16T: Tough Bubble Decision

[TruFloridaGator]

Simple ICM problem & I know I probably know his range best, but is there an easier way to determine whether to push or not actually in the game? I think this is one of the harder spots in SNGs. He is an awful player, capable of making wide calls, but was calling tight 5h and on the bubble thus far. He has seen me shove 3 awful hands though, lose 2 & suckout once. SNGPT says its breakeven if he is calling 18%. Should I side on the fact that he has seen me push crap or should I stay aggressive hope he realizes I can hurt his stack?

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t400 with t25 antes (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t2730)
Button (t2185)
Hero (t3070)
BB (t5515)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, Hero ?

[peterchi]

I think I let this go, he's a little bit too big.

[Kevin8423]

I definitley fold this. Winning the hand doesn't give you the biggest stack so you can't own the bubble after taking this down, and you also aren't in trouble with two shorter stacks.

I'm not looking to get my chips on the line in marginal spots like this against the big stack, especially not if you've already showed him that you are pushing garbage.

[agnoke10]

yea, i let this go, at 300 600, im pushing this tho

[BBQSquirrel]

Easy fold because of your poor image.

[AMT]

if hes bad/capable of calling really wide and you have a poor image fold.


In a vacuum Id shove this hand against a lot of players. As posted, fold.

[TruFloridaGator]

Yeah, this is one of those where I just gave him too much credit to make a good fold.

[Schmitty 87]

Yeah, pushing 85o here is an enormous spew vs. anyone but regulars. I have gotten looked up in these spots by 89. I don't even shove 87s here (bad??)

[malnek]

winning those 400 chips does nothing to help you in this bubble fold

[aghasax]

I'm not sure what to do in these situations myself, and I'm also not sure this is only a simple SNGPT question. At least my reasoning for normally folding this follows somewhat another path.

We're the second biggest stack, so the two smaller stacks have more pressure on them to gain chips. The EV for us of one of them busting without us being involved is difficult to asses but it is huge, so we really want that EV. Gaining the chips in this hand is not going to change our status as second biggest stack, but if we push and lose we also lose the future EV of one of the others busting. But I might be overvaluing this future EV.

I'm also thinking that in the long run it might be worth it to fold the crappiest hands even though it might be +EV to push in this specific spot. At least the regulars will pick up on your pushranges.