TT w/ PF raisers on a mostly harmless board - Page 2

CrMenace · #11 07-26-2007, 06:30 PM

GRUNCH

I think I would c/3b this just about never in game time situation. Next step is to think through if it is theoretically correct...

If BB is a decently savvy player, he might be c/r'ing his flush draw on the flop to buy outs. Since he cold-called pf (and seems relatively nitty pf, and raise-or-fold type post flop - albeit based on limited hands), I think he's more likely to c/r a made hand than a draw on the flop.

So I'd assume we are more likely to be ahead than behind. I'd furhter assume we're going to pay 3BB to win a pot of 8-10BB to call this down. This meanns we need to be ahead 30-40% of the time. Are we? Well, maybe, but we also have avoid being drawn out. Finally, we're not closing the action by calling, so I'd be that much tighter.

Point is, I wouldn't even call the flop, much less 3b it.

CrMenace · #12 07-26-2007, 06:45 PM

Turn feels like a bet to me. MP2 is likely to have capped his big pockets, IMO. So there's a toss-up between medium pockets and overs. BB is also at this point clearly on an FD assuming we're not c/r'd. Basically, I'd like to give neither of these guys a free card. If I'm raised on the turn, I'd give serious consideration to laying it down.

CrMenace · #13 07-26-2007, 07:29 PM

OK, since no one else even contemplated folding the flop I'll assume this is dead wrong and take it as a learning opportunity. I guess I painted myself a doomsday scenario looking for reasons to fold when in point of fact, pot is large, I have a hand with decent winning chances, and should be looking for reasons to stay in. Not sure if I can convince myself to c/3b though -- I guess it protects against overs where calling does not.

More proof that I still suck at poker, TT in particular.

Zeldark · #14 07-26-2007, 07:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
More proof that I still suck at poker, TT in particular.

[/ QUOTE ]
People don't post hands because they're easy.

NIX · #15 07-27-2007, 11:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
GRUNCH

I think I would c/3b this just about never in game time situation. Next step is to think through if it is theoretically correct...

If BB is a decently savvy player, he might be c/r'ing his flush draw on the flop to buy outs. Since he cold-called pf (and seems relatively nitty pf, and raise-or-fold type post flop - albeit based on limited hands), I think he's more likely to c/r a made hand than a draw on the flop.

So I'd assume we are more likely to be ahead than behind. I'd furhter assume we're going to pay 3BB to win a pot of 8-10BB to call this down. This meanns we need to be ahead 30-40% of the time. Are we? Well, maybe, but we also have avoid being drawn out. Finally, we're not closing the action by calling, so I'd be that much tighter.

Point is, I wouldn't even call the flop, much less 3b it.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think we have enough of a read on the BB to really know what he's up to at this point. He has been tight so far, but he may just have been card dead and playing random stuff out of the blinds that he's raising when he hits or folding when he misses. I agree there is a decent chance that he's raising made hands, but I would expect him to cap AA and KK preflop until I see evidence that he won't. If he is raising a made hand on the flop, that puts as ahead of 88/99/A7s (maybe) and behind 77/JJ/QQ and I'm not sure what he would even play for two more preflop. I'd rather 3-bet and hope to get a fold from MP2 if he has overs. If someone caps behind us, I'd call the cap and proceed from there.

Against two players with such small sample sizes, I'm not ready to lay down an overpair on the flop just yet, especially when one of them (MP2) hasn't given us any real indication that he's ahead of us.

JerBear77 · #16 07-27-2007, 11:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Call flop raise, bet turn, bet river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Its Ts, its not like its Ks or As. Your still behind a decent part of his range. The J on the turn is not slowing me down but once he raises then the C/R is not an option and you now have to call it down. Im not sure if I would lead the Turn card but I certainly want a SD here.

Sushiglutton · #17 07-27-2007, 12:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Eh, I'm not too sure that BB would check/raise and cap the flop with three players on just a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Players do that. Why do u think he is checking turn?

Sushiglutton · #18 07-27-2007, 12:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I really think betting the turn is bad.

What do you "bet turn" guys think MP2 has after he calls hero's 3-bet on the flop..? AK, AQ? People call with overs here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think they do. Also if raised we have a pretty clear lay-down so betting may save us a bet. If we give a free card it could mean disaster.