JJ against river aggression $25nl

RobBizzle · #1 05-29-2007, 05:42 PM

I think that this should be a fold, cause the big bet on the river with no previous aggression seems to always be a big hand. What do you guys think?

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.25 BB (10 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

MP2 ($23.24)
MP3 ($24.74)
CO ($23.90)
Hero ($24.71)
SB ($10.83)
BB ($6.03)
UTG ($9.25)
UTG+1 ($28.50)
UTG+2 ($13.46)
MP1 ($8.70)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
5 folds, MP3 raises to $1, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.5, 2 folds, MP3 calls $1.50.

Flop: ($5.35) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $3, MP3 calls $3.

Turn: ($11.35) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero checks.

River: ($11.35) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP3 bets $11.35, Hero???

Stonewalled · #2 05-29-2007, 05:49 PM

Preflop: Might make the re-raise a little larger ... or call.

Like the flop and turn.

Not sure about the river without a read. Big river bet = big hand or bluff most of the time. There are lots of hands that beat you, of course. Meh, without a specific read, I call most of the time, and call myself a donkey afterwards.

jedi · #3 05-29-2007, 06:02 PM

Well, you checked behind on the turn to control the pot and possibly induce a bluff. I think given the check on the turn, you should call here, unless you KNOW that villain won't peel off the flop with just overcards (or a hand like 88 or 77 which flopped a gutshot as well). Certainly could be a bluff with AQ trying to push you off of AK. Who knows what these players have?

I call and make notes accordingly.

RyanCMU · #4 05-29-2007, 06:51 PM

If your going to 3bet preflop do it right, make it at least $3.50...

As played, size your flop bet better, I just make it $5.

Without any real reads on the player, I will just assume he wouldnt open and call a 3bet with 78 and I don't think he would open 66, and I think he folds 44 and 22 on the flop, even though your bet is really weak, I still think he folds them...

So, we are behind - TT, 99, QQ, and horribly played AA and KK (which are unlikely). And, he can have lots of hands here, you 3bet really weak, you bet the flop really weak, and you checked the turn, he could be betting this river with lots of hands here that we beat, I call this all day and expect to be good most of the time...

RyanCMU · #5 05-29-2007, 06:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Might make the re-raise a little larger ... or call.

Like the flop and turn.

Not sure about the river without a read. Big river bet = big hand or bluff most of the time. There are lots of hands that beat you, of course. Meh, without a specific read, I call most of the time, and call myself a donkey afterwards.

[/ QUOTE ]

You came out with the correct conclusion, but your thought process to get there is not complete...

And people seem to always have this problem; There isn't always a "such and such means such and such."

You have to look at each situation as a different and use the knowledge you have to get your conclusion...

With this situation, look at the hand from the villains point of view, our Hero while initially it looks strong has actually played the hand fairly weak, and if Im villain I think I have a good chance to take the hand away a lot on the river and I think my AT or 88 is good enough to bet the river after the action... heroes hand to bad villains automatically looks a lot like a missed AK/AQ ish.

You have to learn to not just think of "xxx must mean yyy" but also put yourself in villains head and take a good look at how they might perceive the hand to play out...

So yea you got the right conclusion (in my opinion) however, you gotta include the other facts in making your choice, and then you won't call yourself a "donk" after haha, ease up on yourself...

I really hope that makes sense, because Im really bad at typing my thoughts out, as everyone he reads my posts probably has figured out haha..

And SHOTGUN this topic for my eventual 1600th post**

RobBizzle · #6 05-29-2007, 07:16 PM

Thanks a lot Ryan. Your post really got me to think differently about this hand. I am looking forward to your 1600th post btw.

Stonewalled · #7 05-29-2007, 07:32 PM

Thanks Ryan. Much appreciated, and helpful.

I agree with what you're saying, too, and I didn't mean to suggest that "big river bet equals ..." is a general principle to be applied indiscriminately. Reads are absolutely paramount.

Raised2Win · #8 05-29-2007, 07:40 PM

Its kinda close, in the other hand u showed alot of weakness on turn, but what hands is he calling OOP on flop and potting the river that we beat ? its not normal for hands like AT to make that bet.

If u have no history, I would look the guy up here expecting to win 1/3 or little better.