-In</font>, Hero calls $373 and is All-In

[mythrilfox]

i keep going back and forth on this, and i think it's pretty close tbh.

arguments for calling:

1. you are getting 2-1.
2. if you are ahead, you are way ahead (90%+)
3. if you're behind, you're not that far behind (22%)
4. he is bad. who knows what he'd show up with here

which all seem pretty compelling, but the fact of the matter is, there are many players who fit your player description who won't go in here without the nuts, period. I mean, 55/ak occasionally put more action in on the flop given the drawy board, and they also might get scared off by the strength you've been showing and just opt to call down. what is his postflop aggression like? hopefully you should know by now if he's the kind of player that always goes call/call/call when big money goes in, almost regardless of his holding

also keep in mind both suited and offsuit JT's are in his range here, which comprise more hand combos than all sets/2ps combined.

i think this is a close fold, and if my gut was telling me to fold i'd probably listen to it.