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| View Poll Results: I am/am subject to: | |||
| Neurotic |
   
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35 | 10.20% |
| Depressed |
  
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69 | 20.12% |
| Obsessive-Compulsive |
  
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38 | 11.08% |
| A.D.D. |
  
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36 | 10.50% |
| Bi-Polar |
  
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20 | 5.83% |
| Anxiety Disorders |
  
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44 | 12.83% |
| Psychotic |
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11 | 3.21% |
| Multiple Personalities |
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8 | 2.33% |
| Sex addiction |
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23 | 6.71% |
| Schizophrenic |
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9 | 2.62% |
| Normal |
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34 | 9.91% |
| Other: Please elaborate |
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16 | 4.66% |
| Voters: 343. You may not vote on this poll | |||
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#2021
11-21-2007, 05:44 PM
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Re: Thanksgiving Gone Wrong - Werewolf
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] No reason to give Epi the boot, he corrected his mistake today and FMX was able to make the right play. [/ QUOTE ] Actually, he PM'd me last night and explained his masterplan. Luckily, it all came out well. The tie thing on the penultimate day really cleared him. He literally cannot be a wolf if he won't switch. I'm not sure what chim could do about that. [/ QUOTE ] The truth is.. there was almost nothing I could do to win. My odds from 7 handed hand to be under 1%. I think its pretty insane I even made must lynch. Hence the Zurvan kill, I had to stretch to a pretty insane level to try to win. It was a lotta fun, and I'm really happy I got that far.. but I never really expected to win. 
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#2022
11-21-2007, 05:45 PM
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Re: Thanksgiving Gone Wrong - Werewolf
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] No reason to give Epi the boot, he corrected his mistake today and FMX was able to make the right play. [/ QUOTE ] Actually, he PM'd me last night and explained his masterplan. Luckily, it all came out well. The tie thing on the penultimate day really cleared him. He literally cannot be a wolf if he won't switch. I'm not sure what chim could do about that. [/ QUOTE ] i still quite like my thinking, although i admit i couldnt come up with the right numbers in my mind.
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#2023
11-21-2007, 07:15 PM
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Re: Thanksgiving Gone Wrong - Werewolf
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[ QUOTE ] Chim, i don't think I've seen an end-game wolf performance that good since KM & Tokyo in Turf Wars 1. Excellently done. You did a fantastic job of driving the thread yesterday & today, and forcing zen & epi in to hyper-defensive super-wolfy mode. Zen, epi: I hope you consider the way this game turned out, and use it to evaluate your end-game theory. [/ QUOTE ] I have nothing to re-evaluate. I found my villagers and one of them pulled the rug out on me because he panicked. Your way of thinking is what nearly lost us the game. chim refused to talk about the game and tried to create a trap for me. It's perfectly clear that the guy setting the trap is doing so because he has the information advantage. [/ QUOTE ] My way of thinking (constantly reevaluating the situation) would have gotten the wolf lynched 3 days earlier, and it doesn't give the wolf an ass ton of information to use to create an ideal final 3 situation. This was literally the only final 3 combo that chim could win, and he only knew that because of the preponderance of "I'm never ever in a bazillion years voting x because I've found my villager and nothing can ever ever ever change my mind"
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#2024
11-21-2007, 07:20 PM
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Re: Thanksgiving Gone Wrong - Werewolf
Also, in regards to end game theory. I firmly believed everything I typed at the end.
As a villager you should be fairly content with a non-you lynch. If I am the villager there, you both have a > % chance of being the wolf than I do. I really feel asking another villager to try to clear you is really bad and so exploitable by a wolf. As a villager, my goal is the same in the round before must lynch. I'm trying to not get lynched because I know I'm a villager. There are targets I would prefer, sure.. but when it comes down to it a non-me lynch is +EV to my team. I discussed this with KM a long time ago when she didn't want to switch to another villager when they were tied because she thought they were a better villager. With the rare exception of when you think they may be the seer, it is always +EV for a villager to not get lynched if they can help it.
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#2025
11-21-2007, 08:19 PM
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Re: Thanksgiving Gone Wrong - Werewolf
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I discussed this with KM a long time ago when she didn't want to switch to another villager when they were tied because she thought they were a better villager. With the rare exception of when you think they may be the seer, it is always +EV for a villager to not get lynched if they can help it. [/ QUOTE ] which kyro actually did once in a turbo to great effect
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#2026
11-21-2007, 08:35 PM
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Re: Thanksgiving Gone Wrong - Werewolf
[ QUOTE ]
Also, in regards to end game theory. I firmly believed everything I typed at the end. As a villager you should be fairly content with a non-you lynch. If I am the villager there, you both have a > % chance of being the wolf than I do. I really feel asking another villager to try to clear you is really bad and so exploitable by a wolf. [/ QUOTE ] It's more that I wanted to get you to talk about me, rather than nothing. All my posts are saying, you're not a villager, so all mine are saying, yes I am, this is why, what's wrong with the story? I'm kind of hoping that the fact that you are not answering is suspicious. Sadly, the other two simply weren't interested in looking at you as a wolf. I felt it was pretty apparent that I was struggling to answer your questions because I have an information gap. I guess I should be flattered people think I'm so good at wolfing I could fake being clueless. I felt we overthought it. We had it locked when we decided on Herbie->you. My notion that complications only help the wolf were pretty much borne out. You didn't even begin to convince me though. Only epi making his play put doubt in my mind.
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#2027
11-21-2007, 08:38 PM
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Re: Thanksgiving Gone Wrong - Werewolf
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] No reason to give Epi the boot, he corrected his mistake today and FMX was able to make the right play. [/ QUOTE ] Actually, he PM'd me last night and explained his masterplan. Luckily, it all came out well. The tie thing on the penultimate day really cleared him. He literally cannot be a wolf if he won't switch. I'm not sure what chim could do about that. [/ QUOTE ] i still quite like my thinking, although i admit i couldnt come up with the right numbers in my mind. [/ QUOTE ] I think that lynching herbie->chim was the clear percentage play for you. In retrospect, I pushed "you lose as a wolf if we get down to three" way too hard, because I didn't actually think you were a wolf even a little bit until about 20 mins before close. Let's face it, if we had gone to last three, I'm going to struggle to have someone lynched who I've said a ton of times is cleared in my view.
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#2028
11-21-2007, 08:42 PM
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Re: Thanksgiving Gone Wrong - Werewolf
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I discussed this with KM a long time ago when she didn't want to switch to another villager when they were tied because she thought they were a better villager. With the rare exception of when you think they may be the seer, it is always +EV for a villager to not get lynched if they can help it. [/ QUOTE ] which kyro actually did once in a turbo to great effect [/ QUOTE ] I don't doubt it's often the right play. And maybe if everyone thinks that, it is best to play it that way. I did in the end. I was stuck thinking, jeezus, it's so obvious this guy's the wolf, but no one is interested in looking at his story *at all*. So well played, chim. Obviously you knew the way to spin it to epi and sol, who had even said several times he didn't believe I could be the wolf.
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#2030
11-21-2007, 10:27 PM
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Re: Thanksgiving Gone Wrong - Werewolf
[ QUOTE ]
i stopped taking notes after mets claimed because i though the game was basically locked up i tihnk i also lost a few. here is what i did have though... -------------------------- metsandfinsfan 2:49 PM Day 1: dmk Epicurus Our House Solanthos seer: <----- Zurvan 2:56 PM Day 1: drzen Epicurus Nicholasp27 VoraciousReader VoraciousReader 3:01 PM Day 1: dmk kokiri Our House sixfour seer: luckayluck Epicurus 3:37 PM Day 1: kokiri Nicholasp27 sixfour Zurvan Nicholasp27 4:45 PM Day 1: DustinG Our House VR or Zurvan Solanthos or Kokiri Our House 5:08 PM Day 1: DustinG VoraciousReader Zurvan [notpostedyet (at this point it was chim / chuckles / drzen / sixfour who hadn't posted)] Kokiri 5:15 PM Day 1: nfi. VR, or Nich of the people who've posted, but #1 is chuckles on a process of elimination HerbieGRD 5:21 Day 1: Kokiri Luckay Chuckles (hasn't posted yet) Chim (hasn't posted yet) DustinG 9:14 PM Night 1: fmxda luckay?!? kokiri ???? seer: zurvan Our House post-death (already knowing zurvan was villager), Night 1: One of epi/kokiri dusting voraciousreader drzen wdcbooks (for fun) Night 1: dusting voraciousreader zurvan (strongest read) epicurus? chuckleslovakian 9:29 AM Day 2: chim17 Nicholasp27 sixfour Zurvan Zurvan 9:47 AM Day 2: Epicurus Herbie kokiri metsandfinsfan Shorline 10:24 AM Day 2: Contigent on Epicurus if he isn't: chim17 chuckleslovakian dustin sixfour if he is: dustin epicurus fmxda nicholasp27 metsandfinsfan 5:17 PM Day 2 chuckleslovakian drzen dusting epicurus fmxda 5:21 PM Day 2: chuckleslovakian epicurus solanthos zurvan [/ QUOTE ] holy [censored] the amount of you who listed me as a wolf is just ridiculous this would have been my best wolf performance ever if I was evil this game even Shorty thought I was evil?!?!
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