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  #1  
Old 08-29-2007, 06:13 PM
emerson emerson is offline
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Default Button, cutoff, and hijack win rates

Since the Stoxtrader book came out I developed new ranges for steals, re-steals, etc. I am looking at my stats over the last 60,000 hands played. I would have thought that the button should have the best win rate, followed by the cutoff, and then the hijack. But it is the opposite.

My first thought was to get more conservative from the button and cutoff, thinking that perhaps the hijack is doing better with the smaller range. But it then occurred to me that the higher win rate may be due to having more opportunities to be the open raiser when two off the button... you get to raise with the marginal hands and the button and cutoff have to fold hands they were ready to open with. I hope this is the reason and not that the ranges I'm using for button and cutoff are too agressive.

Do others see this same pattern in their positional stats?
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  #2  
Old 08-29-2007, 06:53 PM
elena_elphie elena_elphie is offline
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Default Re: Button, cutoff, and hijack win rates

I'm guessing you're not isolating enough, isolating the looser raiser in the HJ/MP from the CO/ Button is one of the major sources of profit from those two spots in tighter games.
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  #3  
Old 08-29-2007, 08:13 PM
stoxtrader stoxtrader is offline
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Default Re: Button, cutoff, and hijack win rates

with 60k hands, variance will play a huge role here. to refine your ranges look at individual hands by position and check your cutoffs for each position.
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  #4  
Old 08-29-2007, 08:56 PM
nineinchal nineinchal is offline
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Default Re: Button, cutoff, and hijack win rates

[ QUOTE ]
My first thought was to get more conservative from the button and cutoff, thinking that perhaps the hijack is doing better with the smaller range. But it then occurred to me that the higher win rate may be due to having more opportunities to be the open raiser when two off the button... you get to raise with the marginal hands and the button and cutoff have to fold hands they were ready to open with. I hope this is the reason and not that the ranges I'm using for button and cutoff are too agressive.



[/ QUOTE ]

That sounds like a reasonable hypothesis, but what are your stats for each position?

Stox also makes a good case that the variance can't be nailed down exactly. We would all be interested to see what came up in your data.
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  #5  
Old 08-30-2007, 12:24 AM
emerson emerson is offline
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Default Re: Button, cutoff, and hijack win rates

[ QUOTE ]
I'm guessing you're not isolating enough, isolating the looser raiser in the HJ/MP from the CO/ Button is one of the major sources of profit from those two spots in tighter games.

[/ QUOTE ]

That could be possible. I may be too conservative on re-steals. I'll have to look into it. But I'm actually interested in comparisons. Few people are ever willing to discuss their numbers. I'm wondering if others show higher win rates at cutoff and hijack than the button.
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  #6  
Old 08-30-2007, 12:56 AM
emerson emerson is offline
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Default Re: Button, cutoff, and hijack win rates

[quoteThat sounds like a reasonable hypothesis, but what are your stats for each position?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is using a filter to include only hands where at least 4 players were dealt hands.

In terms of BB won per hand:
button=.06
1 off=.08
2 off=.12

I'll check back after I have a bigger sample. I'll also check the bottoms of the ranges to see performance as Stox suggested. I want to be sure this is not being caused by hands like 22,33, A3s, etc, that I'd be open raising from the button but not from 2 away.
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  #7  
Old 08-30-2007, 10:08 AM
nineinchal nineinchal is offline
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Default Re: Button, cutoff, and hijack win rates

[ QUOTE ]
[quoteThat sounds like a reasonable hypothesis, but what are your stats for each position?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is using a filter to include only hands where at least 4 players were dealt hands.

In terms of BB won per hand:
button=.06
1 off=.08
2 off=.12

I'll check back after I have a bigger sample. I'll also check the bottoms of the ranges to see performance as Stox suggested. I want to be sure this is not being caused by hands like 22,33, A3s, etc, that I'd be open raising from the button but not from 2 away.

[/ QUOTE ]

Collect a greater sample and post. All those postions yield a positive expectation.

The other question is, why wouldn't you be open raising with a suited ace from the hijack? It's a possible draw to the nuts and top pair, against four more possible callers. Also, 22, and 33, would be worth an open raise.

See Sklansky, Holdem Poker for Advanced Players,p.247, questions 3 and 4.
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  #8  
Old 08-30-2007, 10:33 AM
emerson emerson is offline
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Default Re: Button, cutoff, and hijack win rates

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[quoteThat sounds like a reasonable hypothesis, but what are your stats for each position?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is using a filter to include only hands where at least 4 players were dealt hands.

In terms of BB won per hand:
button=.06
1 off=.08
2 off=.12

I'll check back after I have a bigger sample. I'll also check the bottoms of the ranges to see performance as Stox suggested. I want to be sure this is not being caused by hands like 22,33, A3s, etc, that I'd be open raising from the button but not from 2 away.

[/ QUOTE ]

Collect a greater sample and post. All those postions yield a positive expectation.

The other question is, why wouldn't you be open raising with a suited ace from the hijack? It's a possible draw to the nuts and top pair, against four more possible callers. Also, 22, and 33, would be worth an open raise.

See Sklansky, Holdem Poker for Advanced Players,p.247, questions 3 and 4.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to touch on that suited ace question, it is just the kicker size. I open raise with A3s on the button and increase the kicker requirement by one for each place you move away from the button. I open with A5s in the hijack. With pocket pairs it is 22 on the button, then 33 on the cutoff, and again increase by one for each place moving away from the button. I'm thinking of tightening the pocket pairs up by one notch, starting with 33 on the button.

I've read the Sklansy book several times. This is intended to be a more advanced area than that book deals with. That book does not come close to dealing with the specificity of opening ranges for each key position, blind defense, etc, that the Stox book does. Also, Poker Tracker allows us to answer specific questions about what types of hands perform best at which positions in the exact types of games we play and fine tune a bit more.
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  #9  
Old 08-30-2007, 11:27 AM
ProfessorBen ProfessorBen is offline
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Default Re: Button, cutoff, and hijack win rates

You should be adjusting far more than that in difficult games, because a observant Button player will notice this and pummel you with his position.
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  #10  
Old 08-30-2007, 12:41 PM
emerson emerson is offline
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Default Re: Button, cutoff, and hijack win rates

[ QUOTE ]
You should be adjusting far more than that in difficult games, because a observant Button player will notice this and pummel you with his position.

[/ QUOTE ]

Those are not really adjustments. They are default settings from which adjustments are made.
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