Hypothetical river play

[NinaWilliams]

Villain is a little on the loose side, overdefends his bb and peels lots of flops. He probably views Hero as LAG.

Preflop Hero raises K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the CO, button and sb fold, bb calls.

Flop J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB checks, hero bets, Villain calls

Turn 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
BB check, hero checks

River T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB bets, Hero raises

[mvoss]

Isn't this just a question of putting him on a range and stoving your hand against it?

[rzk]

just wondering, why didn't you bet the turn? the straight draw came in but he could still maybe fold something like A2o or call with a draw like 89. were you planning to fold UI?

as played, i feel we can safely raise/fold here as he often has a lower pair. but i haven't done any stoving, just a gut feeling.

[Carmine]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't this just a question of putting him on a range and stoving your hand against it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Mvoss sorry I'm bringing this up on your post. It's just something that has been irking me for awhile.

Why is it in the past six months or so that this forum feels the only way to come to a conclusion about a hand is to stove it. They don't consider the action, the players, hand reading skills, nothing.

Do I really need a computer program to tell me against a guy defending 70% of his hands that i'm ahead 22/3x/44/55/6x/7x/88/99. That I need to discount Jx slightly because of flop play. Does stove tell me if the turn check is correct agaisnt this particular player.

I'm sorry but it's like people forgot to think for themsleves. Few stratgey discissions anymore.

RZK wants to know why OP didn't bet the turn. Well e'fn stove it dude. Stove will tell that the flop is dry as an e'fin bone and the guy called a flop bet. Stove will tell you there's a good chance you are behind on the turn and maybe you should take the FC or this is the perfect player to induce a bluff on the river with K high.

I don't understand why we all bother posting here anymore. Just e'fin stove it!!


Okay, I feel better now.

[frenchpignouf]

I bet the turn, many GS pay a bet on the turn and we have 6 outs very often, if he has a pair. Folding to a check raise is easy and I don't like folding to a bet on the river.

On the river we are very often ahead. He would have prolly c/r the flop with a J. He don't fold with a pair, so it is +EV imo.

[frenchpignouf]

[ QUOTE ]


Stove will tell that the flop is dry as an e'fin bone and the guy called a flop bet. Stove will tell you there's a good chance you are behind on the turn and maybe you should take the FC or this is the perfect player to induce a bluff on the river with K high.




[/ QUOTE ]

The flop is dry but it is just jack high, a loose BB or Oink peel a lot with 2 cards higher than 6 and a backdoor. BB can fold As5, As4, As2 and we have 6 outs very often if we are behind. I'm ok to give up against a tag but it's not he case here.

[Carmine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Stove will tell that the flop is dry as an e'fin bone and the guy called a flop bet. Stove will tell you there's a good chance you are behind on the turn and maybe you should take the FC or this is the perfect player to induce a bluff on the river with K high.




[/ QUOTE ]

The flop is dry but it is just jack high, a loose BB or Oink peel a lot with 2 cards higher than 6 and a backdoor. BB can fold As5, As4, As2 and we have 6 outs very often if we are behind. I'm ok to give up against a tag but it's not he case here.

[/ QUOTE ]

My post was not suggesting what was the correct play. Just things we need to consider

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Isn't this just a question of putting him on a range and stoving your hand against it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Mvoss sorry I'm bringing this up on your post. It's just something that has been irking me for awhile.

Why is it in the past six months or so that this forum feels the only way to come to a conclusion about a hand is to stove it. They don't consider the action, the players, hand reading skills, nothing.

Do I really need a computer program to tell me against a guy defending 70% of his hands that i'm ahead 22/3x/44/55/6x/7x/88/99. That I need to discount Jx slightly because of flop play. Does stove tell me if the turn check is correct agaisnt this particular player.

I'm sorry but it's like people forgot to think for themsleves. Few stratgey discissions anymore.

RZK wants to know why OP didn't bet the turn. Well e'fn stove it dude. Stove will tell that the flop is dry as an e'fin bone and the guy called a flop bet. Stove will tell you there's a good chance you are behind on the turn and maybe you should take the FC or this is the perfect player to induce a bluff on the river with K high.

I don't understand why we all bother posting here anymore. Just e'fin stove it!!


Okay, I feel better now.

[/ QUOTE ]
for the river play, coming up with the right hand range is all you need to do. that's where hand reading comes into play. then you stove it and have an answer. stove can't often definitively answer questions about flop/turn play, but it is pretty much perfect for this spot. it's all about being able to get to the answer in 5 seconds at the table, though.


re: this specific part of your post...

"Do I really need a computer program to tell me against a guy defending 70% of his hands that i'm ahead 22/3x/44/55/6x/7x/88/99. That I need to discount Jx slightly because of flop play."

including 88 and 99 is pretty sketchy based on preflop and flop, and even if you can say all of this, it still doesn't answer the question posed in the OP. should he raise or not. how much should you discount Jx in your pokerstove? which 3x hands should we include. is our equity so high that it can overcome folding the best hand to a 3-bet even 1% of the time?

guess i just don't really get what you're saying. all you do in this spot is mentally pokerstove the situation and post "yes, i think you have the equity to raise/fold vs. his wide range." pokerstove is the only way to get a real number. then we can start debating the hand range, but you have to start somewhere.

[globalboy]

What would you do if he 3-bet? Asking because you need to look at this from his perspective.

[milesdyson]

if you read my post you can tell that i would be folding to a 3-bet. also, i haven't actually answered the OP's question, i just wanted to argue with the criticism against pokerstove's use in this river decision. my initial thought is that you're going to have the equity to value raise here. i would likely realize this at the table and still just call the river bet because i never want to fold and always want to see his cards.