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#21
11-04-2007, 05:37 PM
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Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 10
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Hey, do you guys still wong even when you think a line is way off? Example this weekend: Clev -1.5 I think is pretty far off. I figure them to be a 3 to 3.5 point fav over the Hawks (and have bet that appropriately). Wong would say bet Sea +7.5 here. But obv if I think the line should be Sea +3 the game doesn't have wong value (especially since the line would only move +4.5 from my "fair value", not +6). So in this situation would you normally continue to wong Sea +7.5, or would you lay off? - C - [/ QUOTE ] That's up to you, but to me, a wong is a wong. Obv it is far more likely you are wrong than they are. [/ QUOTE ] I feel like it may be worth exploring a bit more. I completely understand the idea that I'm gonna be more wrong than they are. But there are gonna be times where you feel the line is wrong, and that's why you're betting. Next question...what happens when a bet isn't a wong and public/square money pushes it to a wong? Has anyone explored the profitability of when this happens? - C -` 
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#22
11-04-2007, 06:38 PM
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Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 10
Whew glad I held off on SD. Got SEA going right now at +8, GB and BUF are in the books.
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#25
11-04-2007, 07:25 PM
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Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 10
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Hey, do you guys still wong even when you think a line is way off? Example this weekend: Clev -1.5 I think is pretty far off. I figure them to be a 3 to 3.5 point fav over the Hawks (and have bet that appropriately). Wong would say bet Sea +7.5 here. But obv if I think the line should be Sea +3 the game doesn't have wong value (especially since the line would only move +4.5 from my "fair value", not +6). So in this situation would you normally continue to wong Sea +7.5, or would you lay off? - C - [/ QUOTE ] That's up to you, but to me, a wong is a wong. Obv it is far more likely you are wrong than they are. [/ QUOTE ] I feel like it may be worth exploring a bit more. I completely understand the idea that I'm gonna be more wrong than they are. But there are gonna be times where you feel the line is wrong, and that's why you're betting. Next question...what happens when a bet isn't a wong and public/square money pushes it to a wong? Has anyone explored the profitability of when this happens? - C -` [/ QUOTE ] This was discussed ad nauseum in the week 8 thread, and the consensus seems to be that it's so hard to tell the difference between the public $$$ and sharp $$$ line movements it's almost a non-factor for these.
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#27
11-04-2007, 08:09 PM
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Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 10
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] That figgie should basically seal SEA +7.5. [/ QUOTE ] dooood, ur better than that [/ QUOTE ] better than what? I didn't say anything. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] NO GARBAGE TD'S PLZKTHX
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#28
11-04-2007, 08:22 PM
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Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 10
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] That figgie should basically seal SEA +7.5. [/ QUOTE ] dooood, ur better than that [/ QUOTE ] better than what? I didn't say anything. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] NO GARBAGE TD'S PLZKTHX [/ QUOTE ] Like I said...sealed. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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